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May
4th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Sunday Challenge Conversation, '03 Week 6

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Colorado: 6 Road games: 3 at Atlanta; 3 at Florida.
Houston: 7 games: 4 Home vs. Pittsburgh; 3 Road at Philadelphia.
Cincinnati: 7 Home games: 4 vs. St. Louis; 3 vs. Milwaukee.

7 Home games
Kansas City: 3 vs. Boston; 4 vs. Baltimore.

7 games
Baltimore: 3 Home vs. Detroit; 4 Road at Kansas City.
Pittsburgh: 4 Road at Houston; 3 Home vs. Arizona.

7 Road games
St. Louis: 4 at Cincinnati; 3 at Chicago Cubs.

Teams with six home games: Anaheim, Atlanta, Chicago Cubs, Florida, Montreal, New York Mets, Oakland, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Texas.

All other teams play six games with at least three on the road.


Pitchers of interest with two starts(whom we would start if we owned them):
Jarrod Washburn: Tue:CLE(Ric.Rodriguez); Sun:TOR(T.Sturtze)
Miguel Batista: Mon:PHI(V.Padilla); Sun:@PIT(K.Wells)
Jason Johnson: Mon:DET(N.Cornejo); Sat:@KC(D.May)
Derek Lowe: Mon:@KC(D.May): Sun:@MIN(B.Radke)
Mark Buehrle: Tue:@OAK(M.Mulder): Sun:@SEA(J.Moyer)
Matt Clement: Mon:MIL(B.Sheets); Sun:STL(B.Tomko)
Jeff Austin: Tue:STL(B.Tomko); Sun:MIL(W.Franklin or B.Sheets)
Nate Cornejo: Mon:@BAL(Jas.Johnson); Sun:@TB(S.Parris)
Wade Miller: Mon:PIT(K.Benson); Sat:@PHI(R.Wolf or V.Padilla)
Kirk Saarloos: Tue:PIT(K.Wells): Sun:@PHI(V.Padilla or B.Duckworth)
Jeremy Affeldt: Tue:BOS(C.Fossum); Sun:BAL(P.Hentgen)
Odalis Perez: Tue:@NYM(P.Astacio); Sun:@MON(L.Hernandez)
Ben Sheets: Mon:@CHC(M.Clement);
    Sat:@CIN(J.Riedling, J.Haynes, or C.Reitsma) OR Sun:@CIN(J.Austin)
Brad Radke: Tue:@TB(S.Parris): Sun:BOS(D.Lowe)
Livan Hernandez: Tue:SD(J.Peavy); Sat:LA(Od.Perez)
Pedro Astacio: Tue:LA(Od.Perez); Sun:SD(J.Peavy)
Andy Pettitte: Tue:@SEA(J.Moyer): Sun:@OAK(M.Mulder)
Vincente Padilla: Mon:@ARI(M.Batista);
    Sat:HOU(W.Miller); or Sun:HOU(K.Saarloos)
Kris Benson: Mon:@HOU(W.Miller); Sat:ARI(E.Dessens)
Kip Wells: Tue:@HOU(K.Saarloos); Sun:ARI(M.Batista)
Jake Peavy: Tue:@MON(L.Hernandez); Sat:@NYM(P.Astacio)
Jamie Moyer: Tue:NYY(A.Pettitte); Sun:CHW(M.Buehrle)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@FLO(C.Pavano); Sun:@ATL(M.Hampton)
Woody Williams: Mon:@CIN(J.Riedling); Sat:@CHC(K.Wood)
Brett Tomko: Tue:@CIN(J.Austin); Sun:@CHC(M.Clement)
Colby Lewis: Tue:TOR(T.Sturtze); Sun:CLE(Ric.Rodriguez)

Only deploy in Fantasy Baseball and other leagues that do not count qualitative stats:
Mike Hampton: Tue:COL(A.Cook); Sun:SF(J.Schmidt)
Pat Hentgen: Tue:DET(M.Maroth); Sun:@KC(J.Affeldt)
John Riedling(?): Mon:STL(); Sat:MIL(B.Sheets or M.Kinney)?
Ricardo Rodriguez: Tue:@ANA(J.Washburn); Sun:@TEX(C.Lewis)
Aaron Cook: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton); Sun:@FLO(C.Pavano)
Carl Pavano: Tue:SF(J.Schmidt); Sun:COL(A.Cook)
Darrell May: Mon:KC(D.Lowe); Sat:BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Wayne Franklin(?): Tue:@CHC(M.Prior); Sun:@CIN(J.Austin)
Brandon Duckworth(?): Tue:@ARI(A.Good); Sun:HOU(K.Saarloos)?
Steve Parris: Tue:MIN(B.Radke); Sun:DET(N.Cornejo)
Tanyon Sturtze: Tue:@TEX(C.Lewis); Sun:@ANA(J.Washburn)


Diamond Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: DL(No start)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@MIN(R.Reed or Joh.Santana)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Tim Hudson: Fri:NYY(J.Weaver)
Matt Morris: Fri:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers or R.Wolf)
Kevin Millwood: Wed:@ARI(B.Webb)
Kerry Wood: Sat:STL(W.Williams)
Wade Miller: Mon:PIT(K.Benson); Sat:@PHI(R.Wolf or V.Padilla)
Kevin Brown: Sat:@MON(C.Vargas)
Roy Halladay: Wed:@TEX(R.Drese)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@FLO(C.Pavano); Sun:@ATL(M.Hampton)
Mark Prior: Tue:MIL(W.Franklin)
Josh Beckett: Wed:SF(D.Moss)

Miller, Schmidt, and Prior give us a decent base, and Kevin Brown pitched great this week, so we will leave him deployed against Montreal. Pedro looks like an obvious choice because of Boston's significant offensive advantage, and then since we do not trust anyone in a Cubs/Cardinals series, we will deploy Josh Beckett at home.

Offensively, we are tired of seeing Aramis Ramirez contribute nothing to our team. However he plays four games in Houston this week, so while we would like to add Mike Lowell, we are going to wait one more week. Hank Blalock also is a free agent next Sunday, so we will have better 3B options from which to choose.

The three Rockies sit since Colorado is on the road all week, and with St. Louis playing in Cincinnati, we will deploy Marrero at catcher over Hall.

Our last choice involves the necessary release of Matt Anderson. We completely disagree with Trammell's decision to remove Anderson from closing after only one blown save, however the Tigers also will not present Anderson with many save opportunities.

The best two available closers are Joe Borowski and Tim Worrell(740). Both teams appear fully committed to these pitchers, and both own dominant stats. Each has converted all three of their save opportunities over the last week, both offenses look largely balanced, and neither team will blow out too many opponents. Unfortunately, while we like Borowski's skills better, we are not convinced he will not lose his job to Alfonseca within weeks; Worrell also saves us $10, which we occasionally find very useful. Although I expect the Giants to acquire someone like Ugueth Urbina or Jose Jimenez later in the year, Worrell at least should be solid for a couple months, and hopefully he will not hurt us too badly when he pitches in Coors.


Interview with the Umpire(12th lg; 121st div; 2792nd overall),
Shadow of the Umpire(13th lg; 139th div; 2794th overall), &
Dance of the Umpires(13th lg; 110th div; 2791st overall)
Week 6: May 5-May 11

C	Ivan Rodriguez		1070
C	Eli Marrero		580
1B	Frank Thomas		920
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Ichiro Suzuki		1480
DH	Erubiel Durazo		520

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Wade Miller		990
SP	Kevin Brown		990
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Josh Beckett		700
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 6: 	29370


Internet Challenge

Kevin Millwood: Wed:@ARI(B.Webb)
Wade Miller: Mon:PIT(K.Benson)
Roy Halladay: Wed:@TEX(R.Drese)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@FLO(C.Pavano)
Mark Prior: Tue:MIL(W.Franklin)
Josh Beckett: Wed:SF(D.Moss)
Kurt Ainsworth: Th:@FLO(B.Penny)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, and Wood.

We only need to leave one start on the bench, and Texas's offense has bludgeoned the opposition rather thoroughly over the last couple weeks. While we are mildly concerned about Ainsworth, we see a lot more downside in running Halladay.

As in DC, we will add Tim Worrell(740) for Matt Anderson.

Aramis Ramirez at least will get his road trip here, but if he is still struggling in four days, we likely will punt him for Lowell.

Offensively, we want Thomas sitting in Oakland, Matsui in Seattle, and Larry Walker and Jose Hernandez in Atlanta. While we could leave Thomas and Durazo active, we believe Helton and Preston Wilson will take advantage of Atlanta's uncertain pitching to put up better numbers in a friendlier offensive park.


The Umpire Hunter(10th lg; 382nd overall)
Week 6a: May 5-May 8

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1480
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Preston Wilson		1220
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030

SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Wade Miller		990
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Josh Beckett		700
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 6a: 	29420


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same rules = same rosters and moves for both teams)

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: DL(No start)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Mike Mussina: Wed:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@MIN(R.Reed or Joh.Santana)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers or R.Wolf)
Kerry Wood: Sat:STL(W.Williams)
Kevin Millwood: Wed:@ARI(B.Webb)
Roy Halladay: Wed:@TEX(R.Drese)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@FLO(C.Pavano); Sun:@ATL(M.Hampton)
Mark Prior: Tue:MIL(W.Franklin)

Pedro, Schmidt, and Prior are obvious calls here, and we also like the odds of Schilling winning. Mussina, despite strong opposition, looks fantastic and may join Prior as a permanent rotation fixture. Of the remaining four healthy pitchers, Halladay likely possesses the best shot at a win, although Millwood also is tempting.

Offensively, we are prepared to replace Carlos Pena, Orlando Hudson, and Larry Walker, however we do not see too many available logical replacements. The last week forced me to see the costly error of not owning Juan Gonzalez(1980), so we are going to add him and drop Pena.

Marrero owns a nice schedule edge on Hall, Helton sits in favor of Phelps, Cabrera starts over Jose Hernandez, Preston Wilson joins Walker on the bench, and then we have enough cap room to fit Pujols and Gonzalez over Burrell and Matsui, who plays three in Oakland and three in Seattle.


The Umpire Chronicles(11th lg; 1363rd overall)
& Umpire with a Soul(16th lg; 2842nd overall)
Week 6: May 5-May 11

C	Jason Varitek		1400
C	Eli Marrero		1240
1B	Frank Thomas		2030
1B	Josh Phelps		1480
2B	Alfonso Soriano		2570
2B	Mark Ellis		1100
3B	Scott Rolen		2660
3B	Joe Crede		1150
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	2300
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1820
OF	Albert Pujols		3150
OF	Lance Berkman		2850
OF	Manny Ramirez		2690
OF	Juan Gonzalez		1980
OF	Vernon Wells		1780
OF	Austin Kearns		1600
DH	Vlad Guerrero		3440
DH	Eric Hinske		1750

SP	Curt Schilling		3600
SP	Mike Mussina		2920
SP	Pedro Martinez		2900
SP	Roy Halladay		2010
SP	Jason Schmidt		1990
SP	Mark Prior		1800
RP	Eric Gagne		2560
RP	Keith Foulke		2330
RP	Mike MacDougal		1500
RP	Matt Mantei		1200

Total Salary for Week 6: 	59800


Today's Fantasy Rx: If you are looking for an inexpensive closer to open cap room elsewhere, Scott Williamson and Matt Mantei remain the best picks under 1000. However Tim Worrell, Joe Borowski, Mike MacDougal, and Lance Carter all look like respectable picks, and Cliff Politte could emerge as an intriguing option in the near future. If choosing a bullpen from scratch right now, we would probably take Williamson, Mantei, Worrell, and Borowski while keeping MacDougal on the bench as a potential replacement in case of injury or ineffectiveness and as an alternative for Williamson in weeks where we desperately need a little extra cap room.


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