Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Courtney Duncan		0	0	0.00	1.29	1	1	2	2.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-6

A year after he emerged as one of the more promising relief prospects developed by the Cubs in years, Chicago essentially ignored Duncan due to his continuing control problems. However his 64:35 K:BB in 67.2 IP with 67 H and 6 HR over 55 G at AAA Iowa(PCL) indicates intriguing upside, and moving to San Diego gives him a better opportunity thanks to the open competition in their bullpen and the benefits of Petco Park. While I wouldn't draft Duncan this spring, he's usable as roster filler as long as he's demonstrating good command.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis Pineda		1	0	4.18	1.52	31	24	25	32.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		-3		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-5		-3		R

After tearing his labrum and rotator cuff last year, Pineda required September surgery that should keep him out for most of this season. He essentially skipped AAA, and while I see some upside here thanks to his 2001 performance at AA Erie(EL), I doubt he'll contribute to any fantasy teams before 2004.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bronson Arroyo		2	0	4.00	1.67	22	15	30	27
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5

The downside of the Pirates' strategy to corner the market on 5th starters, 6th relievers, and AAAA swingmen is that they somehow forgot they already possessed several solid pitchers. Though Arroyo hasn't impressed during three Major League auditions, he posted his best minor league season last year since 1997, compiling a 2.96 ERA on a 116:28 K:BB in 143 IP with 126 H and 10 HR over 21 GS(22G) at AAA Nashville(PCL). He deserves another couple years in a AAA rotation, along with at least a few spot starts, before he converts to relief, and I expect Boston, after claiming him off waivers, won't have any problem sending him to Pawtucket even though Arroyo's out of options. While he's not someone likely to contribute this season, I expect Arroyo will help some fantasy teams in the relatively near future.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Gryboski		2	0	3.48	1.68	33	37	50	51.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		-4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-5		-4

We expected him to have little difficulty in his Major League debut after compiling a 3.90 ERA on a 50:19 K:BB in 60 IP with 64 H and 8 HR over 58 G for AAA Tacoma(PCL) in 2001. While his ERA looks decent, his poor WHIP cancelled much of his value, and though he should spend another season with the Braves as one of only three returning relievers, we can't expect much success unless his control improves. Even though we like his 2.09 G-F, he registered a reverse platoon split, where he held left-handers to a .598 OPS while righties posted an .872 mark against him. Gryboski might emerge as a solid sleeper as soon as May, however he's not worth owning until his walk rate drops.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Toby Borland		1	0	5.27	1.39	11	5	14	13.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-4		-6

Although Florida's 12-man pitching staff appears set assuming they keep Blaine Neal and Kevin Olsen, the lack of prospects ready for the majors means that any injury or performance problems will create an opening for one of the half-dozen veteran NRIs. Not only did Borland pitch for the Marlins last season, but he also owns better skills than Doug Bochtler, Rick Croushore, Mike Judd, Allen Levrault, and Bryan Rekar. Borland compiled a 2.96 ERA on a 75:30 K:BB in 70 IP with 55 H and 2 HR over 56 G at AAA Calgary(PCL), and his recent success in the PCL while pitching at some of the best hitters' park in baseball indicates he merits a long look. Assuming Borland's minor league skills remain at his recent levels, he's perfectly usable as roster filler when he's in the majors.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shane Nance		0	0	4.26	1.26	5	4	4	6.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for comments on Nance.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Fetters		3	0	4.09	1.64	53	37	53	55
PIT/ARI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		-4		R
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-4		-4		R

Fetters looks likely to replace Mike Jackson as Minnesota's veteran right-handed reliever with a fearsome mustache and scowl, and I suspect the Twins will look to Rod Beck in the same role a year from now. Although Minnesota owns one of the best collections of right-handed relief prospects in baseball, they seem determined to employ one veteran, and they've only signed Fetters and Jose Cabrera. Now Cabrera possesses more upside, however a career-best 8.7 K/9 and solid 2.12 G-F make him a decent gamble even though he still suffers from control problems. Unfortunately Fetters' poor second half leaves him as a very questionable fantasy selection, so only use him as roster filler in the first half if he's displaying solid command.

115.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose A. Nunez		0	0	0.00	1.00	0	1	0	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-4		3
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-6		2

Though Nunez needed two separate surgeries last season, he's competing for a job as the Padres' second lefty reliever this spring since he only required arthroscopic surgery. Only his injury makes him a poor gamble given his success in 2001 for the Padres as a Rule 5 pick after he spent 2000 in the Sally League. Don't draft him, but due to his intriguing skills and the upside of Petco Park, Nunez might be one of the better available injury replacements in most leagues for much of this season.

116.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joey Dawley		0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	0.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Dawley.

117.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Troy Brohawn		0	0	6.35	1.06	3	1	5	5.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		-6

Last year Brohawn continued establishing his credentials as a solid reliever by compiling a 3.65 ERA on a 55:21 K:BB in 69 IP with 71 H and 7 HR over 56 G at AAA Fresno(PCL). His decision to join the Dodgers also gives him a great chance to spend much of this season in the majors since they lack any established lefty relievers. Unfortunately he's displayed a reverse platoon split during his two big league seasons, allowing a 1.009 OPS from lefties but limiting right-handers to a .641 mark. Turning 30 in January probably gives Brohawn more credibility among GMs as a veteran lefty, however I'll be surprised if he maintains the command necessary to merit a roster spot in most leagues this year.

118.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pat Mahomes		1	0	3.86	1.62	23	17	36	32.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-6

Historically Mahomes has displayed little skill despite pitching in the majors for most of the last decade, so I'm not sure how to treat his 3.48 ERA on a 70:20 K:BB in 72.1 IP with 57 H and 11 HR at AAA Iowa(PCL) last year. Given his poor track record, flyball tendency, and his failure to convert previous periods of AAA effectiveness into big league success, I rather doubt he'll contribute to many fantasy teams in the future. He also shouldn't spend much time in the majors this year since he entered into the toughest competition for roster spots in any camp by joining Pittsburgh. I see no reason to risk rostering Mahomes unless he holds solid skills with the Pirates over at least a month.

119.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Albie Lopez		1	0	4.37	1.51	39	18	66	55.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		8		3
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-5		9		3

Lopez never received the chance from Atlanta to establish himself once Moss emerged during an early-season DL trip for Lopez. Instead he spent the entire year as Atlanta's de facto mop-up man, averaging roughly one appearance per week. So now I'm loathe to recommend Lopez due to both his failure to live up to our expectations last season and his decision to join the Royals, who play in the second best hitters' park in the majors. However you might want to risk a buck or a reserve pick here thanks to his 2.95 ERA on a 26:11 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 37 H and 0 HR over 26 games out of the Braves' bullpen. A career 1.50 G-F mutes some of the downside of Kauffman Stadium, and if Kansas City manages to trade Jason Grimsley, Lopez will enter the season as the only veteran Royal reliever. While he doesn't possess the upside of youngsters like Austin, Bukvich, Hill, Voyles, and even MacDougal, Lopez easily could snag the closer's job and wind up earning double-digit value. I'm not sure I'd make this gamble unless I could dump him if he compiles terrible qualitative marks in long relief, but otherwise don't forget about him in your drafts.

120.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tyler Walker		1	0	5.91	1.50	7	5	11	10.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (N) Prospects for comments on Walker.

121.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rheal Cormier		5	0	5.25	1.55	49	32	61	60
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		2
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-5		1

While I mildly liked Cormier a year ago due to his decent command, his control slipped in 2002 and he turns 36 this April. Of course he also posted career-best marks of a 7.4 K/9 and 2.63 G-F, and he'll vulture a half-dozen wins thanks to Philly's improved offense. Don't draft Cormier, but feel free to use him an injury replacement assuming his walk rate at least drops from 4.8 to 3.75 BB/9.

122.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Parra		0	0	3.21	1.71	8	11	13	14
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		-6

Parra spent 1998 in Korea, 1999 in Japan, and split 2001 between the Mexican and Taiwanese Leagues. As he's not in camp right now, I doubt we'll see him in the majors this season, and considering his terrible command a year ago, I'm glad teams instead are auditioning players with some semblance of obvious skill.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oswaldo Mairena		2	0	5.35	1.49	21	12	38	33.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-6

While I didn't expect Mairena to retain his spot on the 40-man roster, he entered Spring Training as Florida's third lefty reliever, and he easily could beat out Kevin Olsen for the last spot on the pitching staff if Michael Tejera wins a rotation job. Unfortunately Mairena, following a 44:13 K:BB in 39.1 IP at AAA Calgary(PCL) in 2001, slipped to a 19:13 K:BB in 29 IP at Calgary last season. As he also demonstrated little effectiveness in the majors, I see no reason to consider him for a spot on your team at this time.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nelson Cruz		2	0	4.48	1.52	61	29	90	78.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		1		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-4		1		R

While anyone with a career 239:98 K:BB in 294.2 IP offers some upside, Cruz looks likely to finish 2003 among the least valuable fantasy pitchers in the game. Despite his promising dominance and command, I see little upside for anyone who owns a career .98 G-F and lacks a great strikeout rate, and his new job as the Rockies' long reliever leaves him exposed to very qualitatively damaging assaults. Though I'd consider him in nearly any other park, you cannot own Cruz in Colorado barring an unexpectedly significant improvement in his skills.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Trey Hodges		2	0	5.40	1.89	1	6	16	11.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-7

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Hodges.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Both Joey Dawley and Trey Hodges of Atlanta and Tyler Walker of the Mets registered excellent performances at AAA last year. While none of them dominated batters over the entire season, all three of them could experience impressive success if given the required opportunity this season. Hodges in particularly looks prepared to emerge as Atlanta's next competent homegrown starter, and even if he doesn't win the 5th starter's job from Jason Marquis, he's worth rostering for a couple bucks as long as he breaks camp with the Braves. I see no reason why he couldn't follow Damian Moss' path into the rotation by the end of April.