Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Tuesday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting catchers, shortstops, and second basemen.

Please refer to yesterday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting third basemen, first basemen, and outfielders.

Last season 605 pitchers took the mound, with 317 first appearing in the NL and 288 hurlers first appearing for AL teams, a more appropriate difference between the leagues given the extra two NL teams than the six position players that separated the two leagues.

AL Pitchers

As always, pitchers in both leagues provide the greatest source of both profit and loss. However we're seeing some pitcher stratification in the AL that doesn't appear present in the NL.

The key to these increasingly stable value levels involves a greater understanding of the risk of injury and the ways in which pitchers injure themselves. Combined with stability in the standings, there's little reason not expect no less than two starters on Oakland, Boston, New York, Anaheim, and the White Sox to win at least 15 games due to league-leading offenses fielded by these franchises. A win in standard AL leagues last year was worth around $.33, so as long as we can find starters on these teams able to contribute about $15 in strikeouts and/or the qualitative categories, there's little reason not to place a $20 bid on a skilled AL starter.

After securing one elite starter, you can comfortably target one highly-skilled pitcher for around $5. The best place to find these pitchers remains the starting rotations of the likely playoff contenders, so Casey Fossum, Dan Wright, Kyle Lohse, John Lackey, and Ted Lilly look like a good group here. However if you can grab a solid established starter for under $15, you easily can spend $10 or so here, potentially placing you in contention for Tim Wakefield, Jeff Weaver, David Wells, or Ramon Ortiz.

You normally can acquire a couple of decent starters for only a couple bucks, so you probably should plan to spend a total of around $30 for four starting pitchers in AL leagues.

Skipping down to closers, the injury or role questions surrounding the majority of AL closers makes the majority of these players poor fantasy options. Keith Foulke is our obvious favorite, however you can remain quite competitive without spending the $30+ necessary to acquire him in most leagues.

Wait for the bidding to halt below $15 on any established closer and them pounce at the opportunity. You'll likely grab Matt Anderson or maybe Jorge Julio at those prices, but you may get lucky and see someone like Danys Baez or Kelvim Escobar fall to that level.

You also want to target at least one of the relievers likely to begin closing by the end of the year. Franklyn German and Cliff Politte are solid targets here given the likelihood of Matt Anderson and Kelvim Escobar switching franchises during the year. J.C. Romero also could close if Minnesota falls out of the race in the summer due to injuries

With your other three pitching slots, you should feel comfortable waiting until the end of the draft and then targeting players for a couple bucks who won't hurt thanks to their solid skills and could find themselves in more significant roles during the season. These are the pitchers you want to find through our LPR rankings and who hopefully managed at least an ax score last season, if not a 1ax or better.

If you're looking for the best immediate upside, target Chad Fox in Boston, Jesus Colome in Tampa Bay, and Jeremy Hill in Kansas City. These pitchers likely need a change in organizational mindset to accumulate more than a half-dozen saves, however Hill in particular has shared time as closer with Mike MacDougal this spring and is the likely alternative for the Royals. Lance Carter and Travis Harper are more logical current choices than the inconsistent Colome, however Colome's long-term future is at closer, and given Lou Piniella's intent to shove unprepared youngsters into significant roles, Colome could begin closing by May.

NL Pitchers

While the American League's standings stability makes drafting a top starter a reasonable idea given the high likelihood of finishing at least respectably in wins and strikeouts while helping your qualitative numbers, we expect far more variance in this year's NL final standings. Only the Cardinals seem likely to repeat as division champs to us, and Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and potentially the Cubs could see their wins significantly increase. However even the worst NL teams own several interesting pitchers, so NL-only owners possess much more flexibility in allocating pitching dollars than their AL-only counterparts.

The best strategy seems to involved spreading $30 among three starters, and then spending another $5 on a fourth. I'd only deviate from this plan to pick up an emerging stud like Roy Oswalt, Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, or Kerry Wood if bidding stalls below $20. However results from past years suggest spreading the risk in the NL offers a much higher chance at earning significant profits.

Recent research, combined with our existing methodology of target pitchers, suggests you should see little trouble with targeting youngsters between 24-28 to form the core of your staff. These pitchers offer both the greatest upside and normally a reduced injury risk, especially compared to their younger competitors.

Look for pitchers like Vincente Padilla, A.J.Burnett, Matt Morris, Matt Clement, Wade Miller, and Brian Lawrence to form the core of your staff. Drafting someone like Tomo Ohka, Damian Moss, Russ Ortiz, or Kip Wells also wouldn't hurt, especially if you can snag them for under $10.

Your best place to find high-upside NL starting pitchers is the $4-9 range. Unfortunately I only expect Ben Sheets, Tony Armas, and John Patterson likely to attain much profit among pitchers likely to cost this much this year. Of course someone like Moss easily could slip to single digits, and any rookie starter that breaks camp with San Francisco merits your attention, particularly the 24-year-old Kurt Ainsworth.

Two other starters that merit attention, particularly in 5x5 leagues, are Brandon Duckworth and Carlos Zambrano. Though we're not sure if they'll provide much qualitative help, both should amass numerous strikeouts thanks to their consistently solid dominance.

The NL closer situation also offers some great bargains, so you should have no problem with limiting your total expenditure on closer-type relievers to $20. Jose Jimenez, Antonio Alfonseca, Scott Williamson, and Braden Looper all look prepared to succeed for much of the seasons, and I'll be shocked if all four go for more than $15 in almost any league. Even Mike DeJean should finish with a value in the teens as while he doesn't offer much upside, he's not a bad choice to finish three-run wins.

Of course Jimenez and Alfonseca look like trade bait to me, and Mike Williams also should depart Pittsburgh later this year. The top replacements respectively are Todd Jones, Kyle Farnsworth, and Duaner Sanchez, and Farnsworth in particular looked primed to succeed.

The most intriguing pitcher likely to enter a closer's role at some point this year is Rod Beck. We caught a Cubs' game on WGN during our first non-email draft of the year last weekend, and we thought the Cubs had acquired the 6'4", 230 Rick White. Instead, Beck, listed at 6'1", 235 when he last closed in Chicago, impressed us with both his pitching and new physique, so we selected him at the end of the draft since he's always displayed the skills necessary to close games. If the Cubs keep Joe Borowski or Juan Cruz as their 11th pitcher as expected, Beck has the right to seek employment elsewhere, and he certainly deserves the chance to close somewhere like Montreal, San Diego, Kansas City, or Tampa Bay.

Montreal may not settle on one closer unless they can grab someone like Beck, however San Diego at least has two capable alternatives. We though Jaret Wright might figure into the saves' mix, but we now clearly see that Jay Witasick and Brandon Villafuerte are the primary candidates, and Villafuerte owns a definite edge thanks to pitching in more games this spring than Witasick, finishing more games, and showing more effectiveness. He's a worthy target near $5 in any league.

Thanks to the three great California's pitchers parks, as well as the pitcher-friendly confines in Chicago, New York, Florida, and Philadelphia, the NL offers far better opportunities for set-up men that won't you than the American League. If you can't find either some of the pitchers listed above or any right-handed set-up men with good strikeout rates and control numbers for buck or two, look instead at left-handed specialists with similar skills. Scott Sauerbeck and Ray King in particular belong on active rosters in any standard NL league due to their skill consistency and extremely limited downside.

We begin releasing our 2003 projections tomorrow by posting our AL rookie rankings in three different lists for different types of leagues.

Today's Fantasy Rx:

To combine my summaries from the last few days, we've included potential draft strategies for owners in AL or NL-only leagues. While this is a loose variation on the LIMA plan, we don't see a real need to spend more than $50 on pitching in most leagues this year, and allocating $30 to saves seems completely unnecessary to me.

Note: We've only allocated about $240 of value in each league, which leaves about $15-20 available in standard league. No two owners believe in approaching a draft in exactly the same way, and no two leagues operate in the same fashion, so I wanted to give you the means to customize these lists. Please spend that extra cap space wherever you believe you can gain the greatest advantage in your league, whether just by increasing four positions by $5, or plowing all $20 into a superstar first baseman, outfielder, top starter, or even a second closer.

Rotohelp recommended 2003 AL-only draft strategy
Pos	$	Primary targets
C	3-4	R.Hernandez, E.Diaz, B.Molina
C	1-3	M.Johnson, Mirabelli, Greene, B. Davis
1B	20	Olerud, Huff, Fullmer, Je.Giambi
3B	15	Hinske, T.Batista, Koskie, Spiezio, Crede
CR	10	Mientkiewicz, Hatteberg, Randa, Cirillo
2B	10	Hairston, Rivas, Ellis, B.Phillips, D.Jimenez
SS	30	Nomar, Jeter, Eckstein, Tejada
MI	5	Easley, Febles, M.Young, W.Harris
OF	35	M.Ordonez, M.Ramirez, Damon, Beltran
OF	25	C.Lee, Matsui, M.Cameron, Winn, Salmon
OF	15	V.Wells, Higginson, C.Everett Mondesi
OF	5	HR/RBI: R.White, Cust, M.Cordova, Daubach
OF	5	SB: E.Owens, A.Torres, Glanville, Ad.Brown
UT	10	Anyone from above that emerges as a sleeper
	
SP	15-20	Halladay, Mulder, Mussina, Lidle
SP	5-10	Wakefield, J.Weaver, Ra.Ortiz, D.Wells
SP	2-3	Fossum, Lilly, Lackey, D.Wright
SP	2-3	Lohse, Callaway, Burkett, R.Franklin
P	1-2	Fox, Colome, J.Hill, L.Hawkins
P	1-2	Acevedo, Bradford, Rincon, T.Gordon
P	1-2	J.Nelson, Weber, Fikac, Rupe
R	1-5	Politte, F.German, J.C.Romero, Karsay
CL	10-15	M.Anderson, Julio, D.Baez, K.Escobar

	15-20	Flex dollars to be determined as you wish

Rotohelp recommended 2003 NL-only draft strategy
Pos	$	Primary targets
C	7-9	Marrero, C.Johnson, Barrett
C	1-3	Schneider, Pratt, Redmond, Zaun
1B	15	T.Martinez, McGriff, Overbay, R.Simon, 
3B	20	E.Alfonzo, A.Ramirez, Beltre, Lowell, 
CR	5	Fick, Da.Bell, B.Larson, Counsell, Stynes
2B	25	Vidro, Durham, L.Castillo, E.Young, Spivey
SS	20	J.Hernandez, O.Cabrera, Aurilia, Furcal
MIF	5	F.Lopez, B.Hill, P.Ozuna, M.Giles, Thurston
OF	35	Vlad, Bonds, Abreu, B.Giles, C.Jones, Pujols
OF	25	P.Wilson, Edmonds, L.Gonzalez, Burrell
OF	15	Kearns, Dunn, Encarnacion, Pierre, Patterson
OF	5	HR/RBI: Kapler, T.O'Leary, D.Ward
OF	5	SB: R.Taylor, B.L.Hunter, Benard
UT	5	Anyone from above that emerges as a sleeper

SP	9-12	Oswalt, Millwood, Wolf, Wood, Burnett
SP	9-12	Burnett, Morris, Clement, W.Miller,
SP	9-12	B.Lawrence, Ohka, Moss, Ra.Ortiz, K.Wells
SP	3-5	Sheets, Armas, J.Patterson, Ainsworth/Foppert
P	1-2	Duckworth, C.Zambrano, Middlebrook
P	1-2	L.Vizcaino, F.Rodriguez, Koplove, Sauerbeck
P	1-2	R.Beck, Shuey, Quantrill, Ro.Hernandez, King
R	1-5	Farnsworth, D.Sanchez, T.Jones, Villafeurte
CL	10-15	J.Jimenez, Alfonseca, Williamson, Looper

	15-20	Flex dollars to be determined as you wish