Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to yesterday's article for discussion of developing league trends in evaluating and selecting catchers, shortstops, and second basemen.

AL Third Basemen

Neither Eric Chavez or Troy Glaus appears likely to step from star to $30 superstar this year based on their recent skill trends, so I see no need to pay the necessary sum to roster either player. I see tremendous depth in AL third basemen from the lowing veterans like Robin Ventura and Dean Palmer to young studs like Joe Crede and the Texas Twosome, as well as minor league veterans like Casey Blake, who seems ready to prove he belongs in the majors. Blake may be the only sleeper at this position, and I'll be rather shocked if a majority of AL starting third baseman finish within $3 of $15. I see little reason not to obtain the first of these players available for anything below the teens, and only Ventura, Blake, Palmer, and perhaps Randa and Cirillo don't merit that value level of interest.

NL Third Basemen

The situation at third base in the NL remains extremely unstable as no less than six teams remain without an undisputed starter at 3B. Competition rages in Atlanta with Mark DeRosa challenging Vinny Castilla, Houston with Morgan Ensberg opposing Geoff Blum, Milwaukee with Wes Helms and Keith Ginter fighting to start, and Colorado, where Greg Norton and Chris Stynes may share the job until Juan Uribe's summer return pushes Jose Hernandez to the corner. We also aren't convinced that Ty Wigginton in New York or Mark Bellhorn in Chicago will enter the season as starters, and Arizona's infield situation remains murky with Craig Counsell likely playing ever day and spelling Matt Williams more than Junior Spivey or Tony Womack. Fortunately we see some obvious advantages to the current situation, especially since only Scott Rolen seems to generate much buzz among third basemen at drafts. I see no problem in trolling for a potential stud like Brandon Larson or Sean Burroughs, however the values here rest with young veterans Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Lowell. You should be able to obtain one of the latter three players for the same $12-15 needed for a comparable AL 3B, and any of them could blow right past $20 with a little luck.

AL First Basemen

American League first basemen break down into very distinct tiers. Jason Giambi and Mike Sweeney easily pace the field, and Carlos Delgado and Rafael Palmeiro are a step down due to BA questions. John Olerud and Paul Konerko follow the top four, and then we see a nice mix of players lacking an established position and playing time like Aubrey Huff and Travis Hafner. Even likely DHs like Brad Fullmer, Jeremy Giambi, and Frank Thomas all offer $30 upside. With developing veterans such as Doug Mientkiewicz, Scott Hatteberg, and Scott Spiezio also all likely to improve upon their 2002 performances, you likely can obtain solid talent here without spending for an elite player. Thanks to the 1B/DH qualifiers, the depth of this position offers numerous advantages, leaving you little reason to overpay for anyone and ample incentive to grab the first reasonably-priced player in the $15-20 range who still possesses promising potential.

NL First Basemen

Not only can't you count on any NL first baseman aside from Jim Thome to rack 100+ RBI, but I wouldn't be shocked if less than half of the starters here managed even 90 RBI. I'm concerned about the relatively recent injuries of Todd Helton, Jeff Bagwell, and Sean Casey, and the weakened lineups of their respective teams make Derrek Lee, Richie Sexson, and Ryan Klesko poor gambles. The only bargains here may be likely NL Rookie of the Year Lyle Overbay and both Randall Simon and Kevin Young at 1B. Neither of the latter players should cost more than a few bucks, and since both will benefit from entering a platoon, they could combine for $25+ if you're willing to spend the time platooning in leagues with liberal transaction rules. Given the depth and flexibility present in the outfield, as well as the need to secure a capable player in the $15 range at the other three infield positions, I don't believe you should spend much more than $12-15 here as I just don't see much upside at this position. A Tino Martinez or Fred McGriff may be your best solution here since either player could be available could fall to a late round and single-digit bids due to the general perception of their age-related decline in skills.

MLB Outfielders

The overall depth in outfielders on every team makes this position essentially complementary to the eight infielders in standard leagues. Once you've obtained starters or promising youngsters around the horn, you should use your outfield slots to address any deficiencies in your skills.

Of course the best strategy here is to pay the going rate for one star for significant contributions in four-to-five categories like Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Garrett Anderson in the AL or Vladimir Guerrero, Barry Bonds, or Bobby Abreu in the NL. Two-to-three category specialists like Ichiro or Larry Walker only work best on teams with solid, run producing starters at most infield positions.

Our rationale for desiring one outfield star is that at least a couple elite players continually go for below-market prices in the early rounds of a draft. Securing an outfielder in the $35+ range gives you an excellent anchor for your offense. You should plan on spending about $40 total to secure two more starters, and then employ your last two OF slots to compensate for any category weaknesses on the rest of your team.

Tomorrow I'll provide a quick overview of our recommend roster structure for each league, as well as a breakdown of some pitching recommendations.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Leagues with a specific DH slot offer intriguing opportunities since the depth of players who qualify at DH continually remains below my expectations. Targeting a Brad Fullmer or Ellis Burks can enable you to gain a nice advantage over teams that instead gamble on youngsters like Eric Munson and Ken Harvey.