Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Brad Fullmer, 1B/DH
26/70 for .371/.438/.557 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 12 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 9:9 BB:K.

We joined the Fullmer bandwagon in the offseason as all his skills indicated he would rebound at least to his solid 2000 numbers of .295/32/104. Anaheim's lineup depth allows them to continue providing a good number of RBI opportunities for Fullmer, and the natural development in his patience, as indicated by a career-best 3.60 #P/PA, allows him to take advantage of additional baserunners. The combination of a .13 walk rate and .87 contact rate even makes Fullmer the most disciplined hitter on the Angels who also owns impressive power upside. My only problem here is a career-worst 1.59 G-F, which suggests he won't reach 30 homers this year, however a 25/100 season looks very reasonable and anything below a .300 BA would surprise me. You certainly should wait before taking any action on Fullmer if you need his power and average help, but also don't hold onto him if you find an owner willing to pay for the possibility of 40 homers.

Baltimore: Melvin Mora, OF/MIF
13/48 for .271/.417/.625 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 13 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:11 BB:K.

A year ago Mora posted a .267/.455/.453 in 75 April at-bats on the strength of a 20:15 K:BB while even compiling a 7/10 SB%, and then he only posted a .228 BA over the rest of the season. So aside from his reduced playing time this year and the significant drop in steals, Mora's essentially just copying his performance from 2002. The injuries to Segui and Cordova will enable him to battle Larry Bigbie for starting time, however Baltimore appears quite comfortable with keeping Mora in an all-purpose utility role. Try to leverage Mora's early production this year in a deal for an established starter to avoid the inevitable BA drop.

Boston: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
31/93 for .333/.366/.495 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 5:15 BB:K.

Even though Hillenbrand may soon head to a 3B-needy NL franchise, he currently leads Boston in RBI as he's taken advantage of the great OBPs of the hitters immediately ahead of him in the order. Of course Hillenbrand also posted stunning April numbers in 2002 before deteriorating rather noticeably, so I see no indication we can expect this level of production to continue. He is not a disciplined hitter and does not mesh with the Red Sox's philosophy, so particularly if your league doesn't allow to keep anyone traded to the other league, look to deal Hillenbrand in the very near future.

Chicago White Sox: Sandy Alomar, Jr., C
13/38 for .342/.375/.526 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:1 BB:K.

D'Angelo Jimenez's .297/.396/.549 may be keying this otherwise unproductive offense, but we always expected him to develop into an excellent player. Alomar looked washed-up to many a few years ago, and these stats simply seem beyond him even given his excellent plate discipline. He runs as much risk of injury as any player in baseball every time he plays, so find some team that hates their weak BA and try to deal Alomar for a surprisingly slow starter like Toby Hall or Einar Diaz.

Cleveland: Milton Bradley, OF
30/80 for .375/.433/.613 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%,
and 8:13 BB:K.

While Bradley hit the DL a couple days ago with a strained right hamstring, no other Indian aside from perhaps Ellis Burks is posting even respectable numbers. The good news is that Bradley owns well over a year of big league experience, has demonstrated this kind of upside for years, and only turned 25 on tax day. His power output and limited speed indicate his future belongs in the middle of the lineup, however unless you're depending on a dozen steals from him, you should be ecstatic with this performance. Bradley's injury should heal in two weeks, so despite his great early numbers, see if you can acquire him from an owner irritated at missing a fortnight of stats due to injury.

Detroit: Eric Munson, 3B
9/57 for .158/.246/.316 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:8 BB:K.

I can't find a logical offensive achiever on a team where no one owns an average above .250, more than 2 HR, 9 RBI, or 1 SB. However Munson's establishing himself as a competent third baseman by committing only one error in 19 games, so while he makes over a play less than an average 3B every two games, I doubt the Tigers will notice his limited range as they praise his consistency. Munson may not ever hit for average, and the Tigers won't score enough runs this year to make him overly valuable quantitatively, however anyone looking for a long-term solution at third base could find a very inexpensive solution if they look to acquire Munson now.

Kansas City: Brent Mayne, C
20/58 for .345/400/.603 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K.

No position player contributed more to the Royals' early-season success than Mayne, who finally gave the team good production from a perennial hole in the Kansas City order. Mayne only turned 25 on April 19th, and his consistently respectable plate discipline indicated he was capable of this production for brief periods. Fortunately he combined his hot streak with facing the weakest AL teams while playing home games in the best hitters' park in the AL, so while he won't maintain his start, he should finish the year with between five and ten bucks of value. Unless you can swap Mayne for Posada, I see little reason not to wait with the expectation he at least can echo this performance at times over the balance of the season.

Minnesota: Bobby Kielty, OF/DH
21/62 for .339/.431/.613 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 10:14 BB:K.

Kielty looked like a future star to any sabermetrically-inclined observer since he posted a .294/.401/.514 with a 43:56 BB:K in 245 AB at A Quad City(Mid) after signing with the Twins as a non-drafted free agent back in 1999. He looked ready to start in the majors in 2001, however his unimpressive tools and continued injury problems reduced his value to the Twins. Fortunately they didn't deal him, although Gardenhire appears determined to keep Kielty off the field as much as possible in the hope that Kielty can remain productive and healthy in a part-time role. At least the Twins' struggles against right-handers mean that Kielty starts most games, and since his 1.044 OPS even has him hitting third at times, we can expect him to stay in Minnesota for a few years as one of their most important players. If you need an outfielder with a great average and solid quantitative marks, Kielty's skills also suggest he's someone you want to acquire.

New York Yankees: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
45/116 for .388/.450/.690 with 9 HR, 25 RBI, 26 R, 6/7 SB%,
and a 9:21 BB:K.

I'm more comfortable attributing Soriano's performance to the stupidity of American League pitchers in believing they can sneak pitches past him than acknowledging he'll remain one of the best players in baseball despite not possessing much plate discipline. Most pitchers simply should not throw him hittable pitchers on a regular basis, thereby likely cutting Soriano's OPS to a more tenable .800-.900. However Soriano's .08 walk rate is markedly better than his marks in previous years, and since he owns the power and speed to take advantage of every time he makes contact, we can expect him to maintain this performance. You must own him in most national games, and while I wouldn't pay the necessary price to deal for him in nearly any league, current Soriano owners should wait until you get an offer that will guarantee you a league championship before seriously considering moving him off your roster.

Oakland: Ramon Hernandez, C
25/70 for .357/.418/.557 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:13 BB:K.

Despite Tejada's struggles, Oakland isn't struggling as in previous seasons thanks to production fro, the unheralded parts of the order. Mark Ellis' .299/.358/.505 and Scott Hatteberg's .345/.451/.500 provide an excellent table setting for the heart of the order, but the effectiveness of Terrene Long(.270/.337/.517), Chris Singleton(.294/.315/.397) and Hernandez give this lineup its best depth in years. Unfortunately, while Ellis and Hatteberg should remain productive, I simply don't see the skill support necessary for Hernandez to maintain anything near this level of effectiveness. However his position in the lineup gives him better quantitative opportunities than anyone in the league aside from Posada, so unless you can upgrade another position significantly while obtaining a capable replacement here, wait with Hernandez on your roster. Even a likely reduction of over a hundred points of OPS will leave him a valuable roto contributor.

Seattle: Edgar Martinez, DH
22/61 for .361/.494/.525 with 2 HR, 14 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 17:8 BB:K.

Entering the season I expected Martinez to continue a gradual decline due to health reasons and turning 40 in January. Of course he's proving that turning 40 meant as little to him as any previous age where similar hitters often declined in past seasons. Seattle leads the West precisely because they've gambled wisely on productive veterans dedicated to excellent performances when many contemporaries are coaching or broadcasting. Martinez's ground-fly ratio is his worst mark in a few years, so he won't reach the 27 homers he needs for 300 in his career this season, however if he even can hold a .275/.400/.450 line all year, Seattle should find a way to re-sign him for yet another year. You shouldn't target Martinez due to his ever-present risk of injury, but if you already own, certainly wait with the expectation of continued production along these lines.

Tampa Bay: Rey Ordonez, SS
27/86 for .314/.330/.523 with 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 2:10 BB:K.

Ordonez never has exceeded a .258 BA, .319 OB, or a .336 SLG, nor has he reached even four homers in any professional season. Tropicana should provide him a higher batting average by about 10%, however The Trop suppresses right-handed power to the same extent as Shea Stadium. Ordonez will struggle, he will slump soon, and I wouldn't want to own him when his numbers head south. Deal him immediately to anyone desperate enough to trade for one of the worst hitters in memory.

Texas: Hank Blalock, 3B
30/78 for .385/.442/.628 with 5 HR, 12 RBI, 17 R, 0/1 SB%,
and an 8:11 BB:K.

We can't act overly surprised at this level of production considering a normal development pattern required Blalock to spend nearly all of 2002 in the minors. He posted a solid .307/.363/.457 in 397 at-bats at AAA Oklahoma(PCL) last year. Now, in a great hitters' ballpark, protected by one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and with little pressure on him thanks to Teixeira and continued poor pitching deflecting attention from him, Blalock finally looks like the next great third baseman. While I don't expect him to maintain this level of production, a .300 BA and respectable quantitative marks still will rank as excellent stats in a sophomore season. I doubt you can afford to go get him in most leagues, but if you took advantage of his struggles early last season to nab him at a discount, certainly plan to wait and watch Blalock's development while he's on your roster.

Toronto: Carlos Delgado, 1B
32/88 for .364/.481/.682 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 20 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 19:21 BB:K.

The Blue Jays' catching platoon owns combined numbers upward of .300/.400/.500, but both Greg Myers and Tom Wilson owned good offensive numbers for years. Delgado only posted one truly great season, so a continuation of this performance finally would justify his monster contract extension. My only concern is that he can't hold this batting average with a .76 contact rate, however the OBP depth of the Jays' lineup and Delgado's consistent power output suggests we can expect to see outstanding quantitative stats from him by the end of the year. Anyone needing power numbers should target Delgado, however most owners likely should wait in the hope that Delgado's likely BA drop lowers the price you'll need to go get him.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't undersell your overachievers as players with impressive Aprils seem to carry any skill improvement forward better than those that develop as the season progresses. Players with solid early performances also will maintain more impressive stats and therefore better trade value than strong finishers.