Today's Fantasy Rx

Last year I began the in-season LPR articles by discussing starters with at least two starts with a PQA of 5. The more stringent requirements implemented this year allowed only three NL starters to meet that requirement, so I'll examine the other seven NL starters who've dominated in two starts while managing at least one 5 and not posting a PQA score below 3.

Four NL relievers also have dominated in at least seven appearances without any disastrous outings, and I'll review them following the starting pitchers.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

455
Mark Prior: 2-1 on a 25:4 K:BB in 21 IP with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 31-14 G-F; 1.71 ERA. He already looks like the best pitcher in baseball as comparisons to Tom Seaver just continue to grow. Calfzilla possesses the lower body strength necessary to develop as a power pitcher while likely avoiding serious injury, and I simply can't see a downside to owning this kid. He's maturing into an ace a year earlier than we expected, however he's capable of holding a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP for the next two decades. You must own him in any national contest like CDM, and if you need starting pitching, there probably isn't a better target in the majors.

545
Byung-Hyun Kim: 0-0 on a 14:5 K:BB in 17 IP with 15 H, 3 HR, and a 28-9 G-F; 3.71 ERA. Kim's nicely following Derek Lowe's transition from power closer to dominant starter. Unfortunately Arizona's offense finally has fallen to the weak output level many expected for the last couple years, leaving Kim a shocking 0-3 despite some of the best pitching in all of baseball. I don't expect an exceptional WHIP here, but I doubt you'll find many better starting pitching bargains if Kim's owner is down on his early performance. Particularly if their teams need qualitative help, most NL-only owners should inquire as to Kim's availability in trade and see if they can add a potential $20 pitcher at a nice bargain.

5215
Horacio Ramirez: 2-2 on a 13:5 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 4 HR, and a 36-28 G-F; 5.04 ERA. Ramirez only has faced Montreal and Florida, and both his dominant starts occurred against the Expos while he performed poorly against the Marlins. I simply haven't seen sufficient potential in his skills to recommend him right now, however his fantastic control through four starts gives me hope he'll improve. Consider rostering him if you can leave him reserved, however Ramirez's qualitative downside makes him a questionable choice to deploy at this time.

454
Jeff Suppan: 3-0 on a 12:5 K:BB in 19.1 IP with 14 H, 1 HR, and a 38-17 G-F; 1.40 ERA. Only three NL pitchers have started at least three games without posting a PQA under 4 thus far, and Suppan's inclusion with Prior and Kim certainly ranks as one of the major surprises of the season. Of course Suppan was a promising prospect only five years ago and he just turned 28 in January, so this performance isn't a complete shock since he also moved from the best AL hitters' park to only the fifth best NL hitters' park while joining a team with superior defense. His success should continue as long as he maintains decent command while holding a 2.00+ G-F, particularly since his current 2.24 mark is over 40% better than his previous career high. However feel free to move him if you can obtain a pitcher with better recent stats and a superior chance at reaching double-digit value.

3454
Adam Eaton: 0-1 on a 17:9 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 39-22 G-F; 3.16 ERA. Eaton faces the same problem as all Padres' starters in that the team lacks the offense necessary to allow any starter to finish with more than about 10 wins. His most impressive skill at the moment is a career-best 1.77 G-F, and his value will grow gradually as long as he doesn't revert to his former excessive homer rate. He should help any team qualitatively and looks particularly strong in sim leagues, but don't acquire him with the expectation of a notable number of wins.

4345
Curt Schilling: 1-2 on a 32:9 K:BB in 27.1 IP with 19 H, 3 HR, and a 38-21 G-F; 4.28 ERA. His 3 start occurred in Colorado, and his skills look fairly excellent aside from a mildly elevated walk rate. Try to take advantage of his artificially inflated ERA and low win total to grab him cheaply from an irked owner, as while Arizona's poor offense might leave him around 15 wins, his qualitative contribution again will rank with the best pitchers in baseball.

5433
Kevin Brown: 1-1 on a 15:9 K:BB in 22.1 IP with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 42-22 G-F; 4.03 ERA. Brown dominated Arizona twice before slumping slightly in two starts against the Giants. Unfortunately Brown doesn't quite appear back to his pre-injury form of 2000, and the Dodgers' inconsistent offense won't give an abundance of opportunities for wins under the best circumstances. I'd certainly keep Brown if I drafted or previously acquired him, but nothing here gives me much reason to designate him a good trade target.

435
Darren Dreifort: 1-1 on a 16:9 K:BB in 19 IP with 15 H, 3 HR, and a 34-14 G-F; 3.79 ERA. I'm impressed by his relatively quick return from surgery, particularly since we expected him to spend much of this year in the bullpen. His dominance in particular is reassuring, and yet his command problems continue to obstruct him from emerging as a consistent contributor. Like Kevin Brown, hold him right now if you own him, but don't seek to acquire him if he's not already on your roster.

534
Odalis Perez: 0-1 on a 14:6 K:BB in 19.1 IP with 21 H, 1 HR, and a 37-16 G-F; 4.19 ERA. Perez is a superb choice to acquire if you need a starter. With his unimpressive current stats, a bum ankle that caused him to miss a start but will be fine within days, and the fact he started all three games on the road, I see no logical reason why he won't again emerge as one of the majors' top starters. Consider an attempt to acquire him regardless of your league format.

3353
Randy Wolf: 2-1 on an 18:10 K:BB in 23 IP with 17 H, 0 HR, and a 30-26 G-F; 3.52 ERA. The best news here is that he's finally holding a ground-fly ratio above 1.00, although his ERA might not fall from this level in the near future as a likely rising homer rate should negate any improvement in his control. Wolf's a good pitcher to own, however I believe he lacks the current immediate upside of most of the aforementioned starters today.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

We've included the five most recent PQA scores for each reliever.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Joe Borowski(45553): 0-0 and 3 Saves on a 12:0 K:BB in 9.2 IP with 3 H, 1 HR, and a 10-9 G-F; 0.93 ERA. If by some miracle he's available in your league, run to add him to your team. My only concern regarding Borowski is overwork as he's appeared in about two-thirds of the Cubs' games. His skills have remained excellent since the beginning of 2002, and he might not even lose the closer's job to Alfonseca when Pulpo returns from the DL. While he isn't yet a good play in challenge games, he's worth acquiring in nearly any standard league.

8 DOM, 0 DUL/DIS
John Smoltz(55444): 0-0 and 6 Saves on a 12:0 K:BB in 9.1 IP with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 9-10 G-F; 0.00 ERA. Essentially no difference exists between Smoltz's current skills and those of Joe Borowski, however ignoring his one terrible outing last April, Smoltz has dominated near this level since moving to the bullpen. I see every possibility for him at least to match last year's fantasy production, and given the current composition of the Braves, he should see a similar number of save opportunities since I don't envision the Braves beating many teams by more than three runs. Of course he'll cost a ton in trade, so don't seek to add him unless you can afford the going rate for one of the few healthy elite closers.

7 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Paul Quantrill(35355): 0-0 on a 9:1 K:BB in 7 IP with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 6-5 G-F; 2.57 ERA. Quantrill looked like one of the best middle relievers to own in the game prior to the season, and his early dominance only reinforces my existing confidence in his skills. If you want to add a low-risk, non-closing relievers in the NL, I can't think of a better pitcher to target.

7 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Eric Gagne(54345): 0-0 and 4 Saves on a 14:2 K:BB in 10 IP with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 9-5 G-F; 0.00 ERA. While the pending rise in Gagne's hit rate means he won't maintain his current qualitative excellence, nearly all his skills seem exactly comparable to last year's marks. The one difference is that expecting much more than 40 saves seems quite unrealistic, however his other statistical contributions will allow Gagne to continue challenging Smoltz for the title of best closer in the game.

Tomorrow, like every Sunday, we'll post our Week 4 preview and CDM challenge rosters for the week.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Over the last couple seasons we've observed early-season trends continuing for most of the year far more than in '90's. Keep a wary eye on most stats as the season is only a tenth over, however recognize that early-season games will cause dramatic shifts in players' qualitative values far more than contests at the end of summer.