Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the Tout Wars American League rosters here.

Owner: Jason Grey
Site: Masters of Fantasy Baseball
$ Left: $0.
Split: $207H/$53P = 80/20.
Reserve roster: Cliff Lee, B.J. Surhoff, Gil Meche, Pat Hentgen, Darrell May, and Jason Arnold.

Nice pick: Johnny Damon, $30; he's the best speed guy in the league after Ichiro and easily should earn this price.
Top sleeper: Casey Blake, $1; he could reach double-digit value if Cleveland allows him to start for even half the year.
Potential bust: Alan Embree, $12; I just don't see him earning significant numbers of saves for Boston.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Esteban German, R.
Early bad luck: While Jack Cust, $1, lost out to Surhoff, at least Grey rostered B.J. in the reserve round. Pete Walker, $1, also failed to establish himself as the $5 starter.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

Grey tied Lawr Michaels' AL Tout record 87 points last year by focusing on his offense and the benefits of starting pitchers' wins and strikeouts while largely ignoring their qualitative contribution. Surprisingly he completely reversed his pitching plans this year, spending $34 on relievers Danys Baez, Alan Embree, and Arthur Rhodes before rostering a $13 Jamie Moyer. Then he spent a total of $6 and five reserve pick on Jeremy Affedlt, Nick Bierbrodt, Pete Walker, Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman, Cliff Lee, Gil Meche, Pat Hentgen, Darrell May, and Jason Arnold. Of this group of inexperienced pitchers, only Affeldt and Maroth seem even reasonable gambles to earn PDV this season, so while I generally approve of alternating starting pitchers to maximize match-ups and double starters in leagues with any reserve depth, I don't like most of his staff selections. I don't see him managing more than a half-dozen points in any hitting category.

He compounded his shift in pitching strategy by going for a straight stars-and-scrubs approach on offense. While this normally should work effectively in experts' leagues where elite players often are good values, neither his $40 ARod or a $39 Magglio Ordonez looks particularly inexpensive. I also like the SB depth he gained by rostering Damon, a $25 Mike Cameron, $16 Cristian Guzman, and a $5 Mark McLemore, however he looks weak in every other quantitative category. Solid performances by McLemore, Surhoff, Blake, a $3 Josh Bard, and a $2 Eric Munson should allow Grey to compile a good set of offensive numbers, but despite spending 80% of his budget on hitting I don't believe he secured anything near to a 60-point offense.

Summary: Grey's impressive offense should allow him to remain in the first division, but he'll need a few great trades and significant pitcher turnover to repeat as champion.

Owner: Lawr Michaels
Site: CREATiVESPORTS
$ Left: $0.
Split: $173H/$87P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Todd Sears, Greg Vaughn, James Baldwin, Terry Mulholland, Ryan Ludwick, and Gary Glover.

Nice pick: Keith Foulke, $28; while he cost more than any other closer, there isn't a better reliever investment in the game than Foulke under $30.
Top sleeper: Todd Sears, R; all he needs is a Mientkiewicz or LeCroy injury to reach double-digit value.
Potential bust: Barry Zito, $30; he cost more than any pitcher but Pedro, yet I don't expect him to finish even at $20, not to mention than $30.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): James Baldwin.
Early bad luck: Greg Vaughn failed to sign anywhere and Ryan Ludwick didn't mount a serious challenge for a Rangers' outfield spot.
Category to trade: Runs, given his plethora of hitters at the top of the order.

Michaels compiled an interesting team, filled with many players at value but lacking in notable bargains or players with much immediate upside. His offense would look much stronger if he'd plugged his $30 from Zito into hitting, and holes like a $5 Brent Mayne at catcher and a $1 Denny Hocking at MIF can look rather gaping, especially without much BA support outside of his $28 Bernie Williams. I'd be surprised if this team didn't post decent offensive numbers, but I don't see this offense anchoring a title run.

Fortunately his pitching could be quite good if everyone remains healthy, although he's unlikely to see any saves other than what Oakland provides. While a $10 John Lackey, $6 Jon Garland, and $6 Kyle Lohse provide some starting depth, none of these players provide a significant strikeout contribution. At best I envision Michaels finishing strongly in wins and not hurting terribly in any pitching category. Summary: Drafting a balanced foundation for a solid team gives Michaels more flexibility than many owners, but a lack of players with obvious potential should leave him out of the money.

Owner: Trace Wood
Site: The Long Gandhi
$ Left: $6.
Split: $180H/$74P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Jayson Werth, Greg Colbrunn, Aaron Sele, Jeremy Hill, Juan Acevedo, and Coco Crisp.

Nice pick: Doug Glanville, $6; one of the best bargains in the draft, Glanville could approach $20 since he's likely to lead off for Texas all year.
Top sleeper: Juan Acevedo, R; he should grab the majority of Yankee save opportunities whenever Rivera can't pitch.
Potential bust: Johan Santana, $16; only an injury to another Twins' starter in the very near future will allow Santana to approach this price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jayson Werth and Coco Crisp.
Early bad luck: Mark Teixeira, $14, is barely playing half the time; Carlos Febles, $9, will be challenged at some point by new Royal Brent Abernathy; Jesus Colome, $7, already lost the Tampa closer's job; and Rafael Soriano, $5, failed to make the Mariners out of Spring Training.
Category to trade: HR/RBI depth.

Only Santana looks like a particularly poor buy among his pitchers although Steve Sparks offers relatively little upside for a buck. He drafted a decent group of starters and acceptable relievers in Acevedo, Colome, and an $18 Ugueth Urbina, however I don't see the number of skilled pitchers necessary to finish above the middle-of-the-pack in any category but saves.

Offensively Wood nabbed a solid power base without rostering anyone worse than a platoon player. Of course the slow starts of Teixeira and a $17 Jeremy Giambi could leave them short on at-bats, and an $11 Chris Woodward appears tremendously overpriced. Wood's sheer starting depth will allow him to finish highly in RBI and runs and he has potential to finish solidly in HR and SB as well, but I see several significant BA drains here.

Summary: 8+ points in five categories and a few other middle-of-the-pack finishes should let him sneak into the first division, but a lack of high-upside picks doesn't make him a logical top 4 pick.

Owner: Jeff Erickson
Site: Rotowire
$ Left: $0.
Split: $197H/$63P = 76/24.
Reserve roster: Rich Harden, Frank Castillo, Mitch Meluskey, Josh Stewart, Albie Lopez, and Hiram Bocachica.

Nice pick: Mark Sweeney, $30; he's a generally undervalued player who consistently returns $25-$35, including a top BA.
Top sleeper: Damian Easley, $6; we believe he'll make a strong comeback, and starting in Tampa might even give him more RBI opportunities than he might have seen in Detroit.
Potential bust: Karim Garcia, $16; we wouldn't have paid near this much for someone with only two solid months in the majors.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Mitch Meluskey.
Early bad luck: The Opening Day injury to Erickson's $35 Derek Jeter will leave him hurting on steals, runs, and possibly BA, and even a substantial FAAB bid on Erick Almonte won't nearly compensate for the difference. Aaron Harang, $6, offered more upside than John Halama, $2, and a $2 Ryan Rupe didn't break camp with the Red Sox.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

Erickson masterly echoed Jason Grey's 2002 pitching plans by rostering 8 current starting pitchers, along with Oakland starter backups Aaron Harang, $6, and Rich Harden. He didn't spend more than $6 on any pitcher except for a $25 Mark Mulder and $10 Cory Lidle, who were both solid picks at those prices. I'll be quite surprised if he doesn't finish highly in wins and strikeouts, and I also like his chances for no less than several qualitative points.

Unfortunately Jeter's injury leaves him short on offense, and he failed to secure any true position player bargains. Neither of his $2 catchers, Mark L. Johnson and Tom Wilson, seem likely to exceed their prices, and even a $35+ season from his $25 Hideki Matsui might not allow him impressive finishes in any offensive category.

Summary: Grey's all-starter strategy earned a title last year, and even with Jeter's injury and a low-upside offense, I believe Erickson drafted a team capable of finishing in the money.

Owner: Matt Berry
Site: Rotoworld
$ Left: $0.
Split: $168H/$92P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: Jason Johnson, Andres Torres, Robert Person, Doug Davis, Armando Rios, and Ricky Gutierrez.

Nice pick: David Eckstein, $20; I wouldn't be shocked to see Eckstein reach $20 by August on his way to a $30 season.
Top sleeper: Dean Palmer, $1; if he remains healthy, a 20 HR/80 RBI season would be very helpful even with a poor BAA.
Potential bust: Willie Harris, $7; he might not even return to the majors until mid-season.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Travis Chapman, $1.
Early bad luck: Carlos Beltran, $32, will miss the first two weeks while on the DL; Chan Ho Park, $9, has pitched badly while appearing potentially injured; Andy Van Hekken, $2, couldn't win a job in a terrible rotation; Chapman failed to make the Tigers; Andres Torres lost the centerfield job, thereby costing Berry a couple dozen steals.
Category to trade: Stolen bases.

Spending $40 on Pedro put a large portion of Berry's fantasy eggs in one basket, where they were soon joined by $35 of questionable closer Kaz Sasaki and Jorge Julio. Allocating $75 to three pitchers is rarely a smart move, and while this could pay off handsomely, I can't think of many riskier strategies. Berry compounded his opening selections by failing to secure a second solid starter, essentially wasting Pedro's strikeouts. However I see substantial three-category upside if he quickly deals Pedro for a few solid infielders and middle relievers. A total of $5 spent on Antonio Osuna, Jason Grimsley, and Tom Gordon, combined with his closers, gives Berry an excellent pitching core, and a few solid middle relievers are nearly always available to FAAB early in the year.

A stars-and-scrubs offense leaves him with a superb $110 outfield of Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, Juan Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Tim Salmon, all within a couple bucks of their probable values. However only Eckstein and an $18 Brad Fullmer look likely to post double-digit values, so while I see enough of a foundation here to expect him to attain a reasonable number of offensive points, I don't see enough depth to suggest more than a few points in RBI and runs in particular.

Summary: Berry's success depends on whether he trades Pedro, keeps him and adds a couple solid starters in FAAB, or keeps Pedro but can't manage to field a consistently effective pitching staff. I'll gamble on one of the two former options by expecting him to finish near the first division, however a poor trade or bad free agents will leave him struggling in the lower reaches of the standings.

Owner: Mat Olkin
Site: Sports Weekly
$ Left: $0.
Split: $173H/$87P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Todd Zeile, Tony Graffanino, David Riske, Jason Conti, Chris Hammond, and Jhonny Peralta.

Nice pick: Matt Anderson, $10; he could double this price as long he remains a closer for some team all year.
Top sleeper: Chad Fox, $3; regardless of his early difficulty, he's still our pick to emerge as the most reliable Red Sox closer.
Potential bust: Roy Halladay, $26; while we consider him one of the top starters in the majors, this seems like a high price considering his recently increased workload.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jhonny Peralta and probably Ben Broussard, $2, and Juan Rivera, $1.
Early bad luck: Neither Broussard nor Rivera managed to break camp in the majors, and both now look likely to spend most of the year in the minors.
Category to trade: Solid middle relievers with closer potential.

Aside from Anderson and Fox, Lance Carter, $3, already has moved into a closer's job, and Cliff Politte, $7, is the undisputed favorite to assume the Toronto job once they deal Escobar. Halladay, a $19 Jeff Weaver, and a $15 Tim Wakefield all could finish among the ERA leaders, leaving Olkin's pitching quite strong at least in three categories. Unfortunately I don't envision these starters exceeding their prices, likely leaving him short on wins and strikeouts.

He took at least two notable risks on offense by rostering Broussard and Rivera, however he didn't spent more than $27 on any player and managed to draft a team filled players obtained at cost. Olkin's problem is that Broussard, Rivera, and his $1 Brandon Berger don't look likely to earn more than about $5 total, and his only reserve outfielder is Jason Conti. The upside to these moves is that he drafted a nicely balanced infield and two outfield studs in a $2 Garrett Anderson and $24 Carlos Lee, and while spending $19 on catchers is excessive, Toby Hall and Ben Davis are quality picks with good potential.

Summary: Olkin drafted one of the riskiest teams on the board, but I believe the combination of a good skill foundation and even decent roster management will let him finish in the money.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm going to spend much of the next two weeks reviewing drafts, first spending this week continuing our experts' league coverage by looking at Tout Wars, and then next week we'll look at a few of our draft experiences this year.

While I could begin in-season player analysis now, I don't see any benefit in examining or judging players based on less than two-to-three weeks of stats. Right now you should only address problems identified immediately after your draft or caused by catastrophic injury. Anyone willing to make snap decisions about their team for any other reason fails to understand the concept of sample size. Please remain patient with your rosters as you shouldn't pay much attention to standings until close to May.