Today's Fantasy Rx

Between November 18th and March 10th, I examined every player who appeared in either in the Majors, AAA, or AA during the 2002 season. Our goal was to provide you with a basic reference on every player with a reasonable chance of contributing to a fantasy team this season. While I suspect I've missed a few September call-ups, I plan on completing profiles during the first two weeks of the season on anyone on a 40-man man roster that we haven't discussed here.

Last season 612 position players appeared in the majors, 303 that first played with NL teams, and 309 that first played with AL teams, a surprising number that illustrates the incredible roster turnover on the Orioles, Devil Rays, Indians, Tigers, and Royals in particular.

We hope to begin posting and discussing our projections within days so I'm not going to dwell on the minor leaguers, however I believe a quick recap of our conclusions by position and league will provide a necessary transition to our pre-season coverage

AL Catchers

Only 11 AL teams fielded even one catcher who earned Positive Draft Value in 2002. I wouldn't be shocked to see all negative values this year from catchers in Baltimore, Toronto, Detroit, and Kansas City. The departure of IRod means the strength of AL catching lies with back-ups. Doug Mirabelli, Tom Wilson, Josh Paul, A.J. Hinch, Mark Johnson, Mitch Meluskey, Ben Davis, and Todd Greene all could register a few bucks of profit, and only Davis should cost more than the minimum. Of course, not all of these catchers will break camp in the majors, but since only Posada, Hall, Pierzynski, and Varitek seem likely to earn much more than $5, I don't see significant justification for investing more than $5-6 in AL catchers. Target a few starters and back-ups with solid skills, and then hold your bidding at $6 for both of them unless you can secure one of the established performers at a reasonable price.

NL Catchers

Ten NL catchers seem capable of earning double-digit value based on either their upside or recent performance, so you should plan on investing in at least one established starter. Unlike the AL, I only expect respectable performances from back-ups Mike Redmond, Brian Schneider, Todd Pratt, Gregg Zaun, and whoever breaks camp as the reserve in Los Angeles(David Ross and/or Todd Hundley) and San Diego(Mike Rivera and/or Wiki Gonzalez). I'd budget around $10 here, however a couple decent veterans always fall to the low single digits. Consider attempting to sneak a back-up for a buck in the early rounds, and then pounce on the first respectable veteran when the bidding stops below his likely price. Investing in a Barrett or Kendall intrigues us to some extent, but the rigors of catching everyday generally make paying for premium catching talent a poor gamble.

AL Shortstops

The trinity of AL shortstops has evolved into a full-blown slate of officers with ARod, Nomar, Jeter, and Tejada holding down the primary offices and David Eckstein acting as current sergeant-at-arms. We fully expect the erstwhile trinity to remain in their current homes for the rest of the decade, and we view Baltimore as the most likely destination for Tejada if he leaves Oakland. Therefore not only do we see a lot of sense in targeting one these elite performers, but there's no reason you can't retain them for a couple seasons in keeper leagues. Spend for the first top shortstop where bidding stops near his projected value. We see some value in second-tier starters, however we wouldn't be shocked if no AL shortstop finished between $10 and $20 this season.

NL Shortstops

While I see some potential bargains among NL shortstops, the odds of Rey Sanchez, Alex Gonzalez, Barry Larkin, Royce Clayton, Jack Wilson, Cesar Izturis, or even Ramon Vazquez earning more than a couple bucks appear fairly slim. Changes in team strategy reduce the value of Jimmy Rollins and Alex S. Gonzalez, and we don't see guaranteed playing time for either Julio Lugo or Tony Womack. This quick elimination leaves us with Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera, and Rich Aurilia as reasonable targets anywhere in the teens, while Edgar Renteria and Jose Hernandez should pace the field, both possibly even exceeding $30. The only wild card is Felipe Lopez, who could also approach $20 if given 500 at-bats in Cincinnati. Otherwise, as in the AL, I'm uncomfortable with leaving an NL draft without a top five shortstop, however there's no reason to budget much over $20 here unless you're determined to pay for Renteria. I'll he shocked if at least three National League shortstops don't exceed $20 since the struggles of Fucal, Cabrera, and Aurilia appear rooted in health problems, all of which seem eliminated or severely reduced thanks to the off-season.

AL Second Basemen

Similar to the situation at AL catcher thanks to the departure of IRod, Ray Durham's move to the NL leaves little upside in AL second basemen. The addition of Todd Walker provides an intriguing option, especially in 5x5 leagues, however we're no longer convinced you should allocate much of your budget here. Soriano's questionable plate discipline basically insures he won't earn a profit on the $40+ you'll need to pay to acquire him. Bret Boone could rebound, however the age and injury questions throughout Seattle's line-up might leave him around $20. Paying in the teens for Walker, Frank Catalanotto, or Adam Kennedy is a reasonable plan, however the best profits at AL 2B rest with players only requiring a minimum investment. I'm particularly intrigued by Damian Easley, Carlos Febles, and Mike Young since each of these guys possess the skills necessary to rapidly increase in value if they remain healthy and in the lineup. For a little more money you should be able to buy D'Angelo Jimenez, Brandon Phillips, or Mark Ellis, each of whom shouldn't earn less than $5 and easily could break double-digits. Lastly, if either Jerry Hairston or Luis Rivas are available around $10-12, I'd eagerly snap them up given the $20+ upside of both players. At least six of these eight starters shouldn't see any loss on their likely auction prices, and the profit potential is far greater than that of a Boone or Kennedy.

NL Second Basemen

Among returning NL starters at second, only Jeff Kent looks likely to improve upon his 2002 performance as he departs perhaps the best pitchers' park in the majors for one of the top couple hitters' parks. Ray Durham, who should be an intriguing option given his SB upside, is a relatively poor value in San Francisco due to the decline he'll likely suffer by moving from the AL to PacBell. The best bargains here are Marcus Giles, Bobby Hill, Pablo Ozuna, and Joe Thurston, however unfortunately there's no guarantee any of these youngsters will exceed 300 at-bats due to the presence of respectable competition on each of their teams.

Taking the NL middle infield as a whole, you'll likely see the best return from grabbing one top shortstop, the first veteran second baseman available at cost, and then one younger prospect with playing time questions like Felipe Lopez or any of the second basemen listed immediately above. We don't see any back-ups likely to provide much impact in one category unless someone like Andy Fox slips owners' minds.

We certainly approve of rostering three veteran starters in the middle infield in either league, but unfortunately the relative necessity of grabbing a top shortstop and an established second baseman in both leagues will limit many draft budgets. Opting for a young MIF with SB upside looks like a reasonable compromise between securing solid value and maintaining a reasonable likelihood of potential profits at all MIF positions.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm going to briefly continue on a non-baseball subject (for those interested):

A headline in one of our Sunday papers that read "U.S. Can Only Wait As Nations Choose Up Sides" struck me as somewhat absurd until I considered that world diplomacy right now resembles the opening of a Security Council kickball game.

Kofi Annan: "While the U.S. certainly is visiting when it enters into Eurasian matters, they're technically the home team since we're holding this game in New York. France, call it in the air." *flips coin*

Jacques Chirac: "Off with their heads!"

Annan: "France calls heads." *catches coin* "Tails. U.S. gets the first pick."

Colin Powell: "We'll take Great Britain." *Tony Blair high-fives Powell*

Annan: "Now France takes two."

Chirac: "Russia and China."

Powell: *mutters "...international socialists"* "We'll take Spain."

Chirac: "Germany."

Powell: *mutters "...national and international socialists"* "Fine. Bulgaria."

Chirac: "Syria."

Powell: "Mexico."

Chirac: "Pakistan."

Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali: "Excuse me, but we're not interested in playing. I've also been asked to read a brief statement on the behalf of myself and the leaders of Angola, Cameroon, Chile, and Guinea":

"We're quite concerned that the western powers might similarly seek to intervene in our regional affairs in future years, so we're going to collectively obstain from involvement in this Middle Eastern policy. To quote U.S. Presidential candidate Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont, "What is to prevent China, some years down the road, from saying, 'Look what the United States did in Iraq - we're justified in going in and taking over Taiwan?'" The latest U.S. polls indicate that an unnamed Democrat would defeat President Bush in an election held now. To echo democratic ideals of these western powers, 'Why should we support the actions of a leader who isn't backed by his citizens?"