Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV from $1 to $3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Weathers		6	0	2.91	1.36	61	36	69	77.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		5		3
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	3		4		5		1

While Weathers nicely settled into a middle relief role for the Mets, he didn't display any particularly impressive skills, only managing PDV thanks to the advantages of his home park. My growing concern regarding Weathers is that his skills disintegrate in the second half. Over the last three seasons, although he's averaged a sub-3.00 ERA in both halves, his walk rate jumped from 3.4 to 4.4 BB/9, his strikeout rate sliped from 6.7 to 6.5 K/9, and his homer rate increased from .6 to .9 HR/9. His skill changes indicate his ERA should rise from 2.68 before the break to 3.24 rather than the 2.93 mark he has posted. Of course, there's no specific reason to target Weathers as he's a poor candidate for more than a half-dozen vultured wins and doesn't offer much help in either qualitative category. Consequently, although you can use him as roster filler as needed, I'd avoid him entirely in the second half.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Felix Rodriguez		8	0	4.17	1.19	58	29	53	69
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		10		8
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	3		4		9		7

After emerging as one of the top set-up men in the game over the last few seasons with the Giants, FRod posted a rather bizarre 5.55 ERA in the first half of 2002 despite a 35:18 K:BB in 35.2 IP with 36 H and 4 HR. He received much better defensive support after the Break, compiling a 2.70 ERA with a 23:11 K:BB in 33.1 IP with 17 H and 1 HR. Unfortunately he finished the year with only a 7.6 K/9 after two seasons over 10.2 K/9, suggesting a reduced upside as his walk rate increased from 3.0 to 3.8 BB/9. Rodriguez posted a .76 G-F in 2002 and has a career .87 G-F, but one reason for his success over the past two years is that PacBell reduces homers by 40% compared to an average NL stadium, and it's one of the three best overall pitchers' parks in the majors. We continue to see his name in trade talks, and while he's owned closer-caliber skills, his troublesome 2002 performance makes him a poor gamble in almost any other ballpark. Spend up to $5 if he's with the Giants when you draft, otherwise don't consider more than a buck or two unless he's appointed closer for a team like the Royals or Rays.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cliff Politte		3	1	3.67	1.15	72	28	57	73.2
PHI/TOR		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		3		2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	3		4		3		R

Politte will inherit Toronto's closer job by the end of the season barring a breakdown in his skills or an unexpected playoff run that persuades Ricciardi to keep Kelvim Escobar despite his pending free agency. Although a career-worst .87 G-F troubles me, I'm impressed by his 8.8 K/9 and a 37:12 K:BB in 36.1 IP with the Blue Jays during the second half. His .442 OPS against right-handers indicates he'd be more effective if he was given a righty specialist role, but his .756 OPS versus lefties isn't too poor to keep from him increased short relief work. He reached a career-high 73.2 IP without spending any time on the DL in 2002. I like the odds of Politte reaching a half-dozen saves in 2003 and managing better qualitative stats, making him a good buy anywhere in single digits.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Strickland		6	2	3.54	1.37	69	33	61	68.2
MON/NYM		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		21		15
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	3		4		18		14

Though Strickland's 9.0 K/9 and 2.1 K:BB allow him to keep his spot as Armando Benitez's set-up man and heir to the Mets' closer job, I'm concerned about his 4.4 BB/9 and .93 G-F marks over the last two seasons. Additionally, his splits worry me as he's held right-handers to a .558 OPS over the last three seasons while left-handers posted an .862 OPS against him over the same span. Since Strickland also pitches better in the second half, I see little reason to target him at the moment, and you should only look to trade for him in June or July if his skills look fairly solid.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Speier		5	1	4.33	1.12	47	19	51	62.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		3		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	2		3		1

Although Speier missed the first month of last season with hamstring inflammation, he's otherwise emerged as Colorado's most reliable middle reliever since the Rockies claimed him off waivers from Cleveland in May of 2001. He's compiled a 94:31 K:BB in 118.1 IP with 98 H and 17 HR over that span, and while his .69 G-F makes him a questionable fantasy pick thanks to the thin air in Colorado, he should continue providing mild WHIP support, along with several vultured wins. Speier compiled a 2.10 ERA on a 16:6 K:BB in 30 IP with 18 H and 2 HR over 30 appearances on the road, so there's little question he owns the skills to succeed in most environments. You can comfortably employ him in leagues with few transaction restrictions as he could earn several bucks of value if you never pitch him in Coors, however I wouldn't roster him in most leagues due to the Denver downside.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kerry Ligtenberg		3	0	2.97	1.28	51	33	52	66.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		4		2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		4		1

I'm not certain why Atlanta non-tendered Ligtenberg and then added Roberto Hernandez and kept Darren Holmes rather than re-signing Ligtenberg, especially when he offers more upside than either elder veteran. Of course, I realize Ligtenberg suffers from control and G-F problems and his strikeout rate and command have dropped each year of his career, respectively falling to a 6.9 K/9 and 1.6 K:BB in 2002. However his command improved during the second half of 2002 and he still held right-handers to a .574 OPS. Unfortunately Ligtenberg's .72 G-F makes him too risky to own in Baltimore given the recent changes to Camden Yards' dimensions, so you should look elsewhere for roster filler even though he's unlikely to kill your qualitative numbers if you need an injury replacement for a couple weeks.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Valerio de los Santos		2	0	3.12	1.18	38	26	42	57.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		2				R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	1		1

The trade of Ray King to Atlanta leaves de los Santos as Milwaukee's top lefty reliever, a somewhat unfortunate circumstance for the Brewers given de los Santos' injury history and inconsistent command. Fortunately we can expect general improvement in his performance since 2003 is his second season after Tommy John surgery. I expect he'll return to near the 70:33 K:BB in 73.2 IP he compiled in 2000. However de los Santos remains an extreme flyball pitcher with a .66 career G-F, and even improved dominance won't prevent him from earning relatively little value in Miller Park. Don't bother employing him as anything other than occasional roster filler unless his strikeout rate jumps upwards without the corresponding walk rate increase we expect.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ray King		3	0	3.05	1.31	50	24	61	65
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		2		0		R
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		2		0		1

King owns some of the best skills of any lefty reliever in the game, compiling a 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, .7 HR/9, and 1.90 G-F in 2002. We expect he'll continue improving under Leo Mazzone's tutelage in Atlanta this season, giving him the potential to earn anywhere between $3 and $9. He's a solid choice as roster filler in any league as he'll post decent qualitative marks and a few dozen strikeouts even if he won't contribute many wins or saves.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Spooneybarger		1	1	2.63	1.25	33	26	38	51.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		4		2
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	1		1		4		1

I wasn't particularly impressed by Spooneybarger's performance last season, especially since he only reached PDV thanks to a 6.7 H/9. However he improved from a 12:13 K:BB in 21.1 IP in the first half to a 21:13 K:BB in 30 IP after the Break, and as he owns a 79:39 K:BB in 70.2 IP with 46 H and 2 HR over 60 G at AAA Richmond(IL) over the past two year, I like his long-term upside a lot. He definitely possesses the dominance necessary to emerge as Florida's closer within the next two seasons, and while his control concerns me, a 1.80 G-F in 2002 reduces his downside. You can bid to $5 on Spooneybarger without worrying about a loss, although Looper owners might want to add an extra couple bucks to their bids to protect their investment in Marlins' saves.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Grant Roberts		3	0	2.20	1.31	31	16	43	45
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		-1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	1		1		0

Roberts needs to remain dedicated to both staying healthy and improving his skills in 2003, especially since he enters Spring Training as no better than the sixth reliever in the pen. He missed much of last season with shoulder tendinitis, and I'll want to see his strikeout rate return to the 10.0 K/9 he posted in 2001 before making an investment in Roberts. Fortunately he owns decent overall skills and should succeed even when not dominating batters, so while I only like him as roster filler this year, his upside remains quite high.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Zach Day		4	1	3.62	1.15	25	15	28	37.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2				R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	1		0

After spending about half of 2002 at AAA Ottawa(IL), where he compiled a 3.50 ERA on a 68:32 K:BB in 90 IP with 77 H and 5 HR, Day retained most of his skills upon his Major League debut. While he pitched terribly in two starts, he posted a 2.43 ERA on a 20:12 K:BB in 29.2 IP with 19 H and 2 HR over 17 relief appearances, so he'll probably spend most of this season with the Expos regardless of his role. Day's unimpressive dominance throughout his minor league career indicates he'll find more success in the bullpen, especially since he allowed less than a .600 OPS through his first 60 pitches but a 1.000+ OPS after his 60th pitch. He belongs in long relief for Montreal this year, and as he shouldn't suffer if needed for a few spot starts, feel free to gamble a buck or two on his upside.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Smith		1	2	3.47	1.18	34	21	34	46.2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	1		0

Smith rarely displayed decent command during his decade-long professional career, so his 61:18 K:BB in 83.1 IP with 71 H and 10 HR over 14 G at AAA Ottawa(IL) last year definitely ranks as a notable surprise. Unfortunately he slipped to a 34:21 K:BB in 46.2 IP following his promotion, and his general flyball tendency reduces his already limited upside. I don't see any obvious reason for his success in 2002 other than timely defensive support, and as Smith is unlikely to maintain these qualitative levels, he doesn't even offer much help as roster filler.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Terry Adams		7	0	4.35	1.39	96	58	132	136.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		3		6
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	2		3		4		8

Philadelphia never should have allowed Adams to remain a starter as he rarely displayed the skills necessary to succeed in a rotation even when starting in Los Angeles. As expected, Adams' performance markedly improved upon his return to the pen, where he compiled a 2.38 ERA on a 26:11 K:BB in 34 IP with 27 H and 2 HR over 27 games. He rejoins the Phillies as their primary set-up man, and he shouldn't encounter any problems if he needs to close. I expect Adams to reach at least five bucks of value this season due to both improved qualitative marks and an impressive quantitative contribution on the strength of plenty of vultured wins, making him a good target anywhere in the mid-single digits.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Villafuerte		1	1	1.41	1.28	25	12	29	32
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		0

A former 66th round pick of the Mets, Villafuerte caught the Padres' eye by excelling at both AAA Oklahoma(PCL) and AAA Portland(PCL) over the past two seasons. He compiled a combined 2.44 ERA on a 119:48 K:BB in 121.2 IP with 106 H and 6 HR over 85 relief appearances, so his continued success upon reaching the majors wasn't a surprise. Not only did he display solid dominance and good command, a 2.30 G-F also increases his value out of the pen. However, I don't expect Villafuerte to see much time as closer since he lacks both the overall upside and experience of Jay Witasick. Consequently, Villaefuerte's only worth a couple bucks like any other middle reliever who owns solid skills and pitches in a favorable park.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Zerbe		2	0	3.04	1.30	26	21	52	56.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0

Zerbe possesses little upside due to his weak dominance and therefore questionable command, however at least he's a groundball pitcher with decent control. We likely won't see a 4.00+ ERA from him as long as he stays with the Giants, however he's behind Scott Eyre on the current depth chart and could lose his roster spot once Jason Christiansen returns. Of course, there's rarely any reason to draft someone with a 4.2 K/9, so you won't need to worry about a potential change of address for Zerbe since you won't own him.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Clay Condrey		1	0	1.69	1.05	16	8	20	26.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Diego Prospects for comments on Condrey.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
T.J. Tucker		6	4	4.11	1.63	42	31	69	61.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0

Tucker moved to the pen last spring despite experiencing a reasonable amount of success while starting at every level of the Expos' system. A first-half ERA of 1.75 on a 34:21 K:BB in 46.1 IP with 41 H and 0 HR increased his visibility as a pseudo co-closer for Montreal, however his questionable command, coupled with a lower back sprain that cost him three weeks on the DL in the fall, combined to nearly destroy his roto value. He finished the second half with an 11.40 ERA on an 8:10 K:BB in 15 IP with 28 H and 5 HR, and despite the almost complete lack of solid right-handed relievers on the Expos, I don't see many saves in Tucker's future. Avoid him until his command returns to the decent level he maintained in the minors.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Myers		4	4	4.38	1.51	31	17	39	37
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		-3		R
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	0		-1		-3

One of the true lefty specialists in recent MLB history, Myers averages less than three batters per career appearance; over the last few years he's averaged less than 2.5 batters per appearance. The upside of his ridiculously limited workload is that he doesn't pitch enough to either hurt or help you qualitatively. A 2.73 G-F also limits his downside, however his inconsistent command makes him unusable as anything but occasional roster filler.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Drew		1	2	2.81	0.88	10	2	12	16
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-2

Drew severely regressed in 2002, compiling a combined 3.08 ERA between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Ottawa(IL) despite a 72:47 K:BB in 181 IP with 173 H and 11 homers over 28 GS. He displayed much more upside in 2001 with a 75:27 K:BB in 108 AAA innings, however an increasing flyball tendency reduces his immediate upside. Although Drew may be the most prepared candidate in competition for the Expos' 5th starter spot, I see little likelihood he'll find immediate success. He appears to need at least another couple months at AAA since he's too young to move to relief after displaying solid starting skills only a season ago. Consequently, while I wouldn't even spend an Ultra pick on him now, Drew may merit a sizable in-season FAAB expenditure if his strikeout rate rebounds in the minors.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Armando Almanza		3	2	4.34	1.29	57	23	36	45.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		-5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	1		0		-5

The inclusion of Vic Darensbourg in the package Florida sent to Colorado for Hampton leaves Almanza as the undisputed lefty short reliever on the Marlins. Few pitchers in the game own a career 10.2 K/9, so only his similarly rare 6.1 BB/9 keeps him from succeeding in a larger role, though I only ignore his career .59 G-F due to the benefits of pitching in Pro Player Stadium. Fortunately Almanza managed a 2.5 K:BB in 2002, a nice improvement from the 1.1 and 1.7 K:BB he registered the previous two seasons. I see sufficient upside in his performance last season to strongly consider him for a buck or two in some drafts, but his fairly limited opportunity to accumulate many wins or saves means he belongs in Dollar Days at best.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Michael Tejera		8	1	4.45	1.46	95	60	144	139.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	1		2

The 121st and last NL pitcher with PDV in 2002, Tejera displayed relatively impressive skills despite jumping from AA to the majors. Even his 3.9 BB/9 wasn't too bad, and while he should spend one more year as a swingman for Florida, I expect him to emerge as a solid starting option no later than 2004. Now his current skills suggest definite downside, but considering he belonged at AAA last season, only inconsistency prevented him from pitching more effectively. Tejera merits a couple bucks in any league, although you should exercise more discretion in your bidding if you can't reserve him at your leisure.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of today's pitchers either are established lefty relievers or viewed as potential closers. However the only guys likely to reach double-digit value this season thanks to moving into a more visible role are Cliff Politte, Michael Tejera, and possibly Zach Day. I don't see significant upside for any of these other pitchers until at least the 2004 season, making them unworthy of selection much before Dollar Days.