Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the Tout Wars National League rosters here.

Owner: Ron Shandler
Site: Baseball HQ
$ Left: $4.
Split: $216H/$40P = 84/.16
Reserve roster: Curt Leskanic, Todd Jones, Ruben Quevedo, Ray King, Dennis Tankersley, and Francis Beltran.

Nice pick: Jeff Kent, $33; moving from the Giants to the Astros easily could result in another MVP campaign for Kent.
Top sleeper: Dennis Tankersley, R; with relatively little left to prove in the minors, Tankersley at least could provide a welcome second-half boost.
Potential bust: Tino Martinez, $16; any further BA degradation will push Martinez into single-digit value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Francis Beltran.
Early bad luck: At least Chris Richard($5) broke camp in the majors, but Colorado appears more likely to promote youngsters to fill any starting jobs that open.
Category to trade: Offense.

Spending $216 on hitting here unsurprisingly produced a deep, balanced offense capable of running the table in the hitting categories. Aside from a couple of mild injury risks, a combination of stadium-related upside and established production provides a superb foundation here. The bigger problem is that the pitching staff has a few holes, but I at least see a half-dozen solid options here, each possessing double-digit upside. Expending few dollars on any of these guys also means Shandler can FAAB at his leisure whenever he sees an interesting pitching sleeper.

Summary: An almost complete lack of relievers and questionable pitching quality may keep him out of first, but Shandler's offense appears headed for an in-the-money finish.

Owner: Rob Liebowitz
Site: Masters of Fantasy Baseball
$ Left: $0.
Split: $200H/$260P = 77/23.
Reserve roster: Jeriome Robertson, Brian Moehler, Mike Bynum, Mike Bacsik, Trey Hodges, and Andres Galarraga.

Nice pick: Eric Gagne, $25; I see no logical reason he can't produce another $40 season.
Top sleeper: Carl Pavano, $1; place respectable skills in a great pitchers' park, supported by a strong defense, and Pavano only needs to stay healthy to earn significant profit.
Potential bust: Cliff Floyd, $25; a history of injury problems makes anything more than a value in the teens seem unlikely.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early bad luck: The Mets already demoted Bacsik, severely curtailing his likely upside.
Category to trade: Good starts by Pokey Reese($10) and Kenny Lofton($13) should allow Liebowitz to move a speedster early in the year.

Acquiring at a least a platoon starter at every position will result in a strong quantitative finishes on offense, and unlike some other owners that spent $200+ on hitting, Liebowitz managed to purchase one of baseball's best closers. Nabbing obvious sleepers like Pavano and a $1 Jeff Suppan similarly could provide a lot of decent innings, increasing the quantitative upside on the pitching side, too.

Summary: Only a spate of injuries to a largely veteran team should keep Liebowitz from contending all year.

Owner: Mark Haverty
Site: Patton & Co.
$ Left: $0.
Split: $488H/$72P = 72/28.
Reserve roster: Joe Roa, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Dustin Hermanson, and Al Levine.

Nice pick: Vladimir Guerrero, $53; we'd have exceeded this price for a probable $60 player, and while this obviously ranks as a significant investment, I can't think of a better player on which to spend $50+.
Top sleeper: Dustin Hermanson, R; he looks like the best long-term saves' candidate among St. Louis middle relievers assuming Izzy doesn't return at full strength.
Potential bust: Shawn Green, $31; most of his skill trends look fairly poor, making Green more likely to fall short of $20 than exceed $30.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None, although we don't expect Johnny Estrada, $1, to see much playing time.
Early bad luck: Geoff Jenkins, $14, still can't stay healthy, Kirk Saarloos, $1, headed back to New Orleans, and Shane Reynolds lost his job completely before finding himself in an intriguing situation in Atlanta .
Category to trade: Saves, thank to rostering a $17 Jose Mesa, $16 Jose Jimenez, and $15 Matt Mantei.

Haverty grabbed three closers for an average of $16, giving him excellent trade bait of a valuable commodity. Unfortunately a starting staff of a $10 Ben Sheets, $9 Danny Graves, $2 Zach Day, $1 Shane Reynolds, and $1 Joe Roa will give him significant WHIP problems, so I don't envision Haverty finishing highly in any pitching category but saves.

A stars-and-scrubs offensive strategy might have nicely complemented his pitching strategy, but instead of augmenting Vlad with solid three-to-five category players, he split $55 between Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, cornering steals but leaving him woefully short of power. Aside from Vlad, Green and Jenkins, only a $14 Junior Spivey, $6 Ty Wigginton, and a $4 Russ Branyan look capable of reaching double-digit homers. He obviously looks okay in steals, and likely BA and runs, however I see a definite power deficit.

Summary: Haverty's trading skills will determine how he finishes the season since I can envision him finishing anywhere from 3rd to 10th depending on how much talent he can receive in return for his closers. A I don't believe most Tout owners will offer more than a marginal $20 position player for any of his second-tier closers, he'll need significant luck to break into the first division.

Owner: Jonah Keri
Site: Baseball Prospectus
$ Left: $0.
Split: $151H/$109P = 58/42.
Reserve roster: Blaine Neal, Damon Minor, Joey Eischen, Todd Linden, Ramon E. Martinez, and Corky Miller.

Nice pick: Barry Bonds, $38; nabbing him for less than $40 looks like a nice bargain.
Top sleeper: Ramon E. Martinez, R; any extended slump or injury by a starting Cubs' infielder will allow Martinez to push double-digit value.
Potential bust: Ryan Dempster, $4; I doubt he'll stay on this roster for long, however we expect him to rank with the worst fantasy pitchers thanks to the GAB.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Todd Linden and likely Corky Miller.
Early bad luck: None of their 9 back-up position players, including Martinez, a $6 Felipe Lopez, $3 Tyler Houston, $2 Kerry Robinson, Dollar Days picks Bobby Estalella, Yorvit Torrealba, Keith Ginter, Ricky Ledee, and David Delucci, has managed any consistent playing time.
Category to trade: Batting average and possibly saves.

Assuming they sub Blaine Neal or Joey Eischen for Dempster, a staff with a $22 Wood, $14 Byung-Hyun Kim, $13 Lawrence, $2 Jason Marquis, $25 Wagner, $19 Williamson, $9 Stewart, and $1 Shuey should enable them to amass significant pitching points. Unfortunately none of these players look like a bargain, and they lack the starting depth to post impressive marks in wins or strikeouts.

Any team with Bonds, a $33 Todd Helton, and a $23 Jose Vidro should leave the auction with a BA title secured, however they'll need several lucky playing time breaks to gain enough at-bats for more than a half-dozen points in any quantitative category. Nearly every bench player possesses interesting upside, however the entire profit potential of this team rests in that bench, a risky proposition under any circumstances.

Summary: As I believe in agree with many aspects of the Prospectus projection methodology and like the skill depth rostered on this team, I believe they have a decent shot at sneaking into the first division.

I'll continue tomorrow with the remaining four teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Within the next week, the value of Tigers' hitters will start rising and the value of Royals' starting pitching should fall. While I'm still 10 days away from looking at underachievers, a couple of names merit your attention. I don't expect rapid rebounds from Dmitri Young or Carlos Pena given their respective 0:9 BB:K and 2:8 BB:K ratios, however the values of Bobby Higginson, Gene Kingsale, and Eric Munson each likely have reached the lowest point to which they'll fall this year. An early .385 OBP for Kingale in particular could open up significant SB opportunities.

Among KC pitchers, Miguel Asencio is an automatic "dump now" thanks to his 3:6 K:BB in 10 IP. Jeremy Affeldt's 10:5 K:BB in 10 IP also doesn't convince me he's ready to contribute to most fantasy teams. Only Runelvys Hernandez and his 10:2 K:BB in 13 IP looks likely to sustain a modicum of his current success. The major pending problem here is that Kauffman Stadium remains a great hitters' park, so the Royals will not maintain their current .25 homer rate all season. Look to deal KC starters now before your qualitative numbers implode as if you owned the entire Tigers' starting rotation.