Today's Fantasy Rx

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Arizona: Matt Mantei, RH Closer
3-0 and 4 Saves on a 13:3 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 11 G
with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 14-12 G-F; 2.92 ERA.

The sporadic output of the Diamondbacks' offense allowed Mantei to earn three wins before recording a single save, but he's averaged a save every three days since April 19th. His 9.5 K/9 is slightly below his career norm, however Mantei's 2.2 BB/9 indicates he's fully recovered from surgery. Given his 1.17 G-F, Mantei's best mark since 1996, we shouldn't expect any overt homer problems, and with Arizona in position to win over 80 games even without much offensive production, Mantei soon should begin to rack impressive save totals. While I doubt he'll continue to win three games a month, he otherwise looks like one of the most valuable closers in the league, and he's someone to acquire if you need relief help.

Atlanta: Mike Hampton, LH Starter
1-1 on a 4:9 K:BB in 18 IP over 3 GS
with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 25-22 G-F; 3.50 ERA.

Despite the positive trend of a 134 QA log, Hampton's 2.0 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 indicate his ERA could double in the near future. A career-worst 1.14 G-F leaves him vulnerable to homer problems, and while I'm impressed that he's pitched decently against Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Houston, nothing in either Hampton's history or his current skills suggests he'll hold a sub-5.00 ERA. Deal him now since I doubt his value can increase even with liberal doses of Mazzone Magic.

Chicago Cubs: Joe Borowski, RH Closer
0-0 and 4 Saves on an 18:2 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 14 G
with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 13-11 G-F; 1.98 ERA.

While these marks aren't a total surprise given his effectiveness a year ago, Borowski now could hold the Chicago closer's job indefinitely as long as he maintains skills anywhere near his current 11.4 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. The Cubs don't need him in the middle innings thanks to Kyle Farnsworth's rebound, so Borowski should continue as the main short reliever unless Antonio Alfonseca demonstrates unexpected skill after his return. I doubt he'll be available in any league, but I can't think of many better relievers in the majors than Borowski to acquire in the near future.

Cincinnati: Felix Heredia, LH Reliever
2-0 on a 6:6 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 12 G
with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 23-15 G-F; 1.84 ERA.

Heredia's success thus far is shocking given his home park and a strikeout rate, now at 3.7 K/9, that's dropped four straight years. The major skill development here is a jump from 1.16 to 1.53 G-F, which mitigates the downside of pitching in the GAB, but a 3.7 BB/9 is rather questionable even before considering he owns the same strikeout rate. I wouldn't risk owning Heredia in any of the deepest of leagues, so deal or cut him at your convenience.

Colorado: Shawn Chacon, RH Starter
4-0 on a 25:9 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 5 GS
with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 49-30 G-F; 1.04 ERA.

With a 52355 QA log, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 1.63 G-F, Chacon clearly has leapfrogged Jason Jennings as Colorado's ace. Chacon currently ranks among the top few pitchers in the majors in overall effectiveness, and while his inconsistency concerns me, he still looks quite valuable in any league with liberal transaction policies. I wouldn't risk running him at home regardless of his solid qualitative marks thus far, however I see little reason not to wait if you already own him since I doubt you'll receive fair trade value for any Rockies' starter.

Florida: Mark Redman, LH Starter
3-2 on a 38:12 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 6 GS
with 34 H, 2 HR, and a 43-41 G-F; 2.72 ERA.

Redman emerged this April as a dominant starter by jumping his strikeout rate from 4.8 last year to an 8.6 K/9 now. His 333345 QA log demonstrates both consistency and upside, and both his walk rate(2.3 '02; 2.7 '03) and G-F(1.01 '02; 1.05 '03) varied little from his respectable 2002 numbers. Of course since the Marlins possess some of the worst luck in all of baseball, Redman will miss most of May after breaking his left thumb while bunting. Even ignoring the tactical inanity of sacrifice bunts, the difference between advancing a runner one base and potentially reaching base with a well-placed hit doesn't justify the risk of losing any starting pitcher. If your pitcher doesn't display good bunting technique, don't let him bunt. Obviously wait for Redman's return since you simply won't receive the proper value for this potential ace; we believe Redman's upside is worth the risk of a poor recovery that results in him ruining his great qualitative contribution thus far.

Houston: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 9:8 K:BB in 14 IP over 10 G
with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 25-7 G-F; 1.93 ERA.

He excelled for the Astros a year ago, but Stone isn't someone worth owning in almost any fantasy league. Stone's succeeded mainly thanks to allowing few extra-base hits, and neither his 5.8 K/9 nor a 5.1 BB/9 suggest he offers Houston nearly as much as someone like Brad Lidge or even Scott Linebrink. Deal or cut Stone before his ERA rises to a number more appropriate for a reliever with a 1.64 WHIP.

Los Angeles: Darren Dreifort, RH Starter
1-3 on a 33:13 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS
with 28 H, 5 HR, and a 46-25 G-F; 3.77 ERA.

Instead of building arm strength in a long relief role as I expected, Dreifort supplanted Andy Ashby in the starting rotation and currently appears as effective as any time in his career. Staying healthy remains Dreifort's primary concern, however Jim Tracy only allowed him to exceed 103 pitches once thus far, and a 3535 QA log indicates intriguing upside. As long as you don't mind the continuing injury risk, wait on Dreifort as I believe he even might improve on his qualitative performance given his superb skills.

Milwaukee: Matt Kinney, RH Starter
2-1 on a 26:12 K:BB in 29 IP over 4 GS(5G)
with 24 H, 2 HR, and a 34-29 G-F; 2.48 ERA.

Although Ned Yost won't even give him a regular rotation slot, his 2444 QA log in four starts demonstrates considerable upside. All Kinney's skills also support continued development, and while he could succeed in relief, the Brewers desperately need a competent #3 starter. Kinney owns both the background and skill set necessary to fill that role, so look to acquire him as he should maintain a sub-4.00 ERA and correspondingly solid WHIP.

Montreal: Zach Day, RH Starter
2-1 on a 17:15 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS
with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 68-16 G-F; 2.48 ERA.

Day doesn't dominate hitters, owns a weak 4.1 BB/9, and won't receive this level of defensive support all year. Fortunately his 40453 QA log thus far suggests solid long-term potential, and an outstanding 4.25 G-F minimizes his downside. I wouldn't target him in trade talks, but you certainly can wait if you snagged him either in the draft or the early weeks of the season.

New York Mets: Tom Glavine, LH Starter
3-1 on a 19:13 K:BB in 35 IP over 6 GS
with 36 H, 2 HR, and a 58-31 G-F; 2.59 ERA.

Following one of the worst Opening Day starts for a high-priced free agent in recent memory, Glavine rebounded to manage a 53433 QA log in April on the way to posting his usually excellent numbers. While I haven't viewed him as an elite pitcher for a few years, he owns a respectable walk rate, hit rate, homer rate, and a 1.87 G-F, so only his flighty dominance limits his upside. Unfortunately we don't expect the Mets to win many games this year, and Glavine's bound to encounter the defensive lapses that have plagued several of his teammates, so look to deal him before his value falls as in every year once April ends.

Philadelphia: Turk Wendell, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 1:3 K:BB in 7 IP over 5 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and an 8-11 G-F; 0.00 ERA.

We can excuse Wendell's essentially non-existent strikeout rate since he hasn't pitched competitively since 2001, however he only owns a perfect ERA thanks to a very supportive defense. Unless he demonstrates improving dominance in the very near future, both his hit and homer rates will increase, destroying his currently excellent qualitative marks. Deal or cut Wendell before your team's ERA and WHIP rise in conjunction with Wendell's stats.

Pittsburgh: Jeff Suppan, RH Starter
4-1 on a 19:10 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS
with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 60-36 G-F; 1.89 ERA.

We undoubtedly can attribute some of Suppan's success to the four years he spent in the American League, however a 45443 QA log indicates definite upside. All of his skills look quite solid right now, and while his ERA undoubtedly will double over the coming months, I expect him to maintain double-digit draft value for the foreseeable future. Certainly wait on Suppan unless someone makes you a truly impressive offer wherein the pre-season projections of the players involved exceed Suppan's currently lofty value.

San Diego: Matt Herges, RH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on a 12:7 K:BB in 12 IP over 9 G
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 16-8 G-F; .75 ERA.

Other than his traditionally high walk rate, Herges owns excellent all-around skills and looks like the logical favorite for any upcoming save opportunities. The best comparison to Herges right now may be Mike MacDougal, and while we can expect less downside from Herges due to his great home park, he also won't see as many save opps. thanks to San Diego's weak offense. Definitely look to acquire Herges if you see him available in your league; while he won't hold the closer's job all year, anyone owning him in the near future could reap substantial short-term benefits.

San Francisco: Damian Moss, LH Starter
4-0 on a 16:19 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 5 GS
with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 44-41 G-F; 2.35 ERA.

The Giants' solid defense and extremely pitcher-friendly home park remain the primary reasons for Moss' success this year. None of his skills appears particularly solid, and his 41332 QA log suggests little upside. We can't expect him to continue either winning games at his current rate or holding this excellent ERA, so look to deal Moss since you're bound to find someone so intrigued by his performance over the past year that they ignore his awful command.

St. Louis: Kiko Calero, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 15:7 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G
with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 7-15 G-F; 3.46 ERA.

Although we believed Calero could succeed as a starter in the very near future, we never expected him to break camp in the majors and emerge as one of the Cardinals' most reliable relievers. St. Louis' bullpen difficulties even might let Calero try closing in the near future, and while his walk rate and ground-fly ratio certainly worry me, his 10.3 K/9 obviously appears rather impressive for a rookie finishing his first month in the majors. Look to acquire Calero, particularly if you're trolling for any available potential saves.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:MIN(R.Reed)
Curt Schilling: Sat:ATL(Ru.Ortiz) - 14 days after an appendectomy!
Matt Morris: Sun:MON(J.Vazquez)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:FLO(M.Tejera)
Kevin Millwood: Fri:@SD(C.Condrey)
Kerry Wood: Sun:COL(J.Jennings)
Kurt Ainsworth: Fri:CIN(D.Graves)

No starts: Randy, W.Miller, Halladay, Schmidt, Prior, and Beckett.

While we're concerned about Ainsworth's recent performance, we simply can't expect Schilling to pitch overly effectively only two weeks removed from major surgery. The other six starts look relatively good, so we'll hold off on deploying Schilling until he proves his health.

On offense, since Colorado is headed to Chicago and we've experienced a few days of rain in a row, we're going to sit the four Rockies on the road. Dave Roberts will join them on our bench.

The Umpire Hunter(7th lg; 293rd overall)
Week 5b: May 2-May 4

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Frank Thomas		920
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1480
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Aubrey Huff		610

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 5b: 	29920

Today's Fantasy Rx: With NL-only leagues generally requiring lower qualitative stats to remain competitive in ERA and WHIP, NL hurlers with great walk rates are marginally more valuable than their AL counterparts. If choosing between two middle relievers, one with a 9.0 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 and one with a 5.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, the latter one likely will provide you with better qualitative contributions even in NL-only 5x5 leagues.