Today's Fantasy Rx

As in 2002, I intend to break down each team with a more in-depth review than is normally present in the annual Baseball Weekly Fantasy issue. Tomorrow I'll also offer my projections for the Top 3 teams, a prediction that we'll revisit at the end of the season.

The one major change involving this year's LABR drafts is that John Hunt selected five 2002 league champions among SW readers to join the NL league, and 2002 league champions comprised fully half of the 2003 AL LABR league. Therefore the severe reduction in the number of fantasy professionals involved in the draft opens each league to more unconventional strategies than in past years. While I still believe examining these leagues holds value for our readers, we'll reexamine our inclusion of these LABR reviews a year from now.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along in the Sports Weekly 2003 Fantasy Guide, I'll review the teams in the order that Sports Weekly lists them.

Please refer to the LABR National League rosters here.

Owner: John Hunt
Site: Sports Weekly
$ Left: $0.
Split: $169H/$91P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: Wilson Betemit, Khalil Greene, Ricky Ledee, Humberto Cota, Todd Linden, and Bruch Chen.

Nice pick: Juan Cruz, $1; we'd pick Cruz even if he hadn't struck out six straight batters on Opening Day, but he possesses double-digit immediate upside even if left in middle relief, though he's quite capable of starting or closing.
Top sleeper: Ricky Ledee, R; Hunt insured against any Marlon Byrd struggles by securing the Phillies' only CF alternative.
Potential bust: Paul Byrd, $11; he's already on the DL and could miss significant time, but he wasn't earning $10+ even when healthy.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Wilson Betemit, Khalil Greene, and Todd Linden.
Early bad luck: Antonio Alfonseca, $17, will miss at least a month on the DL; Alex Sanchez, $17, is still recovering from his 2002 injuries; .D. Drew, $11, might not start regularly until June; Paul Byrd will miss a couple weeks on the DL; and Jaret Wright, $2, never made a case to close .
Category to trade: Potentially runs.

Hunt targeted a top starter, grabbing Randy at $35, however he overpaid for Byrd, Alfonseca, Matt Mantei($16), and Mike Remlinger($6) instead of following through on his plan to "be very thrifty with the rest of [the] staff". Though we like Brad Lidge($1), his lack of pitching depth might force him to keep Jeriome Robertson($1) and Bruce Chen in the lineup, thereby potentially negating much of the benefits of drafting Randy in the first place.

While his offense contains some decent player, I see little value or depth here. Overspending on pitching left him with Tyler Houston($1), Jack Wilson($1), and Brian Bucanan($2) filling the bottom of his roster, and wasting reserve picks on players with little chance of seeing much playing time this year leaves him few immediate alternatives to replace J.D. Drew, $11. There's not even much upside in his expensive player like Gary Sheffield, $29, and Jose Hernandez, $22, so even securing a first division finish will depend on smart in-season moves.

Summary: Without much probable profit among his picks, Hunt will struggle to remain in the middle of the pack barring a couple of gift trades.

Owner: Dean Devert
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $191H/$69P = 73/27.
Reserve roster: Chuck Finley, Jayson Durocher, Chip Ambres, Victor Hall, Brian L. Hunter, and Claudio Vargas.

Nice pick: Orlando Cabrera, $19; Cabrera could challenge Renteria for NL SS supremacy as he continues emerging as a four-category threat.
Top sleeper: Chuck Finley, R; he'll likely return to St. Louis in May, and he has every chance to earn $5-10 this season.
Potential bust: Shawn Green, $32; I just don't view him in the same class as Sammy($36) or Pat the Bat($31).
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chip Ambres, Victor Hall, and Claudio Vargas.
Early bad luck: Bobby Hill, $8, played his way out of a job; Mike Crudale, $4, was sent down by St. Louis; and Javier Valentin, $1, couldn't win the Brewers' job and earned a trade to Tampa Bay.
Category to trade: OF power.

Devert splurged for both Randy Wolf, $18, and Byung-Hyun Kim, $16, and he still didn't bother picking up anyone likely to save more than a couple games. Fortunately Wolf, Kim, Kip Wells, $9, Ben Sheets, $7, and Brett Tomko, $5, provide an excellent foundation to his staff, and middle relievers like Vlad Nunez, $6, won't hurt him. The concern here is Todd Jones, $2, Ryan Dempster, $1, and Kaz Ishii, $1, all of whom could seriously damage his qualitative marks.

At least Devert's offense shows intriguing upside. An outfield of Sammy, Burrell, Green, Juan Encarnacion, $23, and Marvin Benard, $1, gives him a superb core, and aside from Bobby Hill he paid reasonable prices for at least platoon starters at each infield position. A reserve pick of Brian L. Hunter allows him to bench a $1 Enrique Cruz at UT, and both Valentin and Todd Hundley are excellent $1 catchers. Devert assembled a balanced offense, and especially if he can find a few saves while limiting the qualitative damage of his weaker starters, I see no reason he won't remain competitive much of the year.

Summary: With a chance at 10+ points in each offensive category and a good base of pitching wins, I'll be surprised if he doesn't finish in the money.

Owner: Jim McGuire
Site: N/A
$ Left: $4.
Split: $124H/$132P = 48/52.
Reserve roster: Luke Hudson, Carl Pavano, Keith Ginter, Luke Allen, Salomon Torre, and Brian Banks.

Nice pick: Preston Wilson, $32; while he won't exceed this projection for a notable margin, $30ish is a reasonable price for Wilson in Colorado.
Top sleeper: Ramon E. Martinez, $1; he only needs playing time to earn double-digit value.
Potential bust: Wade Miller, $22; he'll need good luck to earn much more than half this price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Phil Nevin, $27, and Luke Hudson.
Early bad luck: Nevin's injury ruins McGuire's season, but Pablo Ozuna, $4, will miss at least the first two months, and Jack Cust, $2, won't see much time in Baltimore this year..
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

Rarely have I seen a draft handled quite this badly as McGuire severely overspent hi planned $85 pitching budget while price enforcing on aces. He paid $32 for Schilling, $23 for Prior, $23 for Kerry, $22 for Wade Miller, and even spent $27 on Billy Wagner. I'll be surprised if any of these pitchers earns a profit, and McGuire likely paid $127 for about $100 of talent. Paying a buck each for Scott Sauerbeck, Kevin Walker, Blaine Neal, Brian Boehringer, and Kevin Jarvis gives him a couple decent middle relievers to fill his staff, however he's not even guaranteed to win any pitching category despite spending $19 more on pitching than anyone else.

Surprisingly he drafted about half a decent offense, but the Nevin injury ended any hope he had of competing this year. His best bet is to shop both Wilson and his $31 Jim Thome for speed and a second closer, and some smart roster management could let him to reach 45+ points in pitching and 8-10 points in SB and BA, possibly allowing him into the first division.

Summary: McGuire can't blame this disaster entirely on Nevin as no one should price enforce on starting pitching with any regularity. Even one pitching injury could leave this team fighting to stay out of last place.

Owner: Steve Pletkin
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $201H/$59P = 77/23.
Reserve roster: Chin-Feng Chen, Matt Cepicky, Clay Condrey, Ben Petrick, Neifi Perez, and Abraham Nunez.

Nice pick: Lance Berkman, $35; if you're going to pay for an elite OF, this is about the most to pay for anyone but Vlad. His selection of Bonds at $37 also isn't a poor pick.
Top sleeper: Brandon Villafuerte, $5; while paying $13 to buy both Villafuerte and Witasick seems excessive, his investment in Villafuerte looks very solid right now.
Potential bust: A.J. Burnett, $17; he'll have a difficult time earning this much even if he remains healthy, and Florida does not appear the best environment to keep pitchers healthy.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chin-Feng Chen, Matt Cepicky, and Abraham Nunez.
Early bad luck: His $6 Rob Mackowiak lost his starting job to Kenny Lofton and Chris Reitsma, $1, somehow lost his job in Spring Training.
Category to trade: Power.

Pletkin tied for the league lead by spending 77% of his cash on offense, and while I'm concerned he lacks depth with a $1 Jamey Caroll at 3B, a $1 Alex Gonzalez at MIF, and two $1 catchers, he also grabbed six offensive studs at reasonable values. Only his $27 Adam Dunn seems overly questionable as even selections like a $10 Alex G. Gonzalez look solid. My only concern is he appears one speedster short of acing all the offensive categories.

Unfortunately his pitching staff could prevent him from a better finish than merely cracking the first division. Spending $4 for Joey Eischen and Mark Guthrie given him some qualitative help, but I don't see more than 30 saves here, and his $1 Jennings and $1 Jimmy Haynes could wreck his ERA and WHIP. Neither his $21 Matt Morris nor a $17 A.J. Burnett qualify as anything other than overpaid injury concerns. I might have favored this team to win if he'd put an extra $20 into saves, but now I think he'll struggle to earn more than 15 points in pitching.

Summary: A combination of 50+ points of hitting and 10-15 points of pitching will net him a first division finish, however Pletkin will need some great in-season pitching moves to finish high in the money.

Owner: Doug Dennis & Josh Paley
Site: BBHQ
$ Left: $0.
Split: $200H/$60P = 77/23.
Reserve roster: Peter Munro, Joe Roa, Ray King, Duaner Sanchez, Jaime Cerda, and Francis Beltran.

Nice pick: Vladimir Guerrero, $47; he could earn 25% more than this price, making this pick a superb anchor for any team.
Top sleeper: $1 youngsters Jesse Foppert, Jerome Williams, Kirk Saarloos, and, of course, Jose Acevedo; plenty of decent middle relievers are available as substitutes, including their reserve picks of King and Cerda, and even a June promotion of one of these starters could net double-digit value in return.
Potential bust: Adrian Beltre, $21; they overpaid for both Beltre and a $10 Jeff Liefer, although neither of these selections are egregiously bad moves.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Tony Alvarez, $1.
Early bad luck: Liefer lost the starting 1B job, only their $4 Kurt Ainsworth broke camp among their half-dozen rookie pitchers, and the injury to their $3 Pedro Astacio virtually guarantees a low finish in wins.
Category to trade: Offensive superstars with Vlad, a $34 Jeff Kent, a $33 Brian Giles, and a $27 Aaron Boone.

Dennis and Paley grabbed an extra closer rather than spending $220-230 on offense as planned, however they otherwise masterfully executed a stars-and-scrubs/LIMA plan hybrid. The major problem is they only have two starting outfielders, so they should consider shopping Giles for a couple of $15 replacements and pitching help. I'm also concerned that they didn't find enough value in their $1 player on offense as none of their four Dollar Days picks owns much immediate upside.

Their pitching staff obviously intrigues me, and while spending for both a $27 Armando Benitez and $20 Jose Jimenez seems overkill, they wisely elected all pitcher on reserve. I also believe they're more comfortable quickly FAABing replacements on both sides of the ball than most other owners here, so they didn't lose too much value by selecting 8 players that opened the year in the minor.

Summary: I see no reason why they shouldn't finish first, however more than one injury to their offensive studs could leave them floundering at the bottom of the first division. Stars-and-scrubs is one of the riskiest approaches available to owners, but we don't disagree with their selection of that strategy here.

Owner: Mark Allen
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $195H/$65P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Mike Bacsik, Garrett Stephenson, Rickey Henderson, Sun-Woo Kim, Tom Goodwin, and Horacio Ramirez.

Nice pick: Jason Kendall, $14; spending less than $15 for one of the elite fantasy catchers looks like a nice bargain to me.
Top sleeper: Morgan Ensberg, $2; he could emerge as a double-digit value with any injury to Geoff Blum.
Potential bust: Ryan Klesko, $28; not only is the Padres' lineup largely disintegrating, but Klesko just doesn't appear healthy.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Unfortunately Rickey probably falls into this category, although we can't blame Allen for taking a chance in the reserve rounds.
Early bad luck: Geoff Jenkins, $17, opened the year on the DL, and his $1 T.J. Tucker gamble doesn't seem likely to net many saves.
Category to trade: Power and offensive depth, particularly with Ron Belliard, $4, starting, and Tom Goodwin likely to steal over a dozen bases as a Cubs' outfield reserve.

Spending 75% of his budget on offense gave Allen a deep and balanced group of position players, however he seems a little shallow on steals even if Goodwin stays active in place of a $1 Vinny Castilla. I'm also not convinced that he'll post a great BA, so if someone like his $23 Ken Griffey gets off to a good start on the Reds' homestand, Allen should leverage Griffey's upside into someone like Luis Castillo or Dave Roberts.

His $19 Scott Williamson, $18 Javier Vazquez, and $11 Kevin Brown all are reasonable picks, however going $8 for Elmer Dessens and $3 on Andy Ashby leave him with Whip worries. He also doesn't own any safe middle relievers aside from maybe a $2 Scott Strickland, and activating anyone like Mike Bacsik or Horacio Ramirez early in the season would be very risky play.

Summary: I see enough potential here to expect he'll contend, however I see several qualitative disasters on his pitching staff that he should look to replace.

Owner: Tristan Cockcroft
Site: CBS Sportsline
$ Left: $0.
Split: $176H/$84P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Kenny Rogers, Shawn Estes, Dustin Hermanson, Brian Moehler, Wily Mo Pena, and Chad Tracy.

Nice pick: Luis Castillo, $24; this is a great price for a potential top 5 earner.
Top sleeper: Dustin Hermanson, R; he flashed solid skills back in Montreal and could close if Izzy remains on the DL.
Potential bust: Jeromy Burnitz, $9; continuing BA troubles could leave him struggling to earn any positive value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chad Tracy.
Early bad luck: Jim Edmonds, $25, opened another year banged up, and the health of Brad Penny, $7, is as uncertain as any pitcher in the game outside of ex-Indians on San Diego.
Category to trade: Steals.

I'm not sure there's a single overly poor pick on his 23-man roster, and spending $3 for Chad Moeller and Mike Redmond at catcher is an excellent investment. Nabbing at least platoon players at every position should insure a top finish in RBI as well as good homer numbers.

While I think he overpaid for unlikely save potential by spending $8 on Luis Vizcaino and $5 on Tim Spooneybarger, I have little argument with drafting Kevin Millwood, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, and Carlos Zambrano for a total of $58. As long as he never uses Estes or Moehler, Cockcroft again should finish solidly at least in three pitching categories, and he owns the depth necessary to grab a closer early in the year.

Summary: The defending NL LABR champion looks prepared to battle Dennis & Paley all year long.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners in single-year leagues should not draft anyone they don't expect to reach the majors until after summer begins. If you truly want to own a youngster unlikely to see the majors much before the All-Star Game, save your FAAB and then grab him when promoted. Everyone you draft at the beginning of the year in non-keeper leagues either should open the year in the majors, on the DL, or in AAA. We don't even see much merit in hoping for the extremely rare charge to the majors of a prospective superstar like Mark Prior.