Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: John Lackey, RH Starter
1-2 on a 16:15 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 5 G
with 36 H, 6 HR, and a 28-38 G-F; 8.51 ERA.

With a staff filled with unpleasant surprises from a return of Appier's injury troubles to the struggles of KRod and Schoeneweis, this disaster from Anaheim's Opening Day starter must worry them the most. Lackey's 5-start PQA log is 02220, suggesting his current talent level belongs on the Tigers more than the defending World Champions. Unfortunately I see no evidence that he'll rebound any time soon, and while he's faced extremely daunting opposition in the Yankees, Oakland twice, and Texas twice, a 5.5 BB/9 isn't acceptable under nearly any circumstances. I certainly wouldn't release Lackey even in shallow leagues since some owner should have faith in him, but he doesn't merit deployment on any staff right now, and you should remain open to offers since you easily could gain more in a deal than by keeping him.

Baltimore: Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter
0-3 on a 15:7 K:BB in 22.1 IP over 4 GS
with 30 H, 4 HR, and a 40-25 G-F; 7.66 ERA.

While Baltimore is fielding an average defense, Lopez's 9.6 hit rate appears responsible for most of his qualitative problems. A 2.8 BB/9 and 4031 PQA log both suggest he retains some skill from last year, and his 6.0 K/9 is even better than his 5.9 mark from a year ago. Even his 1.6 HR/9 seems somewhat fluky given his improved 1.60 G-F. Lopez may not be a great pitcher to own since he won't win many games and remains at risk of occasional disasters, but he's quite likely to finish with stats far superior to his current marks. Take advantage of any "one-year wonder" concern by Lopez's current owner to try to acquire this decent rotation filler at a discount.

Boston: Ramiro Mendoza, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 4:4 K:BB in 10 IP over 9 G
with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 16-14 G-F; 12.60 ERA.

I no longer see many obvious problems on this staff after Howry's demotion and Embree's injury, however Mendoza's still struggling rather badly to the extent that only allowing a run an inning would improve his ERA. Boston fielded one of the AL's best defenses in 2002 and now they're near the bottom of the league, so a drop from 2.04 to 1.14 G-F leaves Mendoza exposed to fielding miscues, particularly when we see his strikeout rate also dropped to 3.6 from 5.3 K/9. The odds of his qualitative marks dropping into a more familiar zone seem ridiculously high, and yet the general uncertainty plaguing Red Sox relievers makes the acquisition of Mendoza a definite risk. I certainly would wait for a rebound if I'd already rostered him but he's not someone to actively seek in trade.

Chicago White Sox: Jon Garland, RH Starter
0-2 on a 10:9 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 4 GS
with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 28-31 G-F; 7.32 ERA.

At least Koch has grabbed three saves while Tom Gordon's won a game, but Garland's contributed nothing to compensate for this early qualitative disaster. Despite only facing Kansas City and Cleveland, his 0250 PQA log indicates he currently possesses significant downside. Josh Stewart's superior performance thus far leaves Garland on the bubble when Dan Wright returns in a couple weeks, and since Garland only will face better opposing offenses, you should consider cutting him in almost any league. Neither his strikeout rate nor his walk rate has improved noticeably since he reached the majors in 2000, and a career-worst .90 G-F leaves him prone to this 1.8 homer rate. You at least should bench Garland for the moment if possible, and see if you can interest someone in a deal based on his impressive performance against Kansas City at home.

Cleveland: David Riske, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 9:2 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 6 G
with 7 H, 2 HR, and an 8-16 G-F; 6.23 ERA.

Riske's current skills suggest he's pitching as well as anyone on staff aside from perhaps Carl Sadler, yet allowing two, 2-run homers thanks to his extreme flyball tendency has left his ERA noticeably bloated. Of course his excellent strikeout and walk rates indicate that Riske remains a relatively effective reliever, and if you can't find any low risk relievers in deeper leagues, Riske's a very acceptable alternative for you to acquire. Not only is there no Cleveland reliever I'd rather own, but continuing troubles for Danys Baez might even give Riske some save opportunities.

Detroit: Matt Anderson, RH Closer
0-1 and 1 Saves on a 3:3 K:BB in 7 IP over 7 G
with 11 H, 3 HR, and a 9-10 G-F; 6.43 ERA.

The good news is that at least Anderson saved the Tigers' one win, but over the last two years he's now compiled an 11:11 K:BB in 18 IP, a far cry from the numbers you want to see from anyone, forget about your closer. His flyball tendency leaves him exposed to high numbers of homers, and as Detroit will be lucky to win 60 games, the odds of Anderson reaching much more than 20 saves appear rather remote as long as he remains a Tiger. You could explore any opportunity to add him, however his currently limited upside and weak skills make him a questionable player to target, so I'd only wait for improvement if I already owned him.

Kansas City: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter
2-0 on a 14:7 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 4 GS
with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 27-18 G-F; 5.12 ERA.

Affeldt returned to the DL two days ago with a recurrence of the blister problems that robbed him of a complete rookie season in 2002. His 4430 PQA log indicates he remains a pitcher with considerable upside, and while there's nothing wrong with his 6.5 K/9, Affeldt's 3.3 BB/9 demonstrates significant progress from the 5.2 BB/9 he posted while starting in 2002. Unfortunately we simply don't know if Affeldt will need weeks or months to recover right now, so while you likely won't find a better time to deal for him in the next few seasons, only actively attempt to acquire him if you can hold his rights past this year.

Minnesota: Brad Radke, RH Starter
1-2 on a 12:8 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 4 GS
with 29 H, 6 HR, and a 25-29 G-F; 7.84 ERA.

With a 4012 PQA log thus far, Radke's 2003 debut ranks with the more disappointing early performances of the year. Minnesota's offense may be struggling but the Twins own the majors' best defense, so Radke must bear significant responsibility for his 12.6 H/9. The combination of a .86 G-F with an elevated hit rate naturally leads to a 2.6 HR/9, yet both a 5.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 suggest Radke still owns some skill. I don't expect much qualitative support from him this season, however the Twins will play a markedly easier schedule in the coming weeks, making now a great time to acquire Radke, particularly if you need wins.

New York Yankees: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer
0-1 and 3 Saves on a 7:1 K:BB in 8 IP over 9 G
with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 10-9 G-F; 5.63 ERA.

Acevedo's unfairly elevated ERA obscures his excellent skills. Only a slightly high hit rate has left him with questionable qualitative marks, however any reliever with a 7.9 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 merits attention in any fantasy league, especially one who'll close for Yankees until their future Hall of Famer returns. While Rivera may return within a week, Acevedo's established himself as a vital component of New York's pen who's quite capable of closing whenever needed. I wouldn't advise dumping him except even after Rivera's return except in the shallowest of leagues, and I'd even look to acquire him if a worried owner will give you a nice discount due to his ERA, currently low save total, and impending move back to set-up work.

Oakland: Mike Neu, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G
with 2 H, 0 HR, and an 8-0 G-F; 2.25 ERA.

No healthy reliever only should have four appearances as April draws to a close, and Ken Macha's refusal to use Neu baffles me. Neu's 2002 MLE skill ratios included a 9.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and .5 HR/9, so he looks prepared to succeed for any team in the majors; he could dominate given the advantages of pitching in Oakland's pen. I wish I could recommend you add Neu to your roster, however he'll only have value in extremely deep leagues unless an injury thrusts him into a more significant role. You should probably wait for some roster development on the A's before taking any action, and consider releasing him in favor of someone who'll pitch more than once a week if already own him.

Seattle: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter
1-3 on a 16:15 K:BB in 29.1 IP over 5 GS
with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 46-35 G-F; 4.30 ERA.

Neither Garcia's skills nor performance match expectations thus far, and his single win especially troubles me given the Mariners' impressive early record. One of the AL's premiere starters isn't supposed to possess a 4.9 K/9 right now and Garcia's 4.6 BB/9 is equally unacceptable. Of course Garcia's qualitative contribution seems to vary in direct correlation to his G-F, and his current 1.31 mark is much closer to the 1.45 G-F he managed in his good years rather than the 1.14 he averaged in 2000 and 2002. He should improve as soon as next week once the Mariners face an opponent outside the AL West, so see if you can acquire Garcia now before his price starts rising with his improving value.

Tampa Bay: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever
0-1 on a 7:7 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 8 G
with 17 H, 4 HR, and a 12-28 G-F; 6.40 ERA.

The first Tampa regular season victim of Mt. Piniella, Sweet Lou bumped Colome from anointed closer to middle relief after only two games, neither of which even presented Colome with a save opportunity. Now Colome, after compiling a 9:3 K:BB in IP during Spring Training, has regressed to a skill level markedly worse than his 2002 performance. Not only won't he figure in Tampa's saves' picture any time soon, but he'll be lucky to retain his roster spot into May. We're quite disappointed in his struggles this year, and unfortunately we see no choice but to recommend you deal or cut Colome given this obvious downside and limited current potential.

Texas: Chan Ho Park, RH Starter
1-3 on a 13:16 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 5 GS
with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 28-31 G-F; 6.47 ERA.

Prior to the disruption of his normal spring workout in 2002 by Oscar Acosta, to be played by R. Lee Ermey in The Chan Ho Park Story, Park hadn't pitched less than 192 innings in any season since turning 24 back in 1997. Now Park can't seem to stay healthy, so even while his 00442 PQA log this year suggests he still possesses intriguing upside, he likely will struggle to reach 150 innings. Perhaps the only good news here is that he's increased his innings in every successive start, from 2.2 to 3, 5, 6, and then 7 IP against Boston yesterday. I certainly wouldn't risk likely qualitative damage by deploying Park right now, but if you can stash him on reserve indefinitely, look to acquire Park since we can't imagine his value falling much lower.

Toronto: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer
0-1 and 2 Saves on an 8:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 7 G
with 13 H, 1 HR, and a 10-4 G-F; 15.00 ERA.

Toronto, thanks to perhaps the toughest schedule in baseball, only has given Escobar two save opportunities over the first three weeks of the season, and the need to give Escobar regular work has left him with abhorrent qualitative stats. Escobar simply seems to lack focus when not used in a traditional closer role, and since Toronto's schedule doesn't substantially easy until the middle of June, Escobar will be lucky not to lose his closer's job. Feel free to move him for a replacement closer, however you likely need to wait and suffer through a poor month or two since he's not worth moving unless you can exchange him for someone with 30-save upside.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While pitchers with shaky skills still eventually will struggle irrespective of early success, a combination of positive April skills and effectiveness can carry a player for an entire season. Derek Lowe and Tom Glavine in particular posting solid numbers in 2002 because they opened with fantastic April performances.