Today's Fantasy Rx

To make this a little easier for those of you following along in the Sports Weekly 2003 Fantasy Guide, I'll review the teams in the order that Sports Weekly lists them.

Please refer to the LABR National League rosters here.

Owner: Jay Lalach
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $181H/$79P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Trey Hodges, Jose Ortiz, Tony Clark, Jeff C. D'Amico, Ruben Mateo, and Rod Beck.

Nice pick: Paul Lo Duca, $13; a quality price that he should nicely exceed.
Top sleeper: Felipe Lopez, $5; he'll match this price easily, and any Reds' infield injury could propel Lopez to $15+.
Potential bust: Jason Isringhausen, $23; I doubt Izzy will stay healthy long enough to earn this price, and several cheaper saves' options were available.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jose Ortiz, R, signed in Japan.
Early bad luck: Izzy; Trevor Hoffman, $8; Orlando Hernandez, $5; and Brandon Duckworth, $5, are all on the DL, and one of them are guaranteed to return before May at the earliest. Rod Beck, R, didn't break camp in the majors.
Category to trade: Saves, especially if Felix Rodriguez, $8, Dave Veres, $4, and Rod Beck, R, see decent opportunities.

He overspent on pitching to compensate for not paying more than $25 for anyone on offense, and while he wanted to spread his money on hitting categories, he didn't find many bargains. His team almost seems more geared towards a 5x5 league, and I simply don't see sufficient power here, especially given a Mets' preference that resulted in rostering Mike Piazza, $25; Mo Vaughn, $18; Edgardo Alfonzo, $22; and Roger Cedeno, $18.

At least Lalach drafted a nice pitching base by drafting a couple closers and solid middle relievers, but overpaying on guys like Felix Rodriguez didn't leave him enough room for quality help at the secondary offensive positions (CR, MI, 5OF, and UT). Unfortunately selections like an $8 Mike Hampton and a $15 Russ Ortiz leave him little margin for error in the qualitative categories.

Summary: Lalach drafted a decent team based on probable profit, however I don't see sufficient value in enough categories for an in-the-money finish.

Owner: Larry Schechter
Site: 2002 CDM DC Champion
$ Left: $0.
Split: $159H/$101P = 101/61.
Reserve roster: David Weathers, Jose Vizcaino, Orlando Merced, Giovanni Carrara, Carlos Silva, and Matt Franco.

Nice pick: Chipper Jones, $32; consistently excellent skills make Chipper a quality investment.
Top sleeper: Gabe Kapler, $10; he could triple this value if an injury makes him a full-time starter in Coors.
Potential bust: Robb Nen, $27; this is a high price even assuming his health.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Impressively, everyone selected opened the yeara in the majors or on the DL.
Early bad luck: Juan Uribe, $5, will miss at least two months, and Nen's injury will leave him short on saves.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

Schechter was "amazed by the quality [he] got in the reserve round", a statement that obviously indicates he's never paid much attention to LABR; anyone can draft 29 solid players with a little patience and the knowledge that rookies are effectively useless as reserve picks. While I don't see double-digit upside among his reserves, he at least drafted much better depth than most teams.

He also found hitting overpriced, but stopping his bidding on Vlad at $46 likely was a serious mistake. Other than Dave Roberts at $21, I don't see much obvious upside among any of his hitters, leaving him without a solid foundation in any category besides perhaps BA.

While he drafted several decent starters along with a couple solid middle relievers like Steve Kline at $6 and Mike Koplove at $2, I also don't expect any of hit pitchers to exceed their draft price. Only a strong finish in wins seems guaranteed.

Summary: I see decent value throughout his roster, but the lack of double-digit potential among his single-digit buys leaves him with an unimpressive team likely to struggle to avoid the second division.

Owner: Mike Gianella
Site: alexpatton.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $158H/$102P = 61/39.
Reserve roster: Jimmy Journell, Rey Sanchez, Jason Middlebrook, Robert Machado, John Buck, and John Ennis.

Nice pick: Octavio Dotel, $10; while a very high price for a middle reliever, he could double this with a little luck.
Top sleeper: Tim Worrell, $1; he looks like the closer as long as Nen remains injured.
Potential bust: Todd Helton, $35; his chronic back problems scare us.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jose Reyes, $3; Johns Buck and Ennis.
Early bad luck: Joe Thurston, $9, somehow lost the starting second base job he owned since the Grudzielanek trade; Houston failed to open a spot for his $3 Jason Lane; and Livan Hernandez, $1, looks like a horrible choice now that he's not pitching half his games at PacBell.
Category to trade: Injury-prone offensive studs.

Anyone targeting a $175/85 in the current fantasy environment likely doesn't comprehend the consistent turmoil of most pitching points. He only spend more than $9 on five position players, and his $35 Todd Helton, $26 Roberto Alomar, $26 Larry Walker, $21 Ivan Rodriguez, and $18 Moises Alou all will struggle to meet these prices even if they each avoid the DL. At least he owns Thurston's replacement thanks to a dollar bid on Alex Cora.

I also see little value among his pitchers as a total of $58 on Gagne and Oswalt seems rather inflated to me, and most of our readers know that we find spending $15 on Glavine to be an error in judgment. Somehow even his gamble on a $1 Aaron Heilman with a reserve pick of Jason Middlebrook didn't work as Middlebrook failed to break camp in the majors.

Summary: Gianella's team looks set to fight Jim McGuire's team of $159 split between pitching and Nevin for last, although he's correct in his analyzation that there's enough upside here for a very impressive finish if everything breaks right. Losing Thurston to the minors at least for a few weeks is about the worst problem this team can afford.

Owner: Gene McCaffrey & John Menna
Site: Wise Guy Baseball
$ Left: $0.
Split: $147H/$113P = 57/43.
Reserve roster: Kenny Lofton, Francisco Cordova, Julio Franco, Chris Carpenter, Joey Hamilton, and Tagg Bozied.

Nice pick: Jake Peavy, $6; I don't think comparisons to Prior are unfounded, and he barely cost a fourth of the Cubs' future ace.
Top sleeper: Rick Ankiel, $1; he's easily the highest-risk, highest-upside sleeper I've seen here in a couple years, though he seems closer to success now than at any time since his first playoff appearance.
Potential bust: Mark Bellhorn, $13; his likely weak BA will keep him in single digits even if he stays in the lineup all year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Francisco Cordova and Tagg Bozied.
Early bad luck: Mike Lieberthal, $10, already is hurting, and Matt Stairs, $2, lost a starting job to Kenny Lofton, who the Wise Guys thankfully also rostered. The demotion of their $6 John Patterson doesn't hurt much given their starting depth.
Category to trade: Pitching, pitching, pitching.

They planned to spend $110 for 44 points of pitching and wound up dropping $113, an amount that seems rather high considering both their $33 John Smoltz and $23 Greg Maddux look incapable of turning profits. Fortunately a $15 Mike DeJean is a good second closer, and I really like the upside of a total of $35 to secure Peavy, Matt Clement, Kris Benson, Adam Eaton, and Mark Redman. Unfortunately a largely disastrous reserve draft leaves them short on depth.

The elevated pitching expenditure also leaves the Wise Guys short on offense as not a single player that cost more than $2 seems likely to noticeably exceed his draft price. I don't see any offensive category in which they can reasonably expect more than a few points.

Summary: A pitching sweep isn't unreasonable, but they'll need excellent roster management to secure the offensive improvements necessary for a solid first division finish.

Owner: Eric Karabell
Site: ESPN.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $187H/$73P = 72/28.
Reserve roster: Zach Day, Denny Stark, Mike Rivera, Jeff Suppan, Andres Galarraga, and Matt Kinney.

Nice pick: Albert Pujols, $36; investing in a peaking superstar with 1/3/O qualification rarely looks like a bad idea.
Top sleeper: Jeff Suppan, R; while an unlikely scenario, I wouldn't be shocked to see him approach double-digit value now that he's escaped Kansas City.
Potential bust: Josh Fogg, $4; I suspect Karabell will bench him before too much damage occurs, but Fogg looks like one of the worst bets in the game to us.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Dennis Tankersley, $1.
Early bad luck: Reggie Taylor, $5, starts on the bench since the Reds didn't trade Griffey; Johnny Estrada, $1, failed to makes the Braves; Craig Wilson, $10, lost his starting job; and Mike Rivera, R, couldn't crack the Padres .
Category to trade: Bobby Abreu's four-category dominance might nee to be sacrificed to fix his HR/RBI problem.

While he found good value in a lot of players, spending $31 on Scott Rolen and $22 each on Jose Mesa and Mike Williams left him without sufficient cap room to secure a respectable outfield; after Abreu, his best OF is an $11 Rob Fick. He isn't even guaranteed a great finish in steals, so he'll only coast in BA.

I don't object to spending $44 on two closers but tossing $15 on Al Leiter seems questionable to me. Secondary selections of a $5 Brett Myers, $1 Tim Redding, $1 Paul Wilson, and especially Denny Stark and Matt Kinney seem guaranteed to destroy his qualitative marks. We would have punted wins given his offensive problems, and focusing on both wins and saves looks very risky.

Summary: Only good luck and a healthy roster will keep him in the first division since he lacks depth almost everywhere except the corners..

Owner: Greg Ambrosius
Site: Fantasy Sports Magazine
$ Left: $0.
Split: $177H/$83P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Ray Lankford, Curt Leskanic, Todd Ritchie, Orlando Palmeiro, Pedro Feliz, and Ruben Quevedo.

Nice pick: Edgar Renteria, $25; another great buy of the best NL shortstop.
Top sleeper: Kyle Farnsworth, $2; a move of Juan Cruz into the rotation almost would assure that Farnsworth finishes the year with double-digit saves.
Potential bust: Scott Stewart, $17; he'd have trouble earning this if completely healthy and the sole closer, so the instability of Montreal's bullpen might mean he fails to earn double-digits.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Ray Lankford, although he was a respectable gamble at the time.
Early bad luck: Adam Hyzdu, $1, slipped from a potential platoon CF to AAA, and Vincente Padilla, $16, doesn't seem fully healthy.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

While we generally avoid designing our offense in this fashion, Ambrosius added several solid starter without drastically overpaying anywhere. Of course he also lacks any obvious bargains, but no one here is worse than a fourth outfielder. We've seen veteran position player squads finish solidly across-the-board many times, so 30+ offensive points look fairly reasonable.

His pitching staff includes almost no one we'd advised targeting aside from Farnsworth, but he only needs good health here to add another 30 points in pitching. One good FAAB pick-up of a closer could push him to an impressive finish, and even pitchers with weak skills like a $7 Kirk Rueter still should help with wins.

Summary: A balanced squad with reasonable depth should keep Ambrosius in contention, but he lacks the potential profits necessary to finish first.

Looking over the league as a whole, Dennis & Paley look like Cockcroft's main opposition to a repeat, and Cockcroft may possess a slight advantage thanks to employing a less risky strategy than Dennis & Paley's straight stars-and-scrubs. Devert, Pletkin, Ambrosius, Allen, Lalach, and McCaffrey & Menna will compete for the other two money slots, and the former two teams seem to hold a definite edge over mot of the competition. Diamond Challenge champ Larry Schechter will compete with Karabell and Hunt as underdog teams trying to sneak into the first division, and the draft disasters of Gianella and McGuire likely will leave these two owners at the end of the pack.

I'll continue tomorrow with discussion of the 2003 AL LABR draft.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:@COL(D.Oliver)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:@BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Curt Schilling: Sun:@COL(J.Jennings)
Matt Morris: Sat:HOU(T.Redding)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@STL(J.Simontacchi)
Kevin Millwood: Sat:PIT(K.Millwood)
Kerry Wood: Sun:@CIN(P.Wilson)
Wade Miller: None
Roy Halladay: Sat:@MIN(K.Rogers)
Jason Schmidt: None
Mark Prior: None
Josh Beckett: Sat:@ATL(G.Maddux)
Kurt Ainsworth: Fri:@MIL(T.Ritchie).

Morris and Millwood are automatic as the only home starts, and we also see no reason not to run Pedro or Oswalt. Running one-starts in Colorado seems a little risky, and we're also not inclined to let any pitcher throw in the GAB right now. Beckett and Ainsworth seem slightly stronger picks than Halladay given their respective opposition, so we'll finish our rotation with our two inexpensive pitchers.

On offense we'll reserve Ichiro since I don't see him stealing much in Texas and Dave Roberts for similar reasons in San Diego. Orlando Cabrera will sit since I'm concerned about the New York weather(although we're deploying Vlad since we have the cash), and Aubrey Huff hits our bench since he's facing Yankee pitching and we need space to deploy our Rockies. Lastly we're sitting Berkman because we don't envision him exactly feasting on Cardinals' pitching.

We were quite tempted to burn a move now, likely picking up Foulke or MacDougal since we're worried about Colome's usage pattern, but we're going to hold off for a couple more days.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 1b: April 4-April 6

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Frank Thomas		920
1B	Josh Phelps		670
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Jose Hernandez		940
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Larry Walker		1400
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr. 	820
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
DH	Alex Rodriguez		2010
DH	Preston Wilson		1220

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Josh Beckett		700
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700
RP	Jesus Colome		400

Today's Fantasy Rx: We see no objection to some degree of price-enforcing, however we've seen many drafts torpedoed, including a couple of our own, because we got caught price-enforcing starting pitchers. Overpaying on offense by a buck or two generally won't hurt you, but due to the volatility of pitching prices in general, even price-enforcing starters to 75% of their draft values might leave you without enough resources to secure a solid offense.