Today's Fantasy Rx

Opening Night will never have quite the same meaning to us as Opening Day, and now the ability of baseball fans in recent years to watch nearly any team's game provides for a host of viewing options not available on Sunday night.

The Cubs/Mets noon opener provided the true start of the season for Northside fans, and a surprising four runs in the top of the first gave us an unexpectedly pleasant surprise. Of course, we expected to beat the fading Glavine, but embarrassing the Mets 15-2 didn't seem reasonable. While this doesn't compensate for 1969, we can't say we object to the final result in the slightest.

New York faces a long season if their terrible defensive problems continue. The Floyd/Cedeno/Burnitz outfield should remain comically ineffective until Art Howe increases the playing time of Timo Perez at minimal loss to the offense, but the infield problems are more worrisome for owners of Mets' pitchers like Leiter and Trachsel. Alomar looked ridiculously dispassionate in lobbing one throw to Vaughn, and even the benefits of Rey Sanchez at short won't compensate for the problems elsewhere in the field. Barring an unlikely turnaround from the Mets' offense, this team will struggle to .500 in 2004.

While the Cubs' overall performance was nice, a few individual performances merit specific attention. Juan Cruz tied an all-time team mark with six straight strikeouts in relief. He should have pitched two perfect innings but Mark Bellhorn bobbled a slow bouncer near the mound from Piazza that the Shea scorer unconscionably ruled a hit. Cruz will stay in the bullpen as long as all five Cubs' starters avoid the DL, and he owns every chance of challenging Octavio Dotel as the best reliever in baseball if he continues to dominate as expected in these short stints.

Corey Patterson's 2 HR, 7 RBI, and excellent defense indicate he's finally developing into a solid starter after only a year and a half in the majors. Few people seem to realize that Patterson's only about eight months older than Mark Teixeira, and he's seen less professional at-bats than a probable Rookie of the Year contender like Travis Hafner and has played only about a season more than Brandon Larson, Marlon Byrd, or Hee Seop Choi. Patterson still must improve his plate discipline, but he remains on a superstar track even if he's years away from a .300/30/100 season.

Two pieces of news should lighten Cubs' fans hearts. Mark Grudzielanek, who stole the leadoff job from Bobby Hill despite missing most of the spring due to injury, saw over a dozen pitches over his first two at-bats. This patience continued throughout the lineup as Chicago forced Tom Glavine into making 90 pitches before he departed with an out remaining in only the fourth inning. Grudzielanek's never averaged more than 3.74 #P/PA in a season and his career mark is only a 3.45 #P/PA; he saw 20 pitches in four appearances before leaving due to another mild injury yesterday, and we certainly hope this pattern continues.

The truly happy development for Chicagoans is the return of Steve Stone to the booth after a two-year absence. Chip Caray seems less than five years away from donning his grandfather's black-rimmed spectacles, and Steve provides the necessary counter for Chip, a role neither Joe Carter nor Dave Otto seemed comfortable filling. We don't mind Otto on the pre-game show, however he doesn't belong on the regular broadcast right now. The departure of Carter also means that we no longer have to leave games muted while listening to Pat & Ron on the radio. Although we expect Chip and Steve will annoy us at times like any announcers, at least their rapport includes some moments of amusement. Comparing the 39 degree first pitch temperature to the likely chillier environment expected for the first night game Wednesday night, Steve mentioned he could surround Chip with a flock of sheep, to which Chip responded "That would be a baa-a-a-d idea." Sophomoric humor, perhaps, but still a welcome upgrade from the past two years.

Greg Maddux somehow matched his former teammate's weak start as the former and current Braves' ace each gave up four runs in the first, a promising opening for anyone hoping for a changing of the guard in the NL East.

We didn't spend too much time watching the Twins/Tigers game, however we heard one announcer, likely Rich Eisen, coin a truly appropriate market slogan for the home team: "Your 2003 Detroit Tigers - Can we see some ID?" With 20-year-old Jeremy Bonderman debuting Wednesday night, we only hope Detroit's marketing department embraces this idea to court the youth market and revive interest in a team likely to lose over a 100 games.

Neither of the mid-afternoon games overly appealed to us, and we didn't pay close attention to the Pirates/Reds game since we plan to see the GAB in much greater detail later this week when the Cubs visit. The early results definitely support our belief that this stadium will benefit hitters on a level only previously reached by Coors. Kenny Lofton should not homer in the first game of the season even though he's developing some late-career power.

The Boston/Tampa Bay game provided our first look at Rocco Baldelli in a major league uniform, though we saw him play a couple times at the AFL. We still don't believe he's ready to see much success in the majors. A .700 OPS would be a tremendous accomplishment for the kid, though the Devil Rays need Crawford and Baldelli in the outfield to compensate for moving Ben Grieve back to right field.

We suspect many critics will use Boston's bullpen blowup yesterday as evidence they need a shutdown reliever. As you might expect we completely disagree with that assessment, however we don't believe the Red Sox selected the best available bullpen based on the pitchers at Spring Training. Grady Little completely ignored the idea of using relievers for multiple innings when, after allowing the right-handed Ramiro Mendoza to face lefties Carl Crawford and Aubrey Huff, the Rays' best hitter, he pulled Mendoza for Alan Embree to face Travis Lee, another lefty. Considering Mendoza needed only 9 pitches to retire the top of the Rays' order, we see no obvious rationale for the 9th inning change to Embree, other than to perhaps give Embree the save opportunity in violation of everything the Red Sox preach. Mendoza's better for multiple innings and looked prepared to continue effectively for another inning, and further decisions such as this one should put Theo on the phone to Davey Johnson. Boston has every chance to win the Series this year, yet keeping the worst 2002 AL manager may be what keeps them from a ring for another season. The Red Sox manager should still win Manager of the Year with some intelligent lineup juggling, though I have some reservations as to the name we'll see engraved on that award.

Monday evening closed with a result that left many New Yorkers hoping "JETER INJURED" was an April Fools Day joke, but another headfirst slide left the Yankees' shortstop with a separated shoulder. Now New York faces at least a month if not a season without their anchor, and while we like Erick Almonte, his poor 2002 significantly reduced his long-term upside. He doesn't seem prepared for the majors, and since none of the premiere MLB shortstops will be available in trade due to the Yankees' lack of premium prospects, an extended injury will cost the Yankees at least five wins.

Perhaps their best option is to offer to pick up a significant contract to grab either a top defender or a decent hitter. Adding Rey Sanchez would solidify the infield, but we can't see the Mets making that deal even if New York offers Juan Rivera and will take Roger Cedeno or Jeromy Burnitz. San Diego lacks an obvious replacement for someone like Mark Loretta, although Loretta and Kevin Jarvis for Julio DePaula and a second prospect should intrigue Kevin Towers. Colorado would move Jose Hernandez for pitching if Juan Uribe was healthy, and they still might consider the deal. Milwaukee surely would deal Royce Clayton for Almonte and a pitching prospect. Someone like Shane Halter or Melvin Mora also offers a reasonable solution if the MRI indicates Jeter will only miss a month.

Any trade of Orlando Cabrera to the Yankees would further illustrate the farce of the Expos' situation, and after last year's problems with Colon and Floyd, we don't see Cabrera departing Montreal right now. Of course, a package of Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Erick Almonte would intrigue any rebuilding team, however Montreal rightfully believes they can post a .500+ record, and Cabrera probably furthers that goal more than adding another couple of youngsters.

The Yankees' problem is that no contender is likely to offer them a decent replacement since everyone sees the advantage of keeping a major hole in the New York middle infield. However, one other story from the weekend might provide an answer. New York finally reached an agreement with Cablevision to bring Yankees' games to nearly every home in their market, and the arrangement should provide another significant monetary boost to the Yankees' coffers. Given this new revenue stream, one idea intrigues us if New York faces three-to-six months without their future captain.

Kazuo Matsui of the Seibu Lions is expected to join an MLB team in 2004 after his Japanese contract expires following this season, however Yankee desperation can result in obscene profit potential for anyone lucky enough to be on the receiving end of a Brian Cashman call. New York can offer a potential replacement for Matsui in Enrique Wilson, or more realistically, work out a deal for a current free agent like Damion Easley to join the Lions. While Alex Cabrera remains the primary power threat on the Lions, Scott McClain, the other MLB refugee on the roster, is barely holding his starting spot. Easley represents a significant upgrade for the Lions over McClain, particularly in the power department, and current Lions' second baseman Hiroyuki Takagi even fielded over .4 balls a game more than Matsui last year despite playing a position that should receive less chances. Takagi could slide to short while Easley covers second, and while Easley wouldn't match Matsui's overall contribution numbers, Seibu's likely first place finish might not be ownership's primary motivation.

Seibu Department Stores Ltd. appears in need of any cash available as they recently entered into an agreement that provides nearly $2 billion in financial support to keep the department store chain in business. The Yankees' reserves don't extend to that limit, but nothing the Yankees pay to purchase a player from Seibu should count against their luxury tax numbers. If Jeter misses most of the year, they also should recoup several million in insurance on his salary. I don't believe $15-20 million is an unreasonable expenditure for the Yankees to add a second top Japanese player, thereby further expanding their brand into a market that largely seems ready to embrace more American baseball than just Ichiro's Mariners and Nomo's Dodgers.

New York can arrange for a competent replacement for Matsui and provide substantial financial compensation. A deal would make sense for both parties, especially since Seibu likely would lose Matsui at the end of the year under nearly any circumstances. While Matsui may need to be posted, the Yankees can easily out bid anyone to obtain him. At the end of this season, the Yankees should re-sign Matsui, likely to play third base, thereby both improving their infield defense and preventing top rivals like Seattle or Los Angeles from adding one of the best shortstops in the world.

The one potential hitch in this plan is also the one blemish on Opening Day. Toronto's marketing department placed an ad featuring a Yankee cap covered in bird droppings, a perfectly acceptable invective that they ruined by adding the words "Boo Matsui". Why boo Hideki Matsui? Why not boo ex-Jays Roger Clemens and Raul Mondesi? Why not boo the Yankees as a whole? This disgraceful racism should result in a formal MLB apology that includes the forced dismissal of Toronto Consumer Marketing Director Jim Bloom, who responded to criticism of the ad with "We respect the Yankee tradition and we know they've been the dominant team recently. With that comes a sense of rivalry. When the show comes to town, they have to expect us to use that."

We were disappointed when Toronto fans were basically silent through the first few batters in the lineup and then followed the prompting of the ad and booed Matsui. While we sat at home, we applauded when Hideki responded by singling home a run in his first MLB at-bat.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Use early-season events as fodder for any remaining drafts on your schedule. Try to steal Chad Fox for a buck, especially if you can reserve him the first week. Target other players with weak openers like Greg Maddux as potential bargains since some owners invariably undervalue players based on this practically non-existent sample size. Don't forget that all projections are full-season expectations, and the trends of the season mean you shouldn't prorate such statistics on a weekly or even a monthly basis.