Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

145.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ron Villone		4	0	5.81	1.39	55	34	95	93
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6		-7		R
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-6		-4		R

As Villone's spent the majority of the last decade in the majors and hasn't returned to the minors since 1999, I suspect Arizona will give him an excellent chance to break camp with the Diamondbacks. Only 10 spots on their staff seem filled, leaving Villone in competition with Mike Jackson, Manny Aybar, Bret Prinz, Armando Reynoso, a couple of minor leaguers, and the injured Ricky Bottalico for probably two openings. Yet while I like Villone's odds to avoid a trip to Tucson, I doubt he'll see much success, especially with the likelihood of him pitching in a long relief role thanks to Mike Myers and Greg Swindell covering the middle innings. He demonstrated little skill with the Pirates, however over the last three years he's held lefties to a reasonable .729 OPS, and he's posted a 4.94 ERA on a 92:45 K:BB in 127.2 IP with 118 H and 15 HR over 91 appearances out of the bullpen over the last three years. Villone might have some value to Arizona, however even though he could succeed in a traditional relief role, his inconsistency makes him a poor gamble at this time.

146.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nelson Figueroa		1	0	5.03	1.43	51	37	96	93
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		-3		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-6		-2		R

Figueroa's 2001 season indicated interesting promise as he spent most of the year in the majors and reached career-highs in most skill categories. However he pitched rather terribly last season as his G-F fell to .95, and he displayed little command regardless of his role. A 5-0 record and 3.63 ERA on a 25:13 K:BB in 39.2 IP with 39 H and 2 H over 6 GS at AAA Indianapolis(IL) suggests he retains some value as a AAAA pitcher and emergency injury replacement, but his decision to accept a Pittsburgh NRI virtually insures he'll see little time in the majors this year. Don't draft Figueroa, and avoid him as roster filler unless his command returns.

147.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hansel Izquierdo		2	0	4.55	1.82	20	21	33	29.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-7

The Red Sox raided the Marlins for a few players this off-season, however as Izquierdo's only played about 50 games above A-ball, I doubt he'll contribute to Boston in the near future. Not only does his awful .95 K:BB indicate his need for more development time, but his poor performance at AAA Calgary(PCL), including a 5.32 ERA on a 36:23 K:BB in 71 IP with 90 H and 11 HR over 13 GS, demonstrates his miniscule immediate upside. Now while Izquierdo's 2001 performance at AA Portland(EL) indicates he might mature into a decent big leaguer with another year or two in the minors, I can't imagine him helping any fantasy teams in 2003.

148.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Greg Swindell		0	0	6.27	1.30	23	5	38	33
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		2
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-4		-7		1

Last year Swindell missed two months with shoulder tendinitis and a bulging disc in his back, so he'd be a risky pick after turning 38 in January even if his skills otherwise were fine. Unfortunately he allowed a 1.028 OPS to left-handers in 2002 and he's averaged a .48 G-F the last two seasons, so I see no upside here even with a 4.6 K:BB and 6.3 K/9. The potential for continually high homer totals negates any potential contribution from a decent WHIP or a couple of vultured wins, making Swindell a poor choice even as roster filler barring an abrupt return to a groundball tendency.

149.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Joseph		0	0	4.91	2.00	2	6	16	11
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		-8

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of St. Louis Prospects for comments on Joseph.

150.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Walker		0	0	5.63	2.13	11	5	12	8
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		-7		-2

Only control problems prevented Walker from mostly dominating opponents back in 2000 when he posted a 7.6 K/9 and 1.58 G-F while allowing a sub-.635 OPS against all batters. He missed most of the last two seasons after requiring Tommy John surgery in mid-2001, an unsurprising development considering he pitched all of 27 games in the California League in 2000 while missing half the year with injuries immediately prior to appearing in 74 contests the next year. Consequently the combination of his limited experience above A-ball and his injury troubles leave him at severe risk for further control problems, and even his role as the Padres' primary left-hander in that great pitchers' park doesn't make him much more appealing to roto owners.

151.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Foster		1	0	10.80	2.40	6	6	6	5
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-5		-8

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Foster.

152.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Beimel		2	0	4.64	1.56	53	45	88	85.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6		-4

Dave Williams' arm surgery and the non-tendering of Jimmy Anderson leaves Beimel as the sole remaining lefty capable of starting for the Pirates, albeit the odds of him succeeding in that role are close to zero. Only his career 1.71 G-F gives him any value since he flailed both while starting, by posting a 24:17 K:BB in 42.2 IP, and relieving, by coasting to a 29:28 K:BB in 42.2 IP. The problem here is that they rushed Beimel to the majors for no reason. After selecting him in the 18th round in 1998, Beimel pitched at A Hickory(Sal) the following season, compiling a 102:43 K:BB in 130 IP over 22 GS(29G). He split 2000 between A+ Lynchburg(Car), where he registered a 10-6 record and 3.36 ERA on an 82:44 K:BB in 120.2 IP over 18 GS, and AA Altoona(EL), where he managed a 4.16 ERA on a 28:21 K:BB in 62.2 IP with 72 H and 8 HR over 10 GS. Nothing in any of these stats even suggests Beimel belonged in AAA in 2001, yet he could enter his third straight season in the majors. He's basically a lock to make the team with Scott Sauerbeck both the only other healthy lefty on the 40-man roster and one of Pittsburgh's best pieces of trade bait, although hopefully Mike Holtz or even Dennys Reyes will push Beimiel to the minors for needed development time. Do not draft Beimel this season.

153.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricky Bottalico		0	0	4.61	1.68	24	13	33	27.1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6		5		1
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-4		-7		5		1

Bottalico needed surgery last June to repair a torn labrum, and he's barely pitching right now since he's still experiencing shoulder weakness. Though he's a top candidate to fill Mike Fetters' middle relief roll this season when healthy, I also don't expect him to see much success in 2003 since he's always suffered from control problems. His decision to sign with Arizona leaves him in a park over 20% less favorable to pitchers than Veterans Stadium in Philly, and there's no evidence he'd dominate hitters even if healthy. There's no reason to draft Bottalico, and I'd only roster him during the season if he's displaying decent command and moves into a set-up role likely to provide him with the opportunity necessary to improve his quantitative marks.

154.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeriome Robertson		0	0	6.52	1.86	6	5	13	9.2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-5		-8

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Houston Prospects for comments on Robertson.

155.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Buddie		1	0	4.54	1.69	28	21	46	39.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		0
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-4		-7		-1

While Buddie doesn't possess the downside of other Brewers' pitchers thanks to his 2.10 career G-F, his career marks of a 5.7 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 leave him with little upside. Milwaukee released him last June despite this decent ERA, and he finished the year with AAA Ottawa(IL), managing an abhorrent 18:23 K:BB in 42 IP with 34 H and 2 HR over 29 games. He shockingly owns some chance of breaking camp with the Brewers this spring due to their complete lack of decent NRIs, but there's no reason to expect Buddie can noticeably improve on his 2002 performance in future seasons, leaving him unworthy of any fantasy berth.

156.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Lidge		1	0	6.23	2.42	12	9	12	8.2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6				R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-5		-8

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Houston Prospects for comments on Lidge.

157.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Mallette		0	0	10.80	2.00	5	3	7	5
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-5		-8

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Mallette.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm sure not why Brad Lidge so intrigues me given his terrible health record. However I know Houston needs to start grooming replacements for Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner since they really can't afford two top relievers while needing to pay Bagwell, Kent, Berkman, Miller, and Oswalt even without considering Hidalgo, Ausmus, Biggio, or other starting pitchers. Lidge, Tim Redding, and Kirk Saarloos look like the best candidates to replace Dotel as set-up men able to pitch multiple innings, however the latter two have much more upside in a rotation. Though Lidge could have more value as a starter, I don't see him remaining healthy for any length of time outside the bullpen, making him the logical candidate to stay in relief. He looks ready for the majors after compiling a 110:47 K:BB in 11.2 IP with 83 H and 9 HR over 19 GS(24G) at AAA New Orleans(PCL) last year, and as long as you have any leeway in reserving pitchers, gamble he'll quickly reach double-digit value by spending a buck or two in deeper leagues to roster him.