Today's Fantasy Rx

Last year I began the in-season LPR articles by discussing starters with at least two starts with a PQA of 5. The more stringent requirements implemented this year allowed only two AL starters to meet that requirement, so I'll examine the other five AL starters who've dominated in two starts while managing at least one 5 and not posting a PQA score below 3.

Six AL relievers also have dominated in at least four appearances without any disastrous outings, and I'll review them following the starting pitchers.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

355
Mike Mussina: 3-0 on a 25:4 K:BB in 22 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 19-19 G-F; 1.64 ERA. Mussina's faced two fairly competent offenses in Toronto and Minnesota and neither team could muster much of an attack. Hopefully his great start will insure he finally breaks that elusive 20 win barrier, however he'll remain a vital component of any fantasy team even if the Yankees' prolific run-scoring decreases. Of course, as his qualitative numbers will increase in upcoming weeks, I don't believe Mussina is someone to specifically target at this time.

3505
Ismael Valdes: 2-1 on an 18:5 K:BB in 23 IP with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 30-22 G-F; 5.09 ERA. Valdes normally pitches best in April and July, however his early-season performance this year merits attention because he's faced impressive opposition in Seattle, Oakland, and Anaheim twice. Only Oakland consistently produced flyballs against him, and unsurprisingly that was the one outing in which he struggled. Valdes will succeed as long as he maintains a respectable ground-fly ratio and good command, so if you're looking for a starting pitcher, try to snag Valdes from his current owner on the basis of his poor ERA.

444
Roger Clemens: 2-0 on a 17:7 K:BB in 20 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 26-16 G-F; 2.25 ERA. The Future Hall of Famer will cruise past 300 wins and might even reach 315 wins, moving past Gaylord Perry with the 15th most career wins. He remains especially valuable in 5x5 leagues thanks to his continually excellent strikeout rate, and while I'm mildly concerned that he's only holding a 2.4 K:BB, I see no reason Clemens won't remain an important fantasy contributor. However, like Mussina, his qualitative numbers seem too good for his skills, so he's a poor target as he'll likely struggle at times in the coming weeks.

5433
Runelvys Hernandez: 3-0 on a 14:9 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 G with 14 H, 0 HR, and a 37-26 G-F; 1.04 ERA. Hernandez's hit rate will rise quickly once the weather heats up, and his poor strikeout rate limits his upside, especially given Kansas City's questionable defense. The only downside of dealing Hernandez now is that nearly every owner likely realizes his value is cresting. Of course I also see nothing here that suggests Hernandez won't slip close to the 4.55 ERA and 1.43 we expect to see by the end of the season. Don't sell him too short, but there's also little reason to keep him if you can find a trade partner.

345
Kyle Lohse: 2-1 on an 18:3 K:BB in 21.1 IP with 8 H, 3 HR, and a 21-28 G-F; 1.69 ERA. His current success is a logical step from his second half in 2002 when he posted a 6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Unfortunately he's faced the Tigers twice so far, and his 3.4 hit rate will more than double in the very near future. Yet while Lohse may struggle while facing Seattle next week, Detroit also begins two weeks again Baltimore on Tampa Bay at the end of April. While his qualitative marks will increase, I'd only trade Lohse right now if you're offered at least an established player worth no less than $15-20 in return.

435
Esteban Loaiza: 3-0 on a 19:5 K:BB in 20.2 IP with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 23-20 G-F; 1.31 ERA. Like Kyle Lohse, Loaiza's posted great numbers by demolishing Detroit twice, and an impressive performance against Kansas City last night also does little to convince me he'll break double-digit value this year. The problem here is that the only weak team the Sox face in the next month is Baltimore, and their next extended stretch against weaker teams doesn't begin until July. His 3.9 hit rate should triple within the next couple weeks, so deal Loaiza now for the first respected package offered.

453
Ricardo Rodriguez: 2-0 on an 11:4 K:BB in 20 IP with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 32-16 G-F; 1.35 ERA. Rodriguez is posting the weak strikeout rate we expected to see, however most of his other skills appear fairly solid. A solid ground-fly ratio at least will limit his downside to some extent, but we'd still be shocked by anything better than a 5.00 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP by the end of the year. He appears quite overhyped to me, and unless you already expect to rebuild this year due to injury troubles, you should actively seek to move Rodriguez before his fifth start as Cleveland won't face any teams outside of the AL West from next Tuesday through May 18th.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

We've included the five most recent PQA scores for each pitcher.

9 DOM, 0 DUL/DIS
B.J. Ryan(54444): 2-0 on a 9:1 K:BB in 7 IP with 5 H, 0 HR, and an 11-3 G-F; 0.00 ERA. He's the only AL pitcher with more than three appearances who hasn't posted anything below a 4 PQA and somehow he's reached 9 appearances while continuing to display incredible skills. Although Ryan demonstrated excellent dominance in recent seasons, he's never combined his impressive strikeout rates with good command for an entire season. Ryan generally struggles badly in the first half before displaying skills similar to his current stats after the break; he'll easily earn several dollars if he maintains these skills over most of the season. Of course he also won't pitch enough to hurt you even if he struggles, so I can't imagine many safer middle relief pick-ups. Anyone in an AL-only league of any depth should target Ryan if seeking a low-risk pitcher.

6 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Danys Baez(43355): 0-1 and 3 Saves on a 7:3 K:BB in 10.1 IP with 3 H, 1 HR, and a 12-12 G-F; 0.87 ERA. Baez is in position to save a few dozen games thanks to Cleveland's developing starting pitching, however he's not dominating right now to the extent we expected. While he's displaying consistent effectiveness, I don't view him as a great trade target since his qualitative marks even are slightly below expectations given his current skills.

5 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Mike MacDougal(54334): 0-0 and 7 Saves on a 7:6 K:BB in 7 IP with 2 H, 0 HR, and an 8-3 G-F; 0.00 ERA. We've seen advice in several places to sell MacDougal high, and while his value may not return to this level until late in 2004, I see no reason to move him if you need saves. The only problem in his skills is his poor command, but if he's not going to allow many hits, he won't hurt you WHIP like so many other questionable closers. MacDougal should rack 30-40 saves for the Royals at least for the next four seasons, and while he won't remain on his current pace, feel free to treat him like any other closer. Given the injury problems and ineffectiveness plaguing about a dozen established closers, MacDougal even ranks among the top few most desirable save options to own. While we were guilty of this mistake as recently as last winter, don't let a lone skill deficiency sour your opinion of MacDougal.

4 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Johan Santana(43544): 0-0 on a 16:3 K:BB in 12.1 IP with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 10-14 G-F; 0.00 ERA. Santana always will need to be wary of allowing an abundance of homers, but he's currently qualified for any role on a major league pitching staff. When Minnesota needs a spot starter, Santana will dominate most opponents, and if they decide to leave him in the bullpen indefinitely, he'll beat out J.C. Romero for the closing job in 2004 after Guardado and Hawkins likely depart. His current skills suggest he's even worth owning in shallow mixed leagues unless you already own a half-dozen closers and set-up men.

Keith Foulke(43444): 0-0 and 4 Saves on an 8:1 K:BB in 7.1 IP with 5 H, 1 HR, and a 7-9 G-F; 2.46 ERA. Nothing about this stat line or his performance in general even mildly surprises us. Remember that Foulke won't face any team aside from Anaheim, Seattle, and Texas until next week, so you even can expect his qualitative marks to improve as Oakland faces the weaker offenses in the league. Don't overpay to acquire him as the likely number of Oakland blowouts will limit his saves to a little over 40, but Foulke otherwise should remain the most desired closer to own in fantasy baseball.

Mike Venafro(54334): 0-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 12-2 G-F; 5.79 ERA. Venafro's placement on this less appears entirely due to his outstanding groundball rate. However his only significant skill problem seems to be a high number of hits, suggesting a correlation with the lack of cohesion of Tampa's infield defense. Despite the possibility Venafro's qualitative marks should improve, I don't believe he merits attention in any but the very deepest of AL-only leagues.

We'll continue tomorrow with the first in-season NL LPR article of the year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The starts of Kansas City, San Francisco, and Detroit have obscured the Yankees' historically impressive opening to some extent. Not only have the Yankees posted their best-ever early season record, but Mussina and Clemens rank among the best AL pitchers through three starts, Jeff Weaver and David Wells are only one tier below their teammates, and even Andy Pettitte's 530 PQA line isn't too troubling. If you expect to be short of wins in AL-only or mixed leagues, I can't think of many better general targets than any member of the New York rotation.