Today's Fantasy Rx

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Continued technical delays in other areas prevent us from releasing an updated LPR list as we'd hoped, however several pitchers in each league merit comments in addition to those discussed over the past two weeks. This week we're looking strictly at the skill levels of pitchers currently performing among the best in the majors, and unlike the last two weeks, we've ranked them according to overall effectiveness thus far and not skill.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

We've listed the five most recent PQA scores for each pitcher.

40233
Pedro Martinez: 2-1 on a 38:15 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 6 GS with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 41-42 G-F; 2.90 ERA. While I hate to doubt a pitcher who's demonstrated such extreme skill in recent years, I'm quite troubled by the 31-year-old's skills thus far. Pedro's 8.5 K/9 indicates his worst dominance since 1995, and both his 2.5 K:BB and .98 G-F are his lowest marks in over a decade. The intriguing combination in his skills is a great 6.0 H/9, which he's matched with a career-low 3.69 #P/PA. Hitters aren't waiting deep into counts against Pedro, but they also aren't making solid contact when putting the ball in play. I see no reason why he can't rebound as in 2002 to contend for the Cy Young, however I wouldn't target Pedro in trade right now due to these largely aberrant skills.

34432
David Wells: 3-0 on a 23:1 K:BB in 39 IP over 5 GS with 35 H, 1 HR, and a 50-58 G-F; 2.77 ERA. While I'm tempted to advise any pitcher with one walk at the end of April to write a book every year, Wells' opposition mitigates any belief in his ability to maintain this level of effectiveness. He opened in Tampa before facing the Twins and Blue Jays at home, followed by the pitching in Minnesota and Texas. We could argue that he's partially responsible for the slow offensive starts of these teams, but they're also not hitting against anyone else. Everything about Wells' numbers scream fluke, especially his career-worst .86 G-F, and he should slump even before he tires towards the end of summer.

34043
Mark Buehrle: 2-4 on a 20:13 K:BB in 46 IP over 7 GS with 47 H, 5 HR, and a 71-52 G-F; 3.72 ERA. I've never overly liked Buehrle due to his consistently low strikeout rate, so this season's 3.9 K/9 strikes me as particularly unacceptable, particularly when combined with a career-worst 2.5 BB/9. He may deserve a 4-2 record more than a 2-4 mark, however I just see more downside here than potential. At least we shouldn't need to worry about injury problems since he hasn't exceeded 107 pitches in any start, although Buehrle's obviously not someone I'd have any difficulty dealing due to past overuse.

23444
Mark Mulder: 4-1 on a 23:10 K:BB in 43 IP over 6 GS with 37 H, 5 HR, and a 77-38 G-F; 3.14 ERA. Mulder may look locked-in after a slow start, but he faced Detroit and Chicago after opening with two starts against both Seattle and Texas. Of course a drop to 2.1 BB/9 helps compensate for a 4.8 strikeout rate, and a career-best 2.03 G-F helps keep his homer rate at .9 HR/9. The lower strikeout rate almost appears a determined effort by the team, as while Oakland's strikeout rate has fallen from 6.3 last year to 5.6 K/9 now, the American League only dropped from 6.3 to 6.2 K/9 thus far. Regardless of his reduced dominance, we still believe Mulder will fulfill our preseason expectations by finishing the year as the A's top starter, and I'd rather currently own him than any other starter in the league except Mussina and possibly Pedro.

03433
Nate Cornejo: 1-2 on a 6:8 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 3 HR, and a 51-27 G-F; 2.96 ERA. Only one year after Baseball America designated him Detroit's top prospect, Cornjeo appears recovered from his largely disastrous 2002 as he's now the Tigers' best starter. We're obviously worried by the fact he didn't strike out a single Athletic or Oriole in his last two starts, however we like his 2.6 walk rate and believe he can maintain an ERA below the league average. Listen to trade offers, but especially in keeper leagues, don't move Cornejo strictly because he pitches for Detroit.

4322
Jake Westbrook: 1-2 on an 8:9 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 4 GS(5G) with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 47-17 G-F; 2.28 ERA. His strikeout rate deteriorated against tougher opposition, and while a career-best 2.76 G-F limits his downside to some extent, a 3.4 K/9 is nowhere near the level I'd like to see before ignoring a 3.0 K/9. I don't see Westbrook's value reaching much higher without unexpected skill development, so see if he'll net you anything in trade before his value drops.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

We've listed the five most recent PQA scores for each pitcher.

5 DOM, 7 DUL, 3 DIS
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: 1-0 on a 10:5 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 15 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 21-22 G-F; .51 ERA. Hasegawa only ranks behind Brendan Donnelly among baseball's best relievers, however these are not the skills of a dominant reliever. Most of this improvement appears due to a career-best 2.5 walk rate as he's demonstrated little growth in other areas. I certainly wouldn't object to owning Hasegawa if I wanted a solid middle reliever, but I just don't see substantial upside here.

6 DOM, 3 DUL, 3 DIS
Ben Weber: 1-0 on a 12:5 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 12 G with 13 H, 1 HR, and a 26-18 G-F; .55 ERA. The emergence of Brendan Donnelly and Francisco Rodriguez leave Weber in middle relief, but he's continuing to excel in Anaheim's bullpen. Career-highs of a 6.6 K/9 and 2.4 K:BB suggest we shouldn't overly worry about a slightly elevated 2.7 BB/9 or a troublesome 1.44 G-F, and since the Angels' set-up corps rarely will allow many runs to score, we also count on continually helpful qualitative marks from Weber.

2 DOM, 3 DUL, 1 DIS
Scot Shields: 1-0 and 1 Save on a 22:6 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 1 GS(8G) with 17 H, 1 HR, and a 30-18 G-F; .77 ERA. Although his sudden dominance is somewhat surprising after two years of a sub-5.8 K/9, a quick glance at his minor league stats provides us with a solid basis for this performance. He posted a 113:39 K:BB in 107.1 IP at A+ Lake Elsinore(Cal) in 1999 before jumping to AAA Edmonton(PCL) the following year, where he registered a 156:82 in 163 IP over 27 starts. Although he shifted to the bullpen upon his promotion in 2001, Shields' past dominance earned him consideration as a top pitching prospect. Now, after posting a 5 PQA at home against Boston last week, he at least will remain in the rotation until both Appier and Sele return. We see no reason not to roster him in nearly every league.

8 DOM, 3 DUL, 2 DIS
Chad Bradford: 2-2 and 1 Save on a 7:4 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 13 G with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 26-11 G-F; 2.46 ERA. I'm certainly growing concerned here given the problems with his strikeout rate(6.7 '02; 4.3 '03), walk rate(1.6 '02; 2.5 '03), and G-F(3.28 '02; 2.36 '03), however he's looked better in his last few outings now that Oakland isn't only playing Anaheim, Seattle, and Texas. While Bradford's two wins and save may have raised his profile, owners in stronger leagues will recognize his skill problems and might consider moving him. Since I see no reason why he at least won't continue pitching effectively in middle relief, Bradford belongs on rosters in nearly every league.

2 DOM, 2 DUL, 3 DIS
Kris Wilson: 0-0 on a 14:2 K:BB in 15 IP over 7 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 15-20 G-F; 3.00 ERA. In the last week Wilson moved into a middle relief after only pitching sporadically over the first three weeks of the season. Both his 8.4 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 indicate he could dominate in a short role, and while we don't expect Mike MacDougal to lose his job, Wilson at least holds the same shot as Jason Grimsley to grab any excess save opps. Wilson's demonstrated solid command in the past, so this performance looks like a reasonable extension of his growth curve, making Wilson an intriguing pick-up in AL-only leagues.

2 DOM, 4 DUL, 2 DIS
Julio Mateo: 0-0 on an 11:4 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 8 G with 10 H, 2 HR, and a 12-21 G-F; 2.13 ERA. While I expected Mateo to see significant playing time this year, Giovanni Carrara inherited most middle relief innings, and even Sazaki's injury hasn't thrust Mateo into a larger role. Safeco limits the downside of his .57 G-F, and both his 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 demonstrate his growth as a pitcher. Mateo is an extremely safe choice if you need middle relief help, so feel free to roster him whenever needed since he won't hurt you even if he won't earn more than a few bucks of value.

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We took a short break last night to catch a midnight showing of X2: X-Men United. The three recent Marvel Comics' movies, X-Men, Spider-Man, and Daredevil, engendered notably different responses for us as X-Men wasn't great but didn't disappoint us, we felt Spider-Man was a horribly miscast disaster, and Daredevil may have remained truest to the characters involved.

While X2 appears intended primarily for comic fans instead of the wider audience desired for the first movie, the only backstory necessary for viewing is X-Men. The writers nicely continued nearly every character from X-Men, and while the plot isn't overly substantial, the amalgamation of existing storylines creates a solid dynamic for theater audiences. I'm forced to echo other reviews by comparing X2 rather directly with Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, however as ST2 took a quantum leap forward from the inanity in Star Trek: The Motion Picture, X2 makes similar strides above a better initial film. Some of the dialogue remains as contrived as that in any superhero movie and vital plot developments seem somewhat unnecessary, but aside from requiring a sequel, X2 is a worthy entry in a developing franchise. Long live the Phoenix.