Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: Junior Spivey, 2B
9/51 for .176/.276/.235 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:14 BB:K.

Spivey's slump is a primary reason for Arizona's offensive collapse. A jump in his contact rate to .81 fueld his 2002 success, but now he's struggling as his contact rate is back down to .73 and his G-F ratio has slipped to a career-worst 1.62. At least his .12 walk rate allows him to maintain slight fantasy value, however he won't hold much value for most owners if he's only managing a .633 OPS against lefties, forget about his normal problems with right-handers. Yet his value can't fall much lower, so since he's shown signs of offensive life in the past week, now might be your last chance to acquire Spivey at a nice discount this season.

Atlanta: Chipper Jones, OF
16/63 for .254/.319/.413 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:15 BB:K.

No one expected Chipper to approach April with the worst OPS of any Braves' starting position player, and yet thanks to a sore left thumb, sprained groin, and a sprained left shoulder suffered on Sunday, he hasn't played at full effectiveness since February. We expected him to contend for the MVP if he could maintain his second-half performance from 2002, but instead a career-best 3.93 #P/PA suggests he's exercising excruciating patience at the plate before failing to drive the baseball. His .10 walk rate is well off his .16 career average, and a .76 contact rate, also far removed from his .84 career norm, indicates an abundance of strikeouts is limiting his performance. Unfortunately I'm not convinced Chipper will rebound until he reaches full health, and since his thumb has bothered him for two months and his groin for a couple weeks, there's little evidence of him progressing towards complete recovery. I'm particularly concerned that his old problems with right-handed pitchers have returned since his .865 OPS against lefties is far more acceptable than his .405 OPS in 18 at-bats versus right-handers. Explore the possibility of moving Jones if you can receive a package commensurate with his value when healthy, however you hopefully just need to wait for a few weeks for him to begin producing better numbers.

Chicago Cubs: Tom Goodwin, OF
1/11 for .091/.091/.091 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 0:2 BB:K.

Goodwin hasn't stolen less than 16 bases in a year since establishing himself with Kansas City in 1995. While Corey Patterson is somewhat unique among Goodwin's playing time opponents in that Patterson if young, speedy, provides good defense, and can play every day, Dusty Baker historically has demonstrated that he will involve his entire bench in games. We really like Goodwin's chances at stealing a dozen or more bases this year, and that level of production from a fifth outfielder or utility player can push many teams higher in the money. He's seemingly available even in many relatively deep leagues, so if you possess an open or underused roster spot and need a SB boost, look to acquire Goodwin for a minimal fee since his playing time should increase in coming weeks.

Cincinnati: Felipe Lopez, SS/3B
11/54 for .204/.283/.315 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:13 BB:K.

Injuries have left the Reds' with significant offensive holes, however several players simply aren't making enough contact to take advantage of new hitters' paradise GAB. Somehow Lopez is mostly struggling despite posting a promising .11 walk rate and his .76 contact rate is nearly back to his 2001 mark rather than remaining at his worrisome 2002 level of .68. A 3.95 #P/PA and 1.31 G-F demonstrates his evolving patience and power potential, and now that Lopez will start full time for Cincinnati indefinitely, we should see a BA heading over .250 along with continued quantitative development. Look to acquire Lopez if you need any middle infield help.

Colorado: Charles Johnson, C
8/45 for .178/.269/.356 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:12 BB:K.

The 1.059 OPS of Bobby Estalella could contribute to more lost playing time for Johnson, however I see no reason to expect less than 400 at-bats from Johnson. He is not a remotely similar player to Kirt Manwaring, making Johnson extremely likely both to see a rapidly rising BA and increased power output. The general lack of catching talent on fantasy rosters makes Johnson a valuable commodity, so while you should feel free to explore any chance to acquire him, you also shouldn't expect a performance much superior to his 2001 line of .259/18/75.

Florida: Todd Hollandsworth, OF
14/57 for .246/.328/.316 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 7:17 BB:K.

Jeff Torborg's steal-happy crew has produced some of the best 2003 roto values, yet Florida's new starting left fielder appears completely removed from the offensive attack. At least Hollandsworth is holding a career-best 4.09 #P/PA and a 1.25 G-F, superior to any other mark in his career since his debut. He's finally managing a walk rate above .10 while displaying 20 SB potential, but unfortunately a .70 contact rate will severely limit his upside. As Hollandsworth also remains one of the primary injury concerns in fantasy baseball, I don't see sufficient justification for seeking him in trade, although I'd certainly wait for more production before taking any action if I already owned him.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: One of my oldest friends had the opportunity to add Jeff Weaver off waivers last week in an ESPN mixed league, a somewhat shocking event given the solid odds Weaver will finish among the dozen most valuable 5x5 starters. While someone dropping Weaver right now primarily is indicative of a weak league, we also repeatedly see comparable moves every April, particularly in shallow leagues. Owners in deeper leagues similarly should take advantage of any obviously favorable trade offers, yet also remember you should neither release nor trade players like Junior Spivey who possess an incredible likelihood of posting improved stats within the near future.