Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV from $4 to $6

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Reed		2	1	2.01	1.04	50	14	56	67
SD/NYM		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		9		-1
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	5		7		-1

Not only does Reed possess the skills to maintain this level of effectiveness, but considering he owns the Rockies' all-time record for lowest ERA with a 3.68 mark, I'm not worried about him moving back to Colorado, especially after he posted a career-best 1.78 G-F. Though his 6.7 K/9 indicates he's not overly dominant, a 1.9 BB/9 suggests his qualitative numbers won't overly suffer even if his homer rate shoots upward. Reed remains a perfectly acceptable Dollar Days pick even as a Rockie, and I'll be surprised if he fails to turn a small profit on a minimum bid.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darren Holmes		2	1	1.81	0.97	47	12	41	54.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	5		7

While Atlanta added a couple of decent relievers like Ray King and Roberto Hernandez, I'm not certain why they bothered re-signing Darren Holmes despite letting Remlinger, Hammond, Spooneybarger, and Ligtenberg depart over a three-week period. Holmes hadn't pitched effectively since 1998 and he turns 37 in April, suggesting he's unlikely to maintain these skills through a second season. However other than his .97 G-F, I'm not even mildly troubled by his other marks. He markedly improved in the second half despite receiving reduced defensive support, and since, unlike Hammond, Holmes stayed in the same place, he holds good odds for retaining PDV. He's a good buy at a buck or two even though he's no better than third in line for saves after Smoltz and Hernandez.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Veres		5	4	3.48	1.28	68	39	67	82.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		1		7
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	5		7		1		1

While we've liked Veres for years, we view him as a horrible fit for the Cubs after he posted a career-worst 1.13 G-F and a troubling 7.4 K/9. His walk rate jumped from 3.0 to 3.8 a year ago before moving to 4.2 BB/9 in 2002, and only an unexpected career-low 7.3 H/9 allowed him to manage a helpful qualitative contribution. Veres suffered through a relatively poor second half despite improved skills because his defensive support decreased, and he only managed a 5.45 ERA on a 29:23 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 36 H and 8 HR on the road, both data points that foretell trouble in Wrigley. Barring an abrupt rebound of his deteriorating command, I wouldn't bother using him as anything more than roster filler unless you grow desperate for any potential saves.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Giovanni Carrara		6	1	3.28	1.27	56	32	83	90.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		3		3
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	4		6		3		2

The only secure members of the Dodgers' pen are Gagne, Shuey, and Quantrill, leaving Carrara, Guillermo Mota, and over a half-dozen others to fight for the three or four remaining spots. Carrara's likely to break camp in the majors after Los Angeles kept him on the 40-man roster all winter, however as all his skills slipped in 2002, I don't expect Carrara possesses the upside necessary to hold his roster spot all season. Posting a 28:16 K:BB in each half indicates his best hope is to maintain his current level of skill, yet I wouldn't even consider Carrara as roster filler if he didn't pitch in a great pitchers' park. I don't view him as draft-worthy unless LA suffers a couple of significant injuries during Spring Training.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Sauerbeck		5	0	2.30	1.23	70	27	50	62.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	4		6		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		1

Sauerbeck's walk rate dropped from 5.7 to 3.9 BB/9 as he finished among the two dozen most valuable relievers in baseball for the first time. He held lefties to a .430 OPS while allowing a reasonable .763 against right-handers, and only improved control versus righties stands between Sauerbeck and elite reliever status. My main concerns here are that he won't see any save opportunities due to the Pirates' depth in right-handed relievers and he's one of the most prominent left-handers frequently mentioned in trade talks. I expect a team like Florida, Anaheim, Houston, or Texas to deal a couple of solid prospects for Sauerbeck before the trade deadline, making him a risky pick in leagues that don't allow you to keep players traded to the NL. His limited upside suggests bidding more than a couple bucks is unwise, and he'll probably wind up as roster filler in most league even though he's equally helpful in both 4x4 and 5x5 scoring.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Crudale		3	0	1.88	1.08	47	14	43	52.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	4		5

Crudale shot to the majors less than three years following his selection by the Cardinals in the 24th round of the 1999 draft. He dominated batters at all five minor league stops before emerging as the Cardinals' best set-up man after his promotion. Unfortunately we can't expect him to maintain a sub-2.50 ERA even if he didn't post a poor .66 G-F, but there's no reason he shouldn't finish 2003 between $5 and $10. He's one of the more impressive pure relief prospects to reach the majors in a few seasons and should remain very useful in middle relief until he succeeds Izzy as the Cards' closer.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gabe White		6	0	2.98	1.09	41	10	49	54.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		6		2		2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	3		4		2		1

I doubt White even will approach this level of positive qualitative support in 2003 barring a trade to a very friendly pitchers' park like Dodger Stadium. He's possessed great command for years, but while his G-F stayed between .50 and .70 G-F over the last six years, his homer rate only fell below 1.3 HR/9 once in the previous five seasons before a .5 HR/9 in 2002. The Great American Ballpark looks like one of the best hitters' park in the majors, making White a definite risk to drop close to $0 unless he somehow keeps his homer rate below 1.0. As I also don't expect White will reach high quantitative totals, he's a risky pick for more than a buck or two.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Guthrie		5	1	2.44	1.13	44	19	35	48
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	4		6		1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	3		4		0

Career-best marks of a 2.28 G-F and a 6.6 H/9, combined with the benefits of playing at the fifth best pitchers' park in the NL, allowed Guthrie to merit one of the last $1M+ contracts awarded this off-season thank to Jim Hendry's largesse. At least one of the Cubs' three new 36+ year-old relievers should break down in 2003, and even if Guthrie avoids the DL, his decreasing dominance and a likely surge in his hit rate will leave him with little fantasy value. Don't draft him, and only use him as roster filler if his skills are solid when you need him.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Kline		2	6	3.39	1.29	41	21	54	58.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	4		5		7		5
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	3		4		6		1

Though theoretically an option to close for the Cardinals during any Izzy DL stints, Kline's strikeout rate dropped for the fourth straight year as his fantasy value headed closer to zero. A career-worst 1.56 G-F indicates a likely rise in his homer rate, and only dominating performances at home allow Kline to maintain positive qualitative contributions. I think he'll likely earn a few bucks based on his track record, however drafting him much before Dollar Days seems an unnecessary risk given his growing downside.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Koplove		6	0	3.36	1.14	46	23	47	61.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	3		4

Koplove returned to the minors for 23 games despite a promising late-season performance in 2001. Of course he dominated opponents at AAA Tucson(PCL) with a 1.17 ERA on a 31:4 K:BB in 30.2 IP with 21 H and 1 H, so his continued success in the majors wasn't a surprise. His only noticeable problem is an elevated walk rate, but as he own a 2.38 G-F and receives the benefits of Arizona's solid defense and short relievers, I expect he at least will maintain this level of production. Although Koplove's unlikely to close for Arizona in the near future thanks to the presence Matt Mantei and Byung-Hyung Kim, he shouldn't hurt you for a buck or two and could earn $5 or more with a little lucky offensive support.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos Silva		5	1	3.21	1.31	41	22	88	84
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	3		4

Fortunately Philly re-signed Terry Adams and Dan Plesac while allowing Joe Roa and Eric Junge to move to the bullpen as Silva barely demonstrated the skills necessary to maintain his 2002 role this year. Silva skipped AAA after posting a 15-8 record and 3.90 ERA on a 100:27 K:BB in 180 IP with 187 H and 20 HR at AA Reading(EL) in 2001, so his unimpressive Major League debut shouldn't have surprised anyone. Fortunately he managed both a 2.81 G-F and 2.4 BB/9, so while he needs to improve upon his 4.4 K/9, I'm fairly pleased with these numbers since he should have spent the year in the minors. I don't think even a Dollar Days grab of Silva will net you more than a buck or two of profit, but you might consider a low round Ultra pick in deep leagues since he could emerge as Philly's closer by 2005.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Quantrill		5	1	2.70	1.37	53	25	80	76.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	4		5		5		5
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	3		4		4		2

After leading the league with 33 holds Quantrill's quite secure in his middle relief role for the Dodgers. Either Paul Shuey or a healthy Darren Dreifort seems far more likely than Quantrill to pick up any excess save opportunities from Gagne. Of course while Quantrill's not a dominant reliever, he's pitched rather effectively over the last few years, and playing home games in Dodger Stadium only can help his numbers. There's not enough upside here to warrant any bids above a buck, but I also see nothing wrong with rostering Quantrill if you want to complete your staff with someone who possesses little downside.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Boehringer		4	1	3.39	1.23	65	33	65	79.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	4		5		-1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	4		5		-1

Pittsburgh's decisions to re-sign Boehringer and trade for Matt Herges should force either Mike Lincoln or Duaner Sanchez back to the minors, a poor move for a team that needs to infuse younger, cheaper players with greater upside than these journeymen. However, aside from a .69 G-F, Boehringer's skills aren't far from those of Mike Williams, indicating that Boehringer is the most likely recipient of available save opportunities due to a Williams' injury or trade. He even suffered the same second-half control problems as Williams. I can envision spending a couple bucks on Boehringer if I needed to scrounge for saves, but he's not someone I'd target due to his inconsistent command.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jay Witasick		1	0	2.37	1.16	54	21	58	68.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		-2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	3		4		-1

Other than his past failures as a starter and, I see no reason for anyone to question the skills of Gerald Alphonse Witasick's as a reliever. Over the last three seasons he's compiled a 170:59 K:BB in 162.1 IP with 157 H and 13 HR, so while he occasionally encounters control problems, he possesses both the dominance and command necessary to succeed in a late-inning role. While I'm concerned he also has allowed an .858 OPS to lefties over the last three years, he held all batters to a sub-.650 OPS in 2002. A career-best 1.59 G-F is the final stat I wanted to see before recommending you bid him at least to $5, and if we hear Hoffman will miss more than a month, Witasick's worth any bid below $10. I think Jaret Wright has more upside as a traditional closer, but Witasick owns the skills necessary to hold the closer's job and rack over two-dozen saves.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Durocher		1	0	1.88	1.00	44	21	27	48
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	3		4

He finally reached the majors after a decade in professional baseball thanks to a 2.73 ERA on a 39:15 K:BB in 26.1 IP with 19 H and 3 HR at AAA Indianapolis(IL). Although Durocher's always suffered from control problems, he also owns the strikeout rate necessary to negate his high 3.9 walk rate. However I can't imagine Milwaukee providing him with this level of defensive support for another season, so both his ERA and WHIP should increase at least by a third of his 2002 marks. Yet while I don't see an expanded role in the near future for Durocher, he's perfectly acceptable as roster filler or a Dollar Days pick, especially if just need a temporary replacement with relatively little downside for an injured starter in a 5x5 league.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Today's group of set-up guys offers nice depth of both lefty relievers who won't hurt you and right-handed set-up men with the potential to close. Mike Crudale, Brian Boehringer, and Jay Witasick in particular appear to be their respective teams' current second choices as closer, and the likelihood of Isringhausen and Hoffman beginning the year on the DL bumps the value of Crudale and Witasick. Although I believe that Jaret Wright in San Diego and either Joey Hamilton or Dustin Hermanson in St. Louis are fairly likely to see a few save opportunities, Crudale and Witasick own both the skills and short relief roles necessary to open the year at closer. Add a buck to each reliever's value for every two games you expect they'll save.