Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Brendan Donnelly, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 15:7 K:BB in 16 IP over 12 G
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 9-24 G-F; 0.00 ERA.

A season after finishing as the 27th best reliever in baseball despite accumulating less innings than any of the top 30 relievers in baseball aside from teammate Scot Shields, Donnelly now is only behind Shigetoshi Hasegawa among this year's best bullpen residents. Refugees from the Frontier and Atlantic Leagues simply do not normally rank among baseball's most effective pitchers immediately after reaching the majors. Donnelly's performance is testimony to the upside of not spending significant cash on relievers, yet even he can't maintain his current pace. His 8.4 K/9 is a promising mark, however no pitcher can hold a 2.8 H/9, and when his hit rate increases, his homer rate will jump thanks to his .38 G-F. You should probably wait in the hope he'll hold an ERA below his 2.17 mark from a year ago since I can't imagine receiving fair value for Donnelly in trade.

Baltimore: Jason Johnson, RH Starter
4-0 on a 15:10 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 5 GS
with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 44-28 G-F; 2.12 ERA.

While he's not dominating opponents, Johnson ranks fourth in the AL in ERA and OBA while slotting fifth in WHIP, a strong indication that he's finally harnessing his inconsistent skills. A 35433 PQA log thus far demonstrates that he's held an acceptable skill level in every start. While a 4.6 K/9 suggests somewhat limited upside, his 3.0 BB/9 and especially Johnson's career-best 1.57 G-F, roughly a third better than his previous career-best mark from 2002, shows that he might finally reduce his homer rate below his previous career-low of 1.2 HR/9. The combination of a low homer rate and walk rate gives Johnson intriguing qualitative promise, so unless you're completely taken with a good offer, you probably should wait in the expectation he'll maintain a sub-4.00 ERA and helpful WHIP.

Boston: Brandon Lyon, RH Reliever
1-0 and 1 Save on an 8:4 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G
with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 12-25 G-F; 2.08 ERA.

We haven't pursued Lyon in any league even though Chad Fox's injury leave Lyon as the Boston's only designated closer. Robert Person should compete with Alan Embree and Lyon for save opportunities, but I don't see much upside in Lyon's skills under any circumstances. Lyon requires a superb defense to succeed because of his mediocre 5.6 K/9, and a 2.8 BB/9 won't compensate for the qualitative damage incurred if his hit rate rises much above his current 6.9 mark. The most worrisome number in his stat line is a .48 G-F, far below his previous career mark of 1.10 and indicative of probable homer problems. As Lyon's value likely is peaking right now, deal him to anyone desperate enough for saves that they'll offer you an established player with a higher likelihood of success.

Chicago White Sox: Josh Stewart, LH Starter
1-1 on an 11:11 K:BB in 22 IP over 4 GS
with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 36-25 G-F; 3.68 ERA.

Stewart looked like an intriguing prospect in the spring after posting an 11-7 record and 3.53 ERA last year at AA Birmingham, however those stats obscured a weak 5.6 K/9 and marginal 3.4 BB/9, skill ratios barely acceptable for the majors, forget about the Southern League. While we've seen reports that Garland will lose his rotation spot once Wright returns, Garland's outpitching Stewart in nearly every respect, and Stewart's minor league performance thus far indicates he barely merits a AAA rotation slot. A 3033 PQA log against Detroit twice, Cleveland, and Baltimore suggests little immediate upside, and as a 1:1 K:BB is only even mildly acceptable when accompanied by a 9.0+ K/9, I recommend you deal Stewart now before his inevitable demotion.

Cleveland: Ricardo Rodriguez, RH Starter
2-2 on a 20:12 K:BB in 38 IP over 6 GS
with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 54-51 G-F; 3.32 ERA.

Two weeks ago I suggested you shop Rodriguez since he deserved little credit for holding a 2.08 ERA against the Orioles, Royals, and White Sox. Over his last two starts, one in Seattle and one against Anaheim, Rodriguez only managed a 5:4 K:BB in 12 I with 13 H, 2 HR, a 16-16 G-F, and a 6.00 ERA. Fortunately most of his stats still look promising and only the trend exhibited by his 453323 PQA log adequately demonstrates the level of mediocrity towards which Rodriguez's current skill will carry him. You should be able to receive a nice package, particularly from any team already rebuilding, if you deal him now since while I really like Rodriguez' long-term upside, I don't even expect him to keep his starting job for all of 2003.

Detroit: Jamie Walker, LH Reliever
1-0 on a 5:6 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 10 G
with 6 H, 2 HR, and an 8-9 G-F; 2.46 ERA.

While Walker may seem like the one safe Tiger to own given his team-low ERA, only his 8.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 mitigated the effects of his 1.9 HR/9 last season. Now he's someone performing adequately with a 6.1 K/9 and .8 K:BB despite a 2.5 HR/9 in a redesigned Comerica Park now less friendly to pitchers. His limited workload makes him mostly harmless, however I simply see too much downside here to warrant a spot in any fantasy league. Deal or cut Walker before his ERA rises to a level more commensurate with his 1.50 WHIP and corresponding skills.

Kansas City: Miguel Asencio, RH Starter
1-0 on a 13:13 K:BB in 28 IP over 5 GS
with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 49-30 G-F; 4.82 ERA.

MacDougal's saves will keep him employed in most fantasy leagues despite his qualitative problems, but Asencio already is running into expected difficulties. I find nothing impressive about a 32233 PQA log, and while a 4.2 BB/9 is bad under normal circumstances, it's particularly unacceptable next to an equal strikeout rate. A 1.63 G-F continues to mute his extreme downside, but I see little justification for owning Asencio in nearly any league, making him definitely someone you should seek to deal immediately before the Royals face tougher competition.

Minnesota: Johan Santana, LH Reliever
0-0 on a 23:9 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 8 G
with 10 H, 1 HR, and an 11-20 G-F; 1.08 ERA.

Regardless of the benefits of pitching in front of the best defense in the majors, Santana's qualitative stats will rise if he can't bring his 4.9 BB/9 more in line with the 2.9 BB/9 he managed in 33.2 IP out of the bullpen last year. He's obviously ready to succeed in the rotation, however only an injury to a current Twins' starter will provide him with the necessary opportunity. I can't think of many pitchers with more upside, so even though I don't expect his ERA and WHIP contribution to continue at their current levels, you should wait on Santana since I only expect his value to increase.

New York Yankees: Antonio Osuna, RH Reliever
1-1 on a 13:8 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 9 G
with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 10-13 G-F; 1.59 ERA.

Every Yankee starter is succeeding thanks to their established skill level, yet Osuna's ERA is the one qualitative mark on the team that obviously lacks the proper skill foundation. His 1.59 WHIP is a far better indicator of his current abilities than any other mark, and while 10.3 K/9 indicates he's maintaining his dominance, a 6.4 BB/9 indicates a more severe problem. Unfortunately he's not tradable right now since he's on the DL with a strained right groin, but once he returns in another week, see if you can package Osuna to upgrade another position as his ERA and wins' upside should attract some interest in a deal.

Oakland: Barry Zito, LH Starter
4-2 on a 22:17 K:BB in 41 IP over 6 GS
with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 47-58 G-F; 2.63 ERA.

Zito depends on a solid defense more than any of Oakland's primary starters, and while the A's currently own the second-best defense in the majors, we can't expect them to rank that high all season. His 330432 PQA log suggests considerable downside here and neither his 4.8 K/9 nor a 3.7 BB/9 indicate he's capable of maintaining these qualitative marks or his current 23-win pace. Of course Zito surprised me last year by both staying healthy and stealing a Cy Young from superior pitchers on the Red Sox, so I'm willing to give him some benefit of the doubt. However based strictly on the incongruity between his performance and skills thus far, you should explore a deal since I can't imagine his value cresting much higher than its current level.

Seattle: Gil Meche, RH Starter
3-1 on a 29:9 K:BB in 32 IP over 5 GS
with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 28-41 G-F; 2.53 ERAA.

We expected Meche to neither stay healthy nor contribute to the Mariners given his questionable skills prior to his first surgery back in 2000. Instead he ranks among the AL leaders both in ERA and strikeouts, and his 32444 PQA log indicates he's developed consistent skills. Of course he still ranks as an obvious injury risk since he's only 24, yet the Mariners also haven't allowed him to reach 110 pitches in any start this year. I doubt he's available in many leagues, but as long as you don't have to give up more than about $10 of value, attempt to acquire Meche since he looks like a very mart investment right now.

Tampa Bay: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever
1-0 on a 5:1 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 10 G
with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 13-3 G-F; 4.05 ERA.

Somehow Tampa's coaching has succeeded in developing Venafro's skills after the Rangers, Athletics, and Braves failed to teach Venafro command. While obviously we don't have a large sample size to examine, Venafro's first ten games suggest he's evolving into a dependable lefty specialist, and his 4.33 G-F particularly limits his downside. I wouldn't go out of my way to add him, however if you need middle relief help in a very deep league, you finally can acquire Venafro without risking substantial qualitative damage.

Texas: Francisco Cordero, RH Reliever
1-2 and 1 Save on an 18:12 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 14 G
with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 17-15 G-F; 2.16 ERA.

While Cordero's 9.8 K/9 and 1.13 G-F both rank as career-best marks, a 6.5 BB/9 isn't acceptable from someone with designs on closing next year. As Texas owns the second worst defense in the league, I don't see Cordero maintaining his 4.9 hit rate, and any increase in his 1.26 WHIP will leave him exposed to a noticeable ERA jump. I still believe Cordero merits ownership in nearly every league due to his upside, but teams starting to look towards next year should consider a deal if Urbina's owner wants insurance since Cordero will compete with Jeff Zimmerman and the R. Garcias for save opportunities in 2004.

Toronto: Doug Creek, LH Reliever
0-0 on an 8:8 K:BB in 9 IP over 14 G
with 8 H, 2 HR, and a 9-14 G-F; 4.00 ERA.

Doug Linton's demotion leaves Cliff Politte and Creek as the only Blue Jays with ERAs of 4.00 or lower. Unfortunately Creek's control problems remain quite severe, and he looks likely to inflict severe qualitative damage on his owners in the near future given his perennial flyball tendency and the Toronto pen's inability to strand runners. Deal or cut Creek since his ERA and WHIP only should increase over the next several weeks.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Moreso than National League pitchers, AL hurlers benefit more from strikeouts due to the higher number of baserunners thanks to the DH. Especially in sim leagues, target pitchers with good strikeout rates and decent control to fill out your roster.