Today's Fantasy Rx

Through April 23rd eight AL starters compiled 3 dominant starts and one future Hall of Famer appears on his way to another batch of Cy Young votes by leapfrogging the pack to five dominant starts. Although Roger Clemens(44444), Mike Mussina(3554), and Esteban Loaiza(4354) look like the best AL starters, six pitchers I did not discuss last week merit your attention.

Among relievers, B.J. Ryan(44444) continues to lead everyone in the AL by dominating in all his appearances while not posting any PQA below a 4; no reliever with more than four appearances can match that claim, and Ryan's now pitched in 10 games.

MacDougal and Foulke also still look like excellent investments, however five more relievers have now appeared in no less than nine games while dominating at least in two thirds of these appearances, and they all merit consideration in most leagues.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

4344
Derek Lowe: 3-1 on a 17:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 47-16 G-F; 3.86 ERA. This start must disappoint Lowe owners as he's only faced the Blue Jays twice, the Devil Rays, and the Orioles, so he should have soundly beaten these essentially flawed offenses. Unfortunately his 3.9 BB/9 is a problem, especially when he's allowing 10.4 hit rate even though Boston deploys its best infield defense when Lowe pitches. Even this largely solid PQA log doesn't indicate improving skill since the increased in baserunners negates the boost from an improved strikeout rate, and he also hasn't slipped below a 3.17 G-F since his rookie year. Lowe isn't a bad pitcher to own, but I simply don't see significant upside here.

42354
Tim Hudson: 2-1 on a 21:13 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 5 GS with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 69-25 G-F; 3.64 ERA. Hudson's ever-diminishing strikeout rate continues to worry us, however his control appears roughly respectable, he isn't allowing either a notable hit or homer rate, and his ground-fly ratio remains excellent. His limited win total derives from facing only Seattle and Anaheim until a start against Detroit a couple days ago, when he pitched great, only allowing three earned runs in 7.2 IP, even though he didn't get the win. As long as you're not desperate for strikeouts, Hudson looks like a great pitcher to own in almost any league.

13544
Roy Halladay: 0-2 on a 26:8 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 43 H, 5 HR, and a 61-28 G-F; 4.96 ERA. While Toronto's defense leaves his WHIP vulnerable, both his 7.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 are solid marks that indicate promising qualitative potential. His 2.18 G-F also suggests his 1.4 HR/9 will fall, given Halladay far more upside than downside. Use Halladay's inflated ERA and WHIP to try to snag him from his current owner since Halladay's value only should increase from this point.

0444
Sidney Ponson: 1-2 on a 16:7 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 3 HR, and a 43-21 G-F; 5.01 ERA. Although Ponson looked like an intriguing player prior to the season, his performance this year suggests a potential breakout season if we ignore his first start. He should succeed as long as he maintains his control, and after only allowing a total over two walks over his last three outings, I expect his ERA to continue dropping as he finally establishes himself as Baltimore's ace. While nearly every pitcher I'm discussing today seems mildly undervalued right now, I doubt many owners would mind parting with Ponson at the moment, even if they only receive a low-upside middle reliever in return.

25424
Cory Lidle: 3-2 on a 29:5 K:BB in 30.1 IP over 5 GS with 36 H, 3 HR, and a 43-31 G-F; 6.23 ERA. Any owner paying attention will realize Lidle's 5.8 K:BB and 8.6 K/9 indicate he's already fulfilling Toronto's belief that he'll develop into a #2 starter to support Halladay. Fortunately I suspect several of you play in leagues, particularly mixed leagues, where Lidle's owner might dump him due to his poor ERA. Focus instead on his great skills and respectable 1.35 WHIP as you realize he could win well over a dozen games if Toronto's offense ever starts producing as expected.

24442
Bartolo Colon: 2-1 on a 23:12 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 45-40 G-F; 3.97 ERA. While these aren't the numbers Chicago desired from their new ace, a 6.1 K/9 is somewhat promising after Colon's strikeout rate dropped from a career-best 10.2 in 2000 to 8.1 and then a 5.8 K/9 last year. Any change in that trend is a welcome sign of improvement from Colon, and as long as he can hold this level of dominance and control, he should approach 20 wins thanks to Chicago's great offense.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

We've included the five most recent PQA scores for each pitcher.

10 DOM, 1 DUL, 2 DIS
Aaron Fultz(24355): 0-0 on a 12:2 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 13 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 7-9 G-F; 2.79 ERA. My concern here is that couldn't manage an ERA below 4.56 while pitching home games in PacBell, so expecting him to maintain his current mark seems unreasonably optimistic to me. His .78 G-F suggest his homer rate will rise, however I also admit his dominance and command both appear outstanding right now. Don't target him if you can roster a less volatile right-hander, but some owners might want to risk the occasional qualitative disaster given Fultz's potential to vulture over a half-dozen wins courtesy of the Rangers' offense.

9 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS
Jason Grimsley(54153): 0-1 on a 10:4 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 12 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 14-5 G-F; 1.42 ERA. Although MacDougal's anchored the Royals' early dominance, Grimsley's consistency in middle relief plays a more important part in Kansas City's success. His good control and solid 2.8 G-F makes him an excellent set-up man, especially when slotted between fireballers like D.J Carrasco and MacDougal. I don't expect Grimsley to find a role with more qualitative upside, and he could struggle later this year when homers start flying in the Kauffman Stadium summer, however Grimsley looks like one of the safer middle relievers to own in the league.

8 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Juan Acevedo(42454): 0-1 and 3 Saves on a 6:1 K:BB in 7 IP over 9 G with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 9-7 G-F; 5.63 ERA. Acevedo's ERA makes absolutely no sense given that all his skills rest at acceptable levels. Rivera may return in the near future, however Acevedo still could save another half-dozen games over the balance of the year. Try to pry him from his current owner since Acevedo's ERA looks prepared to plummet.

6 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS
Aquilino Lopez(24345): 0-1 on a 12:5 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 9 G with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 9-8 G-F; 3.12 ERA. We liked Lopez a lot before he added five years in agegate, and we still see a lot of upside for this 28-year-old middle reliever. Toronto's bullpen appears quite unsettled, and since Tam, Creek, and Miller look better suited for traditional middle relief work, Lopez should aid Politte in setting up Escobar. Once the Jays deal Escobar, Lopez even might compete for save opportunities, and although his walk rate is high, Lopez's dominance should keep him in big league bullpens for a long time.

6 DOM, 1 DUL, 2 DIS
Jeff Nelson(14305): 2-0 on a 9:2 K:BB in 8 IP over 9 G with 8 H, 2 HR, and a 9-11 G-F; 4.50 ERAA. Nelson should see the majority of any extra save opportunities when Sasaki misses time, however I don't expect his ERA to fall too much given his consistent flyball problems. He historically posts fantastic strikeout rates accompanied by rather questionable control numbers, and while I like his performance thus far, his two disasters leave me rather cautious in recommending him. Only current Sasaki owners should target Nelson, as although I think he's fairly safe to own, I see significantly less downside in several other middle relievers.

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Clemens has reached a 44444 PQA log this year, and I don't see any signs of slowing. We're even debating adding him to our challenge teams, so he obviously merits consideration in every league. If you need starting pitching, either Clemens and Mussina are the surest bets in the American League.