Today's Fantasy Rx

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Yesterday we determined that the best gambles for saves in Boston were Robert Person and Chad Fox; Mike MacDougal and Ryan Bukvich should receive the majority of chances in Kansas City.

Today I'll run down the remaining teams with serious saves' questions prior to the posting of our first pitcher projections tomorrow.

Montreal

Scott Stewart should remain the primary saves' option here when he completes his recovery from November elbow surgery, however at least 25 save opportunities should be available for right-handed relievers if Frank Robinson continues employing co-closers. Zach Day should join Vazquez, El Duque, Ohka, and Armas in the rotation, leaving a bullpen of Stewart, Joey Eischen, and four-to-five relievers from a group that includes Britt Reames, T.J. Tucker, Jim Brower, Dan Smith, Tim Drew, Dicky Gonzalez, Rocky Biddle, Rule 5 pick Luis Ayala, and NRI Eric Knott. Knott only will break camp in the majors if either Stewart or Eischen needs to open the year on the DL.

Reames seems nearly assured of remaining on the team, and Tucker, Brower, and Smith all look likely to return based on their places on the team a year ago. However Ayala has dominated this spring, and I expect the Expos to keep him as their 12th pitcher. Dicky Gonzalez also has pitched very effectively and Tim Drew not only is displaying respectable command but is out of options. If Sun-Woo Kim doesn't earn a rotation slot, he'll receive some consideration for the bullpen.

At this point you should plan on Reames, Brower, Smith, Drew, and Ayala to break camp, however a strong push from Tucker could allow him to retain his spot over any of the latter four relievers listed here.

While Reames seems the best candidate for saves based on his career 92:35 K:BB in 80.2 IP with 85 H and 7 HR out of the bullpen, I'm worried by both his 11:12 K:BB in 24 IP for Estrellas of the Dominican Winter League and his 12:7 K:BB in 12 IP with 6 H and 1 HR allowed this spring. Of course he's displaying the necessary dominance in Florida to secure a short relief job, and he remains the best gamble here for the moment.

Jim Brower has allowed 12 hits in 9 IP, but he's also running a 10:0 K:BB. Plus, he managed a 57:32 K:BB in 80 IP with 88 H and 7 HR between Cincinnati and Montreal last year, so he likely could pitch effectively as a closer. Unfortunately I don't see upside here similar to that of Reames, and I wouldn't target Brower unless he starts finishing games this spring.

Smith and Ayala currently share the lead in Spring Training games finished for Montreal at 3. With a 6:3 K:BB in 7.1 IP with 8 H and 1 HR, Smith looks prepared to build on a 2002 season where he converted to relief upon his promotion to Montreal, subsequently posting a 34:21 K:BB in 47 IP over 33 G with 34 H and 6 HR. Of course he owns no history of either dominance or consistent control, so though he could see some save opps, I don't view him as a logical choice.

Ayala is the one truly intriguing option here. A 4:0 K:BB in 7 IP with 3 H and a 0.00 ERA demonstrates how he's been the most consistent reliever in camp, and his 444333 PQS line suggests promising upside. As a reliever for Culiacan of the Mexican Winter League, he also compiled a 26:8 K:BB in 31 IP with 34 and 0 HR allowed, so his only apparent downside is a lack of experience in the affiliated minors. Based on Ayala's history as a closer in the Mexican League, I now see a decent possibility he might reach a dozen saves this year if given the opportunity, and I no longer question this Rule 5 pick by Montreal.

I don't see Kim or Gonzalez seeing much time in the majors for the Expos, so the remaining saves' candidate among right-handed relievers is Tim Drew. He owns a 5:2 K:BB in 9.1 IP with 11 H and 0 HR this spring, and his 243223 PQA line indicates some measure of consistency. Unfortunately Drew never relieved in a single professional game in the minors, and in his 8 games out of the bullpen over the last two years, he's managed a meager 6:7 K:BB in 19.2 IP with 25 H and 2 HR allowed. Drew also has more long-term upside as a starter, so while I think he could close effectively at some point, he's not worth a gamble by fantasy owners at this time.

When looking for save sleepers in Montreal, see if you can get Reames in Dollar Days or a reserve round, and only consider rostering Ayala in leagues with several reserve rounds.

San Diego

While we've discussed Jay Witasick and Jaret Wright in the past as possible closer options in San Diego, the current health problems of both pitchers. Both pitchers seem likely to remain in relief roles when they return, and though Clay Condrey possesses intriguing upside, he should stay in a middle or long relief role for the moment.

We no longer see any relevant competition for Brandon Villafuerte as the Padres' closer, and reports yesterday indicated that San Diego is no longer even considering adding a short reliever from outside the organization. Villafuerte's only managed a 5:4 K:BB in 9 IP this spring, but he's also allowed only 2 hits and no earned runs while registering a 42244224 PQA log. In 10 IP for Hermosillo of the Mexican Winter League, he compiled a 9:6 K:BB in 10 IP with 11 H and 1 HR. Yet while his performance over the last couple months isn't overly impressive, he dominated at both AAA Portland(PCL) and San Diego in 2002, even compiling a 25:12 K:BB in 32 IP with 29 H, 2 HR, and a 53-23 G-F in the majors. Feel free to bid at least into the high single digits since we'll project him to save around two-dozen games with helpful qualitative marks.

Tampa Bay

The Devil Rays seem likely to carry 12 pitchers, featuring a starting staff of Joe Kennedy, Victor Zambrano, Nick Bierbrodt, Jim Parque, and either Steve Parris, Dewon Brazelton, or Jorge Sosa. Parris likely holds an edge on the youngsters, so expect Brazelton and Sosa to return to AAA.

Among the expected seven relievers, Jesus Colome, Lance Carter, Travis Harper, and Bob Wells should break camp in the majors, along with at least Bobby Seay or Ced Bowers, if not both left-handers. Travis Phelps, Delvin James, Seth McClung, John Frascatore, and Brandon Backe comprise the likely competition for the last one or two spots on the staff, and right now McClung and both left-handers look like the favorites to join the primary three right-handers.

However Tampa's indicated a desire to choose a single closer, and only Colome and Carter currently remain in that competition. We favored Carter heading into last off-season based on his solid minor league history, as well as the 14:5 K:BB in 20 IP with 15 H and 2 HR he compiled at the end of 2002. This spring he's posted a 5:3 K:BB in 9 IP with 5 H and 0 HR, but he's only finished one game and has pitched multiple innings at times.

Colome seems likely to close for much of the season for several reasons. While his poor control in the majors over the past two seasons suggests he needs more minor league time, he also demonstrated consistent improvement during his two AAA stints. Tampa immediately identified Colome as their probable closer-of-the-future almost immediately after acquiring him from Oakland for Jim Mecir and Todd Belitz at the 2000 trade deadline. Like Mike MacDougal's Colome has significant experience at the upper levels of his organization and possesses traditional closer's tools. This winter he compiled a 21:9 K:BB in 27 IP with 33 H and 0 HR for Estrellas of the Dominican Winter League, and he's allowed only one hit and no runs this spring while posting a 7:2 K:BB in 6 IP. Even his 343344 PQA log easily leads Tampa's relievers.

Not only should Colome reach 25+ saves in 2003 but he also should remain as Tampa's closer for the indefinite future. Owners who need saves in keeper leagues definitely should target him, especially if he's obtainable for under $10, and while you might suffer mild qualitative damage in the short term, his skills finally seem to be coalescing with his tools, making him a solid acquisition in nearly any leagues.

The Cubs and Cardinals also could need closers at least for a brief period due to the respective health problems of Antonio Alfonseca and Jason Isringhausen. In Chicago, target Kyle Farnsworth up to at least a few bucks, and Rod Beck also could see several saves' opportunities; he's always owned good skills and reported in great shape. Mike Crudale's struggles and likely demotion leave the Cardinals without an obvious Izzy replacement, though a lefty like Steve Kline will see some save opps. The four right-handers with the most appearances this spring for St. Louis, along with their PQA scores, are Joey Hamilton(4232341), Al Levine(1330314), Gabe Molina(32332122), and Russ Springer(no PQA available since the Spring Training scorers keep confusing Russ and Dennis in the box scores). Hamilton not only offers the most experience, a seemingly vital component for most LaRussa/Duncan pitchers, but he's displaying the best consistency and dominance. We've already selected him in one league, and unless Dustin Hermanson emerges as a more viable option thanks to his closing experience, we believe Hamilton offers the best fantasy upside among Cardinals' right-handers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: To briefly recap our discussion from earlier in the week, we find the following closers reasonably likely to finish this season with a new team, although each should still accumulate 20+ saves: Toronto's Kelvim Escobar, Texas' Ugueth Urbina, Florida's Braden Looper, New York's Armando Benitez, Pittburgh's Mike Williams, and Colorado's Jose Jimenez. The likely replacements for each team on their respective current rosters are Cliff Politte in Toronto, Francisco Cordero or Jeff Zimmerman in Texas, Tim Spooneybarger or Blaine Neal in Florida, Scott Strickland on the Mets, Duaner Sanchez in Pittsburgh, and either Todd Jones or Elio Serrano in Colorado. Any of these set-up men would make excellent Dollar Days picks in keeper leagues, and a couple of them should earn double-digit value this year.