Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose May performances generally differ dramatically from their stats in April. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both April and May over the last three years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Roger Cedeno, OF, NYM: +.129 BA; +.352 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	239	27:47	.184/.265/.230
May	291	34:41	.313/.387/.460

03Apr	70	3:17	.214/.247/.286

While Cedeno's plate discipline looks quite poor, his overall performance this April actually exceeded his three-year monthly average. Admittedly he isn't guaranteed a starting job any longer thanks to his terrible stats thus far, but Jeromy Burnitz's injury should give Cedeno ample opportunity to secure a lineup spot assuming his numbers shoot upward in May. Anyone seeking to acquire Cedeno takes a definite risk, however his BA and especially SB upside suggests you should try to buy low right now.

Wil Cordero, 1B, MON: +.103 BA; +.352 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	166	13:20	.241/.300/.343
May	160	14:27	.344/.401/.594

03Apr	48	8:11	.208/.321/.333

These numbers may appear fairly atrocious, however platoonmate Jeff Liefer compiled a .161/.203/.286 in April with only a 3:16 BB:K in 56 at-bats. Yet while Liefer may possess more power and overall upside, he doesn't normally post better numbers until late summer, leaving the first base job completely open for Cordero assuming his performance jumps in May as usual. Adventurous owners might look to acquire Cordero now for a minimum price, hope he excels in May, and then flip him to another team at the end of the month when he should begin declining.

Damion Easley, 3B, TB: +.120 BA; +.329 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	135	13:22	.193/.297/.274
May	112	13:21	.313/.391/.509

03Apr	65	2:11	.200/.224/.292

Detroit dumping Easley still looks like one of the dumber moves in recent memory, although I'm growing concerned about his performance in Tampa. However we also believe he could excel in May, which is easily his best month historically. If you're willing to take a chance on Easley, you might reap a nice benefit if you acquire him now.

Jim Thome, 1B, PHI: +.081 BA; +.324 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	226	38:75	.217/.337/.487
May	275	61:82	.298/.425/.604

03Apr	97	18:28	.227/.347/423

Thome generally improves through the end of July before slowing down towards the end of the season, and he also shouldn't post an OPS below 1.000 in any month until this September. His power numbers may wind up slightly lower than expected thanks to facing the tougher pitching in the NL, but Thome appears quite capable of easily surpassing 100 RBI, 100 runs, and 40 homers. The media attention afforded his early struggles may increase his value since we've seen other sources extol his traditional summer improvement, but you still might be able to acquire Thome right now at a welcome discount.

Todd Helton, 1B, COL: +.097 BA; +.298 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	266	50:42	.305/.415/.602
May	291	66:40	.402/.504/.811

03Apr	98	24:11	.337/.464/.633

Prior to the season we thought Helton's back problem suggested a permanent power decrease, he's not only performing above his usual level, his .24 walk rate and excellent overall skill level indicate he should maintain a fantastic BA. We see no obvious indication that his power is gone, so while we remain concerned about his health issues, he looks like a fine fantasy pick right now. Look to acquire him if you need offensive help.

Jerry Hairston, 2B, BAL: +.110 BA; +.251 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	155	11:21	.200/.269/.277
May	145	11:15	.310/.356/.441

03Apr	84	12:14	.298/.394/.452

While his league-leading SB total gives him excellent value right now, he's displaying excellent all-around leadoff skills and appears headed for a truly impressive breakout season. We can't expect him to match most of his previous May improvement, but even maintaining his April production for a second month would rank as an impressive accomplishment. He ranks among the best second baseman in roto right now, and although he appears too expensive to actively target in most leagues, certainly wait to see how he performs in May before considering other actions.

Ryan Klesko, 1B, SD: +.066 BA; +.244 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	235	37:37	.281/.378/.502
May	265	53:41	.347/.452/.672

03Apr	86	13:20	.267/.366/.535

Although Klesko's numbers appear quite good, his skills aren't at the same level from previous seasons, so I'm not sure we'll see a dramatic BA spike. A succession of minor injuries also apparently leaves him bereft of speed, and the multiple holes in San Diego's lineup prevent from accumulating much quantitative value in any category save homers. While you should wait for his normal May improvement if you already own Klesko, don't target him in trade talks.

Fred McGriff, 1B, LA: +.066 BA; +.229 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	266	34:46	.244/.320/.376
May	290	32:49	.310/.377/.548

03Apr	94	8:19	.245/.304/.404

After opening the year in a dreadful slump, McGriff rebounded to exceed his normal April OPS of .696. Of course he usually never drops below .820 in any other month, so McGriff should remain extremely productive even in an unfriendly hitters' park like Dodger Stadium. See if his owner still focuses on the slow start and attempt to acquire him for nice discount.

Tim Salmon, OF, ANA: +.064 BA; +.224 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	256	46:57	.215/.342/.387
May	265	63:61	.279/.421/.532

03Apr	98	11:24	.316/.385/.541

Normally one of the slowest starters in the majors, Salmon largely carried Anaheim this May as a succession of key Angels landed on the DL. His 7 homers and 18 RBI leave him among the most prolific power hitters in the majors, and if Salmon can match this pace for through May, he should finally end his status as the best player never to make an All-Star team. Of course Mike Scioscia's responsibility as AL manager likely would have led to Salmon receiving an All-Star game berth under most circumstances. Fortunately Salmon's performance thus far will avoid charges of favoritism, and while his somewhat weak plate discipline suggests his batting average will drop, I expect him to maintain his quantitative output throughout the first half. I wouldn't target Salmon in trade due to his hot start and the general increase in his perceived value thanks to Anaheim's post-season run, however you should wait two months before taking any action to remove him from your team.

Chris Singleton, OF, OAK: +.084 BA; +.207 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	230	11:41	.222/.254/.348
May	232	11:33	.306/.343/.466

03Apr	72	3:14	.306/.325/.431

Perhaps Oakland's focus on plate discipline has helped Singleton's concentration even if he isn't demonstrating any improvement in his walk rate. He isn't displaying power or speed right now, however his solid batting average and the likelihood he'll maintain a .300+ BA at least for another month makes him a useful player to own in most leagues. Singleton's hot start means you shouldn't target him at the moment, but since Oakland will face easier opposition this month, wait at least a month as his trade value should peak around the end of May just before Dye returns.

Jeff Conine, 1B, BAL: +.059 BA; +.194 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	201	12:22	.259/.301/.398
May	258	19:40	.318/.358/.535

03Apr	85	12:11	.271/.360/.412

Normally Conine develops plate discipline as the season progresses, so his early performance indicates he's still capable of pushing a .300 BA. While the Orioles' general offensive malaise will keep him from obtaining impressive quantitative marks, his hot starts suggests current Conine owners likely netted a nice bargain this year. Don't specifically target him since his 18 RBI and 3 SB probably have made him too expensive to add, but if you can grab him at his pre-season value, I see no reason not to acquire him.

Bernie Williams, OF, NYY: +.063 BA; +.182 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	233	36:32	.249/.350/.408
May	308	36:50	.312/.388/.552

03Apr	102	18:9	.353/.446/.608

In most years I'd recommend pestering Williams' owner this week until he agreed to a deal. Unfortunately for bargain hunters, the Yankees' great start helped push Williams to his best start in several seasons. He currently ranks with the top batters in the game, boosting his value past the point where you should target him, however his continually excellent skills mean current owners should wait in the expectation he'll maintain these marks most of the year.

Ben Molina, C, ANA: +.084 BA; +.165 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	215	12:21	.270/.318/.321
May	178	4:12	.354/.364/.440

03Apr	85	2:4	.271/.287/.388

As one of the more impatient hitters in the game, Molina's lack of plate discipline leaves his performance rather subject to random fluctuations, however his annual May improvement appears due to an improved contact rate. He already owns a .95 mark this year, so we have every expectation that we should see a welcome bump in his production. If you're looking for a catcher upgrade, now is a good time to acquire Molina.

Jay Payton, OF, COL: +.059 BA; +.165 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
April	232	14:31	.237/.281/.353
May	135	9:20	.296/.340/.459

03Apr	102	6:14	.314/.360/.529

We can attribute most of this fantastic start to Coors, although he also isn't performing poorly on the road. Nevertheless his injury history makes him a risky acquisition since Colorado possesses several solid alternatives in left field, and Payton's owners already should be rather giddy at his early success. Wait if you own him right now, but explore trade possibilities if you his skills slipping any time soon.

Players that qualified but posted an OPS improvement under .165 include Brian Jordan(+.057 BA/+.163 OPS), Geoff Blum(+.056/+.155), Dean Palmer(+.073/+.145), Omar Vizquel(+.066/+.127), Tony Clark(+.050/+.126), Ivan Rodriguez(+.051/+.116), Mark Kotsay(+.063/+.115), Rey Sanchez(+.057/+.114), Ichiro Susuzki(+.064/+.110), and Joe Randa(+.067/+.108).

Other players who qualified but don't start every day include Denny Hocking(+.108/+.274), Troy O'Leary(+.077 BA/+.202 OPS), Mark Grace(+.081/+.197), and Marvin Benard(+.058/+.191). Any of them would be a reasonable FAAB pickup this week.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Position players with secure starting jobs, solid track records, and home parks in the northern part of the continent where the weather only recently warmed provide some of the best targets for May. Roger Cedeno and Jim Thome in particular should significantly improve on their early stats over the coming months.