Today's Fantasy Rx

Due to the unfortunate division of our attention this week between baseball and international events, we will not have our pitcher projections posted prior to the weekend. However anyone drafting this weekend should feel free to e-mail us if you have questions regarding pitchers or any draft-related subject since we've already completed much of our analysis.

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About a sixth of Major League teams still haven't officially selected a primary saves' candidate, so in anticipation of identifying some intriguing sleepers prior to drafts this weekend, I decided to spend a day reviewing these teams.

Boston

Everyone's likely familiar with Boston's plan not to choose a single closer and instead actually attempt to apply some of Bill James' theories regarding maximizing reliever effectiveness. However we firmly believe the Red Sox will settle on a closer by mid-summer since we interpret James' theories to mean that teams should employ their better pitchers in high-leverage situations, which doesn't preclude keeping one of your worst pitchers to finish games with three-run leads.

The obvious candidates for saves here are Alan Embree, Ramiro Mendoza, Bobby Howry, and Mike Timlin. We don't see much upside in either of the latter two pitchers, although Embree and Mendoza should approach double-digit value even if they don't save more than 5-10 games a piece.

Two other pitchers likely to break camp in Boston should see a much larger opportunity to garner a couple dozen saves. We've hyped Chad Fox for much of the winter, and we've seen nothing this spring to dissuade us from recommending him. His Spring Training PQA line is 4433423, he owns a career strikeout rate of 10.0 K/9, and while his 4.3 BB/9 is troubling, he doesn't normally allow enough hits to significantly hurt your WHIP. Unfortunately he doesn't appear guaranteed a job, and his spotty health history, which makes him ideally suited for one-inning outings, also could flare at any time.

Recent reports indicate that Robert Person will break camp with the Red Sox, and once healthy, I see no reason why he couldn't see significant success in a relief role. He's always struggled with his control yet owns a career 7.7 K/9 despite starting over two-thirds of his games. Fenway should help cut down on his normal homer problems, and as a former de factor #1 starter for the Phillies, he certainly should possess the mindset necessary to close.

The four pitchers generally identified as saves' candidates all seem subject to overbidding, and only Embree and possibly Mendoza possess the track record to merit more than a Dollar Days' flyer. Targeting Fox or Person late in the draft could earn you a nice profit, and Person only has a slight edge since he's slightly more likely to spend all year in the majors.

Kansas City

Jason Grimsley is the only pitcher with the experience normally desired to close, however he's remaining in middle relief, and while we think Albie Lopez could succeed in the role, he's started all spring. Kris Wilson probably has a better chance at the job than these other two veterans, but we don't envision him receiving the necessary opportunity.

The current pecking order for Royals' saves seems to be Mike MacDougal(5 GF; 43224314 PQA), Jeremy Hill(5 GF; 333422 PQA), Ryan Bukvich(3 GF; 32242443 PQA, and Rule 5 pick D.J. Carrasco(2 GF; 433233 PQA), although we don't view Carrasco as a viable option.

I've expressed serious reservations about MacDougal in the past, but he apparently possesses the Royals' confidence and the dominance necessary to hold the role despite persistent control problems. He converted to relief late last year, and posted a 20:12 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 11 G with 8 H and 1 HR between A+ Wilmington(Car) and Kansas City. For Mayaguez of the Puerto Rican Winter League, he compiled a 2.39 ERA and 10 Saves on a 29:12 K:BB in 26.1 IP with 17 H and 1 HR.

Of course, he's running an 8:8 K:BB in 7.1 IP with 7 H, 2 HBP, and a wild pitch this spring, so we know his control problems aren't fixed. However Kansas City wants him to close, and as long as he can strike out a batter an inning and keep his ERA below 6.00, he should hold the role.

Hill's 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP with 8 H this spring isn't bad, however he's held back to some extent since he only converted to pitcher in 2001. While his minor league command numbers are solid, he only managed a 7:8 K:BB in 9.1 IP in Kansas City last year, and for Gigantes of the Dominican Winter League, he posted a poor 18:20 K:BB in 20.2 IP with 16 H. MacDougal's greater dominance likely indicates more immediate upside, especially since he's pitched nearly 200 innings at AAA while Hill skipped from AA Wichita(TL) to the majors last September.

The only serious competition for MacDougal here is Ryan Bukvich, who offers similar skills to MacDougal but has more experience than Hill. He's outpitching his competitors this spring with a 10:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP while only allowing 3 hits, and while he didn't display much control for Aguilas of the Dominican Winter League by posting a 9:8 K:BB, he also allowed only 3 hits in 10 IP this winter.

MacDougal likely will break camp as the closer, but Bukvich is a nice sleeper who looks prepared to contribute to fantasy teams even in a middle relief role.

Tomorrow I'll discuss the closer situations on Montreal, San Diego, and Tampa Bay, as well as examining the primary back-ups for Jason Isringhausen and Antonio Alfonseca.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We don't see serious closer questions on any other team besides the teams discussed above and those scheduled for tomorrow's article. Among teams with any uncertainty in the role, we expect the following pitchers to accumulate no less than 20 saves this year barring injury: Danys Baez in Cleveland, Matt Anderson in Detroit, Braden Looper in Florida, Scott Williamson in Cincinnati, Mike DeJean in Milwaukee, and Matt Mantei in Arizona.