Today's Fantasy Rx

While we've seen little evidence that the majority Spring Training performances possesses any value as prediction tools, we've also observed how impressive individual performances can precede, if not outright breakout seasons, then at least helpful Aprils and/or Mays. Established first-half players like Fernando Vina can accumulate half their annual value within a few weeks, and examining Spring Training PQA scores logically should provide us with an idea of which pitchers have displayed solid skills. Similarly, tracking Games Finished data gives us some insight into who teams believe warrants extra consideration in any discussion of either current or future battles to close.

Only two American League pitchers have dominated in three starts this spring, and Pedro's inclusion here should surprise no one; he looks ready to reestablish himself as the premiere pitcher in the game. I also wasn't even slightly shocked to see Ramon Ortiz's name show up at the top of the list since he should overtake Washburn as the Angels' top starter this year. You should consider yourself lucky to roster either pitcher in most leagues.

Four AL starters have dominated in two starts thus far, although all four also have experienced one disaster. Roy Halladay obviously belongs here as arguably the second best pitcher in the league after Pedro, however the other three pitchers comprise a more eclectic group. Jose Contreras suffered through three poor outings before suddenly mastering the opposition in his last two appearances. I don't see him breaking camp in the rotation due to Jeff Weaver's more impressive consistency, however Contreras should pitch at least 100 fairly valuable innings this year.

Although you should probably ignore most pitchers on Tampa Bay in 2003, Victor Zambrano intrigues me more than any other Devil Ray starter. In 11 starts at the end of last year, Zambrano managed at least a 2 PQA in each of them while posting a 3 or better in all but three of those appearances. I see no reason why he won't continue to experience marginal success in the rotation, and he merits rostering in any AL-only league.

Miguel Asencio of Kansas City, a Rule 5 pick from A-ball only a year ago, somehow not only managed to stay in the majors for a second year but will break camp as Kansas City's #3 starter. Unfortunately his 58:64 K:BB in 123.1 IP last season leaves little hope for much immediate improvement, and while normal improvement from a 22-year-old indicates he might not hurt you qualitatively this year, I don't see any immediate upside that suggest he merits drafting.

Only two relievers have posted 6 dominant outings among American Leaguers: Keith Foulke, who should amass more value than any other reliever this year, and Kelly Wunsch, who might not even break camp with the White Sox. However given Wunsch's normally solid skills and his apparent complete recovery from surgery two years ago, he definitely deserves a roster spot in AL-only leagues.

Mariano Rivera unsurprisingly holds the third best PQA numbers among AL relievers this spring, but he's followed by another interesting group of relievers. David Sanders, Tom Gordon, and Matt Ginter could combine with Wunsch to provide superb middle relief for the White Sox, though neither Sanders nor Ginter will break camp in Chicago unless they can somehow unseat Gary Glover or Rick White in the next week. Reynaldo Garcia similarly possesses little chance of going north with Texas, and he's so far back on the Rangers' depth right-handed depth chart that he's a rather risky pick under any circumstances.

Francisco Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jeff Tam are better picks given their track records and the outright dominance in 2002 of the former two pitchers. Tam isn't bad roster filler even if he possesses little upside. Unfortunately KRod will be overpriced in almost every league, especially since I don't see him closing any time soon. Hawkins has every chance of posting roughly comparable stats and won't cost nearly as much as Rodriguez.

Four more AL relievers merit mention since they've each dominated in four games and pitched decently in four more appearances. Franklyn German and Cliff Politte are the two obvious heir-apparent closers in the AL who should inherit the majority of save opportunities on their respective teams by the trading deadline, or certainly no later than 2003 for Politte if the Blue Jays keep Escobar due to potential Wild Card contention. Billy Koch should remain one of the top few AL closers for another year even if he won't maintain his 2002 value. Lastly, Jeremy Fikac, who I started touting last week, continues to pitch fairly decently and looks poised to amass several vultured wins as the primary Athletics' middle reliever.

MacDougal continues to hold the Spring Training lead among AL relievers in Games Finished as he saves another game yesterday for his 8th GF; Koch stayed right behind MacDougal at 7 GF. New York's Juan Acevedo is one of two AL relievers at 6 GF, and while I believe he'll stay with the Yankees at least until Rivera and Karsay look healthy, I expect New York will expore the possibility of swapping him for a prospect later in the summer. He essentially replaces Ramiro Mendoza in the bullpen and should approach double-digit value, and especially if you can keep players traded to the NL in your league, he merits serious consideration from owners looking for saves sleepers.

Former Yankees' closer-of-the-future Ben Ford, who won't even turn 28 until this August, somehow finished 6 games for the Twins. I know he's competing against a half-dozen solid relief prospects and shouldn't see the majors before summer, but he could emerge as a solid reliever if he ever adds consistent control to his decent dominance. Don't even draft him in deep Ultra leagues for now, however remember him for potential FAABing later in the year.

The three AL relievers with 5 GF represent another obvious round of sleepers, though I don't see many more pitchers deserving of overtly strong recommendations after this group. Danys Baez dominated batters upon his Major League debut as a reliever in 2001, and I see no reason why he couldn't emerge as an elite closer. A sub-3.00 ERA and 30+ saves seem like very realistic expectations, and he should be available fairly cheaply in many leagues this year.

Jeremy Hill of Kansas City no longer looks like a direct challenger to MacDougal, however Hill owns solid skills and should develop into a solid middle reliever this year. Considering spending a reserve pick here, especially if you want to protect an investment in MacDougal.

Finally, Tom Gordon possesses both great skills, a history of success at closer, and holds the primary set-up role for a team likely to win 90 games. I view rostering Gordon as essential for nearly any Koch owner, and not only should you receive a solid $5-10 of stats, but given Koch's increased workload in 2002, Gordon could save 10+ games. While I harbor some questions about his health, I see no problem in spending up to $5 or so on him in most leagues since only Politte and German seem overly likely to earn more than Gordon this year among AL pitchers beginning the year in middle relief.

Today's Fantasy Rx: While I've previously denigrated Mike MacDougal due to his often woeful command, his overall performance since converting to the bullpen last season has convinced me that not only will he effectively close now, but he'll emerge as a dominant reliever within the next two seasons once he develops more consistency. He's a solid buy both for 2003 and in almost any keeper league if you can secure him for under $20.