Today's Fantasy Rx

While I'm no longer specifically under the weather, I was unable to finish the NL batter projections to our satisfaction. We expect them to be available here tomorrow.

Over 900 pitchers received invitations to Spring Training this year due to their place on the 40-man roster, their contract as a minor league free agent, or as a reward for prospects impressing organizational management due to their performance in recent years. Through yesterday, 836 of these pitchers actually have appeared in Major League Spring Training games.

While we've kept track of games finished data for years to look at possible closers who pitch exactly one inning at the end of games, we decided to track PQA data this spring. I evaluated both relievers and any starter completing five innings or more under our new PQA method, PQA qualifications, introduced this January. The one necessary change was that I only evaluated pitchers on a 4-point scale since we were unable to find a consistent source of G-F data in box scores, so I simply removed G-F from consideration. However since pitchers should be able to dominate opponents during the spring, especially younger batters in "B" games, I saw no reason to drop the DOM qualification to a PQA of 3.

The other change we felt necessary was to treat starters who pitch less than five innings as relievers, and therefore judge them by relief standards. Even if someone pitches 4.2 IP with 10 ER, an appearance in which he likely would have reached 5 IP if he'd pitched decently, we still see more value in evaluating these pitchers under the stricter standards of relievers(a strikeout per inning and no walks or homers allowed).

Due to the limited number of innings compiled by even the most prolific pitchers during Spring Training, we're also ignoring the skill qualifications for a 1 score, and instead focusing on potential ax pitchers.

As we expected, several pitchers emerged as likely 2003 contributors based on their performances through the first three weeks of Spring Training.

Twenty-six pitchers currently hold ax ratings. Billy Wagner, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Julio, Billy Koch, Keith Foulke, and John Smoltz should leave Spring Training as six of perhaps the best 10 closer to own in the game. However the remainder of this list includes a rather surprising group of pitchers.

Kelly Wunsch, Aaron Fultz, Damaso Marte, and Mike Bynum should break camp as left-handed relievers, and the presence of both Wunsch and Marte demonstrates the potential dominance of the White Sox's bullpen. Fultz is a risky selection due to the downside of pitching in Arlington, however Bynum looks like an interesting sleeper, especially if he wins the 5th starter's job for the Padres.

Jeremy Fikac, Kyle Farnsworth, Tom Gordon, Felix Rodriguez, and Kevin Gryboski respectively are either their team's primary or secondary right-handed set-up men, and while Gryboski didn't display much command last year, the other four are superb picks. Farnsworth in particular could emerge as the Cubs' closer anytime this season.

Montreal should keep Rule 5 pick Luis Ayala, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him rack a half-dozen saves this year despite his unimpressive minor league history. Corey Thurman, Toronto's Rule 5 pick from a year ago, is competing with Justin Miller and Doug Linton to be Toronto's 12th pitcher. I don't plan on rostering either player this spring, but I like the long-term potential of both pitchers.

Three other pitchers here already own 40-man roster spots: Reynaldo Garcia of the Rangers, Frank Castillo of the Red Sox, and David Sanders of the White Sox. Castillo doesn't offer much upside as Boston's 6th starter and long reliever, and Sanders shouldn't see much Major League time until September. However Garcia is one of only three pitchers to compile a 4444 PQA string at any time this spring, and if you're looking for long-term saves' gambles in a deep Ultra league, consider spending a low pick on Garcia as Francisco Cordero's only likely competitor in Texas.

While Garcia and Jeremy Fikac managed a 4444 string this spring, the third pitcher that joined them surprised me to a far greater extent. Dan Wheeler, who spent 2002 at AAA Richmond(IL) after the Devil Rays released him in 2001, is in camp with the Mets. He owns career minor league ratios of 6.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, and though his 6.43 career Major League ERA is unimpressive, his 7.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 marks in the majors are fairly solid. His major problem is an elevated homer rate, and I expect Shea to help him here. He could earn a few bucks if the Mets keep him over some of their younger arms.

Five other pitchers qualified for an ax but aren't on 40-man rosters. Mike Jackson should break camp with Arizona, although the downside of pitching in Phoenix makes him too risky to own. Three more pitchers possess only the slightest chance to see the majors before summer, and while the Mets' Pedro Feliciano, the Pirates' Nelson Figueroa, and the Giants' Luis Estrella looked great this spring, each faces too much competition to contribute in the near future.

The final pitcher to earn an ax score through the first few weeks of Spring Training is Jason Shiell of Boston. Over a third of the 30 pitchers in Red Sox camp have been cut, and only one of their two Rule 5 picks will make the team. We know Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Fossum, and Burkett likely will start, and Embree, Fox, Howry, Mendoza, Timlin, and one Rule 5 pick are virtually guaranteed roster spots. Even if Boston carries a 12th pitcher as expected, Frank Castillo holds an edge on Ryan Rupe for job. So Shiell, at best, is competing with Hector Almonte, Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Lyon, Robert Person, and Steve Woodard for the right to be the first promoted pitcher from Pawtucket in case of injury. Shiell posted a 2.78 ERA on a 74:29 K:BB in 74 IP at AAA Portland(PCL) last year and certainly merits a long look in the majors, but since he's not arguably better than Tom Davey, Justin Kaye, or Andy Shibilo, all already cut from the spring roster, Shiell will be lucky to see a half-dozen Major League innings this year. He's a interesting sleeper, but there's simply no roster room for him to contribute.

Forty-three pitchers have pitched exactly 1 IP to finish at least three different spring games, a list that includes many players discussed above. Eleven of the forty-three have finished at least four games, and another half-dozen have finished at least five games. However only one pitcher has finished six games through the first half of Spring Training, and based on his situation, I wouldn't be surprised if he saved a dozen games this year.

Arizona's Mike Koplove should break camp as the primary set-up guy for the Diamondbacks. The rotation of Randy, Schilling, Dessens, Patterson, and Kim looks set. Mantei will close, Miguel Batista returns to long relief, and Mike Myers and Greg Swindell return as the primary left-handers. As Arizona wants to carry at least on veteran right-hander, Mike Jackson has outpitched his competition to earn a job, and while Eddie Oropesa or Ron Villone could contribute as a third lefty, I don't see them as likely options.

Koplove's only real competition is Bret Prinz, and Koplove displayed great skills and earned an ax score by spending nearly all of 2002 in the majors' Prinz didn't even demonstrate a similar level of effectiveness before he spent all summer at AAA Tucson. Both pitchers appeared in the same game four times this spring, and each time Koplove finished the game immediately after Prinz pitched an inning. So if Mantei breaks down as nearly everyone seems to expect, I expect Koplove to receive most of Arizona's save opportunities based on both his effectiveness last season and his performance this spring. Consider him a definite sleeper worthy of a Dollar Days selection in any NL-only draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: One of the most dominant relievers this spring is Tom Gordon, who we expected to land with Kansas City or Tampa Bay as their closer. Instead he joined the White Sox as Billy Koch's back-up, and given our concern about Koch's health after his workload a year ago, we strongly recommend you roster Gordon if you draft Koch. Gordon still possesses the skills necessary to close, and while he's always a risk to miss time due to injury, he should contribute at least $1 of value for every month he's active even as only a middle reliever.