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February 25th 2003 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko National League Relief Pitchers with DV below $-5
Quick Key to the tables: Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats. Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for comments on Childers.
Houston successfully slipped Linebrink through waivers, inviting him to camp as an NRI. While he suffered from control problems in 2002, he's only a year removed from a 72:24 K:BB in 72 IP with 52 H and 4 HR over 50 G at AAA New Orleans(PCL). Linebrink missed a month due to a strained right elbow, however he flailed with the Astros primarily due to poor support from his teammates and a .62 career G-F. Unfortunately that flyball tendency limits his value in Minute Maid, so I wouldn't risk rostering him until he begins demonstrating solid skills in the majors.
The Dodgers solid Williams to the Hanshin Tigers in Japan even though they desperately need a quality lefty reliever. Unfortunately he's demonstrated little control in the majors, so despite his 2.60 ERA and league-leading 28 saves on a 75:22 K:BB in 79.2 IP with 80 H and 3 HR over 56 G at AAA Las Vegas(PCL), Williams needs to take advantage of his next MLB opportunity. I expect he'll return to the States next season, likely with a team like Oakland, but he's not worth rostering until he carries his minor league success to the next level.
While Boyd's an established AAAA reliever, I see little evidence he's ready to emerge as a competent Major Leaguer. Between AAA Portland(PCL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL) last season he compiled a combined 2.14 ERA on a 37:16 K:BB in 42 IP with 32 H and 5 HR over 28 G, a decent performance albeit not a dominant one. Signing with Cleveland gives him a good opportunity for big league playing time if he can outperform severe competition, however he likely needs a commitment from some team for an extended look before he'll continue his minor league success in the majors.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Rodriguez.
Pickford joined the long list of questionable Padre call-ups when they promoted him despite a 5.94 ERA on a 40:31 K:BB in 69.2 IP with 79 H and 5 HR over 12 GS(20G) at AAA Portland(PCL. They unsurprisingly released him following his rather awful performance in the majors, and I don't expect to see much of him this year after he failed to find an NRI. While he may own some talent, he hasn't demonstrated even decent command since 1998.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (N) Prospects for comments on Nickle.
I doubt we'll see Lorraine in the majors this season as he's not even in a big league camp. He pitched decently, though not anywhere near spectacularly, for AAA Indianapolis(IL) in 2002, compiling a 3.05 ERA on an 86:42 K:BB in 165 IP with 157 H and 14 HR over 24 GS(25G). However his career 5.8 K/9 demonstrates his lack of upside, and I believe he need to convert to the bullpen if he expect to see many more Major League innings.
Reyes fell to a career-worst 6.4 K/9 last season, and neither in 2002 or in any of the past few years has he demonstrated much effectiveness. Allowing an .856 OPS to right-handers over the last three years negates even the relative success suggested by a .708 OPS allowed against lefties. While there's a chance Reyes might not struggle in the majors given the right circumstances, joining the dozen NRIs on the Pirates isn't the best situation for him. Fortunately a stint in the minors might help his development, especially considering he only turn 26 in April, so though he doesn't merit rostering in the foreseeable future, I expect he'll emerge as a useful reliever in a couple years.
While the Astros' best course of action this spring is to leave Jeriome Robertson in the pen as the second lefty on the team after Billy Wagner, we keep seeing reports that Sanchez will break camp in the majors. Unfortunately nothing in his statistical history indicates he belongs above AA, and Sanchez struggled to post a 5.90 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL) last year while compiling a 94:65 K:BB in 125 IP with 144 H and 27 HR over 24 GS(26G). He'll have more success if left in the bullpen, but his .86 career G-F leaves him particularly vulnerable to parks like Minute Maid. I see no justification for drafting Sanchez at this time.
A season after spending a month as Arizona's closer Prinz found himself back in the minors when he wasn't struggling with the Diamondbacks. Fortunately Prinz continued establishing his credentials by posting a 2.97 ERA and 18 Saves on a 34:9 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 42 H and 4 HR over 37 G at AAA Tucson(PCL). He's essentially competing with Mike Jackson, Manny Aybar, Armando Reynoso, Ron Villone, and an injured Ricky Bottalico for one or two open bullpen spots on Arizona, and both due to his place on the 40-man roster and recent performance, I expect Prinz to break camp with Arizona. I wouldn't target him this spring given his inconsistent control in the majors, however he should emerge as solid roster filler before the start of summer.
Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (N) Prospects for comments on Chiasson.
Chen seems destined for the Marlins as he's played for every other team in the NL East and I don't see an obvious place for him with the Reds. Now I don't believe he needs more minor league team, but I'm not sure how to explain his career-high ERA when he also posted career-best marks of a 9.3 K/9 and .74 G-F. Over the last three years his stats suggest he belongs in either the rotation or long relief, however his inability to contain right-handed hitters limits his upside. While I'd love to see a team like Tampa or Detroit deal for him as they could let him start for a year to see in the hope he'd begin fulfilling his still significant potential, his current role won't allow him to accumulate much fantasy value. I see no reason to bid for Chen as long as he remains with Cincinnati and doesn't demonstrate obvious skill development.
Although Darensbourg isn't on Colorado's 40-man roster, he's nearly assured of breaking camp with the Rockies as they normally carry two lefty relievers, so he only needs to outperform Darren Oliver and Chris Michalak. Though Darensbourg struggled in 2002, he also owns a respectable career 7.3 K/9 and a marginally acceptable career 1.9 K:BB. Unfortunately a .84 career G-F gives him significant downside in Coors, especially after he allowed an 11.4 H/9 last season. He needs solid defensive support to succeed, and I don't see the Rockies helping Darensbourg lower his hit rate. More than perhaps any other current Colorado reliever, I see no reason to even consider Darensbourg for your team this season.
As Lowe's already pitched in three of the best hitters' parks in the majors over the last two years, I'm not too surprised by his decision to join Kansas City, home of the worst AL pitchers' park. Logically he'll wind up with Texas, Houston, and Cincinnati by 2005, however he might stay with the Royals all year due to their lack of veterans. Unfortunately he faces negligible odds of succeeding due to his inconsistent command, and his role to help protect Kansas City's pitching prospects from abuse is particularly ill-suited to a place on any fantasy team.
Corey owns intriguing immediate upside after compiling a 1.03 ERA on 37:7 K:BB in 26.1 IP with 14 H and 1 HR over 25 G at AAA Norfolk(IL) last spring, and his Major League problems don't negate the promise indicated by his recent minor league performance. Over the last two years he's managed a combined 1.44 ERA on a 132:41 K:BB in 98 IP over 79 G split between the three upper levels of the Mets' minors, and I believe he deserves a long look in the majors despite the likelihood of occasional control problems. Unfortunately his decision to sign with Pittsburgh leaves him with little chance of escaping AAA barring several injuries, so we'll need to wait another year to see if Corey can fulfill our expectations. Don't bother rostering him until some team commits to him for a few weeks.
Teams keep giving Oropesa opportunities in the majors despite his continually unimpressive performances. He's spending another spring training with Arizona since apparently they're focusing on his 3.86 ERA on a 26:13 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 23 H and 2 HR over 29 G at AAA Tucson(PCL) instead of his terrible numbers with the Diamondbacks(PCL). As he doesn't even hold much value as a specialist given his .874 OPS allowed against lefties, there's absolutely no reason to consider Oropesa for fantasy teams.
Cabrera faces little margin for error in his pitching as he's never managed a G-F ratio above .74 in a season. He needs both a defined bullpen role and good defensive support to compensate for his inconsistent command, and since he also doesn't dominate opponents, I see little obvious upside here. Signing with Minnesota gives him an intriguing opportunity to win a bullpen spot by beating out Mike Fetters or a few rookies, and he could compile reasonably good numbers thanks to the Twins' defense. However I see no reason to draft him now given the likely number of superior options available in the vast majority of leagues, so don't even bother employing him as roster filler unless he's posting decent skills while succeeding qualitatively after a few weeks in Minnesota.
One thousand, two hundred, and seventeen players competed in the Major Leagues in 2002, including 303 AL batters, 309 NL batters, 288 AL pitchers, and 317 NL pitchers, and only Dennis Tankersley and Mike Hampton contributed less to roto teams than Victor Santos. Santos' 134:43 K:BB in 118 IP over 21 GS at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) suggests he could succeed in the right circumstance, however I doubt anyone could managed an acceptable qualitative performance for the Rockies when compiling a 25:22 K:BB in 26 IP. He looks likely to spend most of this year in the minors after his signing added to Texas' ever-growing pitching depth, but the downside of pitching in Arlington negates any immediate potential he might possess. Even if Santos emerges as a contributor in the majors in the next couple of years, he doesn't appear worth your fantasy consideration in 2003.
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