Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the Tout Wars American League rosters here.

Owner: Rick Fogel
Site: USA Stats
$ Left: $0.
Split: $167H/$93P = 64/36.
Reserve roster: Scott Schoeneweis, John Mabry, Bobby Howry, Mike Lamb, Sterling Hitchcock, and Chris George.

Nice pick: Ichiro Suzuki, $33; this is a great price for the best AL position player.
Top sleeper: Mike MacDougal, $5; while he's not really a sleeper given Kansas City barely considered anyone else to close, but these owners wouldn't have let him go for $5 if they concurred with us that he'd approach 30 saves.
Potential bust: Sandy Alomar, Jr., $7; he still owns decent skills for a catcher, although he won't see enough playing time even if healthy to manage half this value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early bad luck: Brent Abernathy, $4, not only lost his starting job but wound up with Kansas City off waivers; C.C. Sabathia, $10, already looks set to miss considerable time due to injury.
Category to trade: Strikeouts and probably starting pitching in general.

While Fogel assembled a great pen under $10 with MacDougal, a $2 Brendan Donnelly, and a $2 Francisco Cordero, however he also spent over $80 on a selection of very questionable starting pitchers. Of his five double-digit starters, only his $15 Freddy Garcia should see a good chance of earning his salary. We certainly don't trust a $20 Bartolo Colon or a $10 C.C. Sabathia, and Boston's defensive changes make Derek Lowe a curious selection at $24. Spending 36% on pitching at least gives Fogel a good shot at significant pitching points, however one or two injuries here could leave him scrambling to fill expensive holes.

Offensively he concentrated nearly half of his money in buying outfielders Ichiro, Torii Hunter($28), and Randy Winn($21), leaving him with both a very weak infield and only $7 total for Dustan Mohr and Shane Spencer at the end of his outfield. Aside from Ichiro, the only likely bargains on offense here are an $8 Mike Young and perhaps a $17 Frank Thomas, leaving me to wonder if he'll finish decently anywhere but steals.

Summary: His nicely inexpensive pen gives Fogel a mild standings' cushion, however I don't see enough value here to warrant predicting him to finish in the first division.

Owner: Rick Wilton
Site: Sports Weekly Hot Sheet
$ Left: $0.
Split: $157H/$103P = 60/40.
Reserve roster: Scot Shields, Adrian Brown, Jody Gerut, Todd Van Poppel, Dave Berg, and Rey Ordonez.

Nice pick: Rondell White, $2; while $2 is only a couple bucks over our prediction, a nice lineup slot and fortunate good health could leave White pushing double digits.
Top sleeper: Joe Borchard, $6; this price looks reasonable based on a half-season of performance, but if Borchard grabs a Mayday call-up, he could double this price fairly easily.
Potential bust: Trot Nixon, $18; half the players here could quality for this category, although I'm particularly concerned about Nixon's playing time and doubt he could reach this value even if given 500 at-bats.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None, although Adrian Brown and Jody Gerut look much worse now than at the time of the draft.
Early bad luck: Borchard couldn't beat out Aaron Rowand for the center field job, Brown and Gerut failed to break camp as 4th outfielders, and Franklyn German, $8, doesn't look like he'll see many save opportunities within the next few months.
Category to trade: Middle relief studs, including German, a $7 KRod, $6 Ramiro Mendoza, and $1 Ricardo RIncon.

No owner even finished with $10 of Wilton's $103 pitching staff, and while he grabbed a promising collection of pitchers, this staff seems designed to focus on ERA and WHIP, with wins, strikeouts, and especially saves as secondary considerations. Few owners generally grab $22 bullpens without even a single co-closer, and while I see arguments for considering German a co-closer since he should replace the traded Anderson in the second half, I don't believe he's a great investment at the moment..

His expensive pitching staff logically leaves Wilton a little short on offense, but he didn't severely overpay for any position player aside from Nixon and a $4 Mike DeFelice. Of course only Adam Kennedy, $15, Omar Infante, $7, and Jerry Hairston, $17, should break double-digit steals, and limited playing time for guys like Borchard, a $6 Ruben Sierra, $4 Matt LeCory, and White should leave him short in most qualitative categories. Depending on Olerud, $19, Koskie, $18, Kennedy, and a $20 Raul Ibanez to anchor your BA also seems rather risky, especially when you're also employing guys like Infante and a $17 Tony Batista Summary: As I'm not convinced he'll finish in the top of the standings in any category aside from ERA and WHIP, Wilton will struggle to escape the second division.

Owner: Justin Gates
Site: Rotojunkie
$ Left: $0.
Split: $182H/$78P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Damian Rolls, Mark Hendrickson, Ben Weber, Aaron Miles, Seth McClung, and Rontrez Johnson.

Nice pick: Scott Spiezio, $14; he's an undervalued contributor who could approach $20 while qualifying at both first and third bases.
Top sleeper: Mark Hendrickson, R; he'll struggle against a tough slate of April opponents, but he should emerge as a solid #3 starter by September.
Potential bust: Jose Contreras, $13; neither a $20 Mike Cuddyer nor a $11 Bobby Kielty appear defensible, but Contreras could post some truly damaging numbers, and his non-existent track record necessitates a single-digit bid.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Aaron Miles.
Early bad luck: Marlon Anderson, $6, slipped from the starting right field job to a reserve after the acquisitions of Easley and Al Martin while Rolls experienced a similar fall. Rontrez Johnson also doesn't appear likely to see much playing time in Carlos Beltran's absence.
Category to trade: Wins, thanks to his $23 Hudson, $18 Washburn, $9 Appier, and $8 David Wells.

Gates assembled a strong pitching staff with four starters on likely 90+ win teams, along with an excellent $7 middle relief staff of Hasegawa, Groom, J.C. Romero, Marte, and Ben Weber. Unfortunately Contreras could significantly damage Gates' qualitative numbers, and he really should have spent that $13 on a closer. He'll still finish among the better teams in overall pitching, but this misallocation of funds will hurt him down the line.

Spending 70% of his budget on position players also somehow leaves him short in most offensive categories, particularly homers and steals. The only buys here we like beside Spiezio are a $14 Gary Matthews and a $4 Bill Mueller; even his $33 Jason Giambi and Bret Boone $20 look like cases of grabbing players at value. Overspending by $10 or more on his outfield also left him with limited funds for catching and shortstop, and we don't believe waiting for that $6 Deivi Cruz is a good idea in most leagues .

Summary: With Contreras hopefully benched in favor of Weber or Hendrickson, his pitching staff should enable him to challenge for an in-the-money finish, but he'll need offensive improvements to avoid any possibility of falling into the second division.

Owner: Kevin Goldstein
Site: The Prospect Report
$ Left: $0.
Split: $179H/$81P = 69/31.
Reserve roster: Kevin Cash, Justin Miller, Jason Bere, Chris Snelling, Delvin James, and Ken Cloude.

Nice pick: Manny Ramirez, $36; a potential .350/45/150 season at least merits a bid along these lines.
Top sleeper: Adam Piatt, $3; only Terrence Long stands between Piatt and the 20 HR-season that 500 at-bats should bring.
Potential bust: Tanyon Sturtze, $4; he could cause significant qualitative damage if left active for many more starts.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): We don't like the odds of Chris Snelling, Ken Cloude or Kevin Cash seeing much time above AAA in 2003.
Early bad luck: Jared Sandberg, $6, lost his roster spot completely even with the release of Greg Vaughn; Dan Wright, $6, opened the year on the DL; Dewon Brazelton, $3, headed back to the minors; and Jason Bere should miss the rest of this month.
Category to trade: Saves and possibly RBI.

Spending $41 on closers looks like overkill to me, especially when he grabbed ridiculously risky pitchers to fill most of his staff. Only a $15 Ramon Ortiz looks like a respectable pitching pick as even a $5 Runelvys Hernandez, $5 Ricardo Rodriguez, and $2 Rick Helling all appear overpriced.

Fortunately Goldstein at least picked up two quality offensive superstars by paying market prices for Manny and a $33 Nomar. We also like the gambles on a $16 Todd Walker, $13 Carl Everett, $11 Doug Mientkiewicz, and $11 Dmitri Young; even his $11 Rocco Baldelli seems reasonable based on his expected HR/SB contribution if given 500 at-bats. The problem here is that Baldelli, his $11 Michael Tucker, $7 Angel Berroa, and $5 Travis Lee could noticeably negate the great BA of Manny and Nomar, although I really like the majority of his offensive selections. Summary: Goldstein's offense should propel him to a first division finish, however a lack of depth thanks to poor reserve picks and a pitching staff unlikely to earn more than a few points anywhere but saves will leave him out of the money.

Owner: Jim Callis
Site: Baseball America
$ Left: $5.
Split: $163H/$92P = 64/36.
Reserve roster: Joaquin Benoit, Jon Rauch, Alex Escobar, Billy Traber, Kerry Ligtenberg, and Marshall McDougal.

Nice pick: Shannon Stewart, $22; even if Toronto continues to curtail his SB opportunities, Stewart remains one of the best five-tool selections in the game.
Top sleeper: Brian Roberts, $2; he's a potential 40 SB and $20 player if Baltimore ever lets him start at either middle infield position.
Potential bust: Victor Martinez, $9; I fail to understand the logic behind spending this much cash on someone destined for no less than a half-season in the minors.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Alex Escobar, Marshall McDougal, and probably John Stephens, $2, and Victor Martinez.
Early bad luck: Martinez, Roberts, Stephens, Benoit, Rauch, and Escobar all failed to break camp in the majors; Travis Harper, $3, doesn't look likely to see save opportunities any time soon.
Category to trade: Runs and likely steals.

I'm not convinced he'll finish strongly anywhere on pitching aside from wins after spending $75 on Koch, Clemens, Fossum, Radke, and Pettitte. Only Clemens and Fossum are notable strikeout pitchers and only Radke possesses likely strong ERA or WHIP marks, leaving this team questionable qualitatively if Ligtenberg or Traber spends much time subbing for the demoted Stephens.

Callis at least drafted a balanced offense, highlighted by $58 split between Stewart, Vernon Wells, and Raul Mondesi, a good price for the 4+ category upside of each player. Unfortunately most of the players on this team are only beginning their careers, so I don't see the profit potential in rostering a $18 Orlando Hudson, $11 Ken Harvey, or $7 Miguel Olivo. Even a $10 Hank Blalock is barely acceptable, and a single fantastic pick like a $4 David Ortiz doesn't compensate for a lack of upside anywhere but his expensive outfielders.

Summary: He'll need consistently good pitching performances and more playing time than we currently expect from half his position players to avoid slipping into the second division.

Owner: Dean Peterson
Site: STATS, Inc.
$ Left: $0.
Split: $199H/$61P = 77/23.
Reserve roster: Nate Cornejo, Jermaine Clark, Eric Bynes, Jamey Wright, Benji Gil, and Shawn Sedlacek.

Nice pick: LaTroy Hawkins, $1; his skills last year suggest he'll earn a 500%+ profit this year.
Top sleeper: Brian Daubach, $3; any injury to Frank Thomas or Paul Konerko will give Daubach enough at-bats to solidly exceed this price.
Potential bust: Troy Glaus, $28; he stands out as the worst of many questionable picks thanks to his persistent BA problems and early injury.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jamey Wright.
Early bad luck: Brandon Inge, $2, remained Detroit's starting catcher, and Ryan Bukvich, $1, didn't provide a notable challenge to MacDougal as closer.
Category to trade: Saves.

Rarely have I seen a drafted team that I so completely hate, but I neither see bargains nor potential among the players Peterson selected. Pending $27 on Mariano Rivera is rather ridiculous given his recent injury troubles, and he filled his pitching staff with $1 qualitative nightmares like Jason Davis and Miguel Asencio.

Peterson essentially left $30-40 on the table thanks to overpaying for everyone on offense that cost him more than $6. Alfonso Soriano at $4, Miguel Tejada at $31, Glaus at $28, Josh Phelps at $22, Carlos Pena at $18, and even a $22 Jacque Jones, $8 Ben Molina, and $8 Aaron Rowand each seem overpriced by no less than $5. Rostering someone like Brandon Inge will destroy many team's BA, and depending on extreme contact hitters to key your offense is a very risky strategy at best.

Summary: Given my comments above and the general composition of this team, any finish much above last place will be an accomplishment of in-season roster management.

These 12 teams currently appear rather stratified to me, with Jason Grey, Jeff Erickson, Mat Olkin, and Justin Gates looking like solid top 4 candidates and Trace Wood, Kevin Goldstein, Lawr Michaels, Jim Callis, and Rick Fogel as a competitive middle group. Matt Berry, Rick Wilton, and Dean Peterson all look like they'll need more luck than their fellow owners to finish high in the standings.

The most interesting development we're looking forward to observing is whether Erickson can use Grey's 2002 strategy to keep Grey from repeating, and I think he stands a reasonable chance of winning the leagaue if Jeter returns no later than mid-May. Of course I also don't see any clear-cut favorite, and any one of the five teams I envision finishing in the middle of the standings could leapfrog the four teams I expect to finish at the top of the standings. The teams of Michaels, Fogel, and Berry in particular could thrive with good roster management, however I'll be surprised if anyone but Grey, Erickson, or Olkin finishes first.

I'll continue tomorrow with a discussion of our Shadowdraft team.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I selected my shadowdraft team as the auction progressed, rostering players as they were nominated. Looking back on my team, I see some obvious bargains I missed, so I'm interested in your opinions of the probably bargains and busts in this league. If you have a few moments, please send me the players you would have been happy to draft off these rosters. at $1 more than their draft price