Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV from $7 to $19

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Octavio Dotel		6	6	1.85	0.87	118	27	58	97.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	17		24		12		9
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	17		24		12		6

Only 6 pitchers in the NL contributed more qualitative value than Dotel and a mere 20 posted higher overall values; yet I doubt he went anywhere in the first 10 rounds or much above $12 in any draft where someone didn't spread unfounded rumors about Billy Wagner's questionable health. While the Astros possess enough depth to leave the most valuable reliever in baseball in his current role, the coming additions of Tim Redding and Brad Lidge in middle relief might lead to Dotel's departure for salary reasons. I definitely see him moving to the rotation on a different team as his major hurdle is a .63 career G-F and the corresponding homer problems; pitching in one of best parks for homers in the majors forces him to stay in relief. However no one with a 10.9 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 will struggle in any role, and Dotel and Arthur Rhodes are the only middle relievers virtually guaranteed to earn double-digit draft value.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Vladimir Nunez		6	20	3.41	1.20	73	37	80	97.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		24		14		3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	15		22		12		R

Gambling on Nunez in a couple of mid-March drafts last year when everyone else turned towards Braden Looper netted us some very pleasant results. Inconsistency cost Nunez lost his closing job in July even though maintained reasonably good command throughout the entire season, and since he improves during longer outings, we approve of the switch due to his increased value in middle relief. While a career-worst .93 G-F slightly worries me, he otherwise displayed the best combination of skills of his five-year career. Nunez isn't a great gamble since he's likely no better than third in line for Marlins' saves, however he owns the best track record in Florida's relief corps and should earn a comfortable $5 or so regardless of role, making him a solid buy for a couple bucks.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike DeJean		1	27	3.12	1.40	65	39	66	75
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		22		4		1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	14		20		4		1

DeJean is one of the more vexing players in baseball as he doesn't own the skills of a traditional closer yet should remain in his current role in Milwaukee due to the increased value of multiple-inning outings from Luis Vizcaino and Jayson Durocher in middle relief. Now Curt Leskanic easily could reclaim the closer's job once healthy, but I can't imagine DeJean saving less than a dozen games barring an early season meltdown. He even improved in the second half to a 1.9 K:BB, 4.1 BB/9, and .6 HR/9, ratios which, while not overly impressive, don't indicate a pending role change. I wouldn't bid into double digits for DeJean, however I'd jump at the chance to roster him for a lesser sum.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Stewart		4	17	3.09	1.11	67	22	49	64
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	13		19		6		2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	12		17		5		R

Stewart certainly deserved to close on a Montreal team lacking competent right-handed relievers and possessing a solid lefty middle reliever in Joey Eischen. Since the Expos again lack even one decent righty, Stewart should be a lock to net most of Montreal's saves. However he holds lefties to a .398 OPS while allowing a .705 mark to right-handers, increasing his value as a specialist, so he'll need to maintain his effectiveness throughout the season if he wants to see the opportunities to save more than a dozen games. Fortunately there's nothing wrong with his skills other than a very slight control problem, and a jump from a 1.07 G-F to a 2.06 mark nicely reduces his downside. So though I don't see him earning more than $15 barring a sudden commitment to him as a closer by Frank Robinson, I also think Stewart certainly will finish 2003 will double-digit value. Bids at or under the low teens look likely to net you a profit.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Braden Looper		2	13	3.14	1.17	55	28	73	86
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		9		6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	10		14		7		7

As Looper's innings increased from 67.1 to 71 and now 86 IP over the past three years, his walks dropped from 36 to 30 and now 28 BB while his strikeouts increased from 29 to 52 and now 55. Of course he still only managed a 5.8 K/9 last season and his career-worst 1.25 G-F concerns me, but the key to him keeping the closing job away from Tim Spooneybarger is maintaining the 2.3 BB/9 he posted in the second half. Looper isn't a dominant reliever, and he needs solid defensive support to post helpful qualitative marks, however I think he can net enough saves to crack double-digit value. Unfortunately the downside of closing on a team filled with intriguing young right-handed relievers is that he might have more value as trade bait, so stop bidding below the high single-digits to guarantee a profit.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Hammond		7	0	0.95	1.11	63	31	53	76
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		14
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	9		13

The NL Comeback Player of the Year is the newest and more impressive feather in Leo Mazzone's cap, although Hammond hinted at this potential by posting MLE ratios of 7.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and .7 HR/9 in 2002 while splitting the season between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Richmond(IL). However nothing else in his history suggested he'd emerge as the most valuable lefty reliever and third best overall reliever in the game. Now only a 3.7 BB/9, his weak track record, and a move to the Yankees indicates he won't maintain this level of effectiveness, and yet he didn't allow any earned runs after the break while posting a 25:7 K:BB in 31 IP with 22 H. I'll be surprised if Hammond earns less than $5 in 2003 and he could approach this draft value, but I also wouldn't risk more than a few bucks given the questions surrounding him.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis Vizcaino		5	5	2.99	1.05	79	30	55	81.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		13		5		2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	9		13		4

Though he gained three years in agegate, Vizcaino quickly emerged as huge steal for the Brewers as he finished the season as the sixth most valuable reliever in the game. However I suspect we'll some regression in 2003 given his 3.3 BB/9 and .65 G-F. Fortunately he's a dominant reliever who will succeed regardless of support from his teammates, and while I don't expect him to see more than a half-dozen save opportunities, he certainly owns the skills normally necessary to save 30 games. Vizcaino's one of the better middle relievers to target in all of baseball as I see relatively little downside here, and I wouldn't want to let him go for less than a few bucks.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Timlin		4	0	2.98	0.92	50	14	75	96.2
STL/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		13		-2		R
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	8		11		-2

Timlin's signing with Boston ranks as Theo's most questionable move given Timlin's unimpressive skills and statistical history. A career-worst 4.7 K/9 leaves his 1.83 G-F and 1.3 BB/9 as his primary assets, and yet he still posted a 1.4 HR/9 while splitting the season between two relatively friendly pitchers' parks. The good news is that Fenway's suppressed about 20% more homers than Busch or Veterans' Stadium in recent years, leaving Timlin with relatively little downside. He easily could reach both a half-dozen homers and saves, however the logical decline in his qualitative contribution will leave his value around its 2002 level. I don't think bidding more than a few bucks for Timlin is a wise decision due to his age and general inconsistency over his career.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Antonio Alfonseca		2	19	4.00	1.47	61	36	73	74.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		13		24		14
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	8		11		20		15

While I see no obvious skill decline here, Alfonseca struggled badly on the road and during the second half, and the latter problem suggests improved conditioning will increase his effectiveness. The good news is that he posted a career-best 7.4 K/9 and 8.8 H/9, along with a 2.23 G-F that continues Alfonseca's streak of raising his G-F ratio in every year of his career. Unfortunately a 4.4 BB/9 represent the worst control of his career, and he'll need unexpected defensive support to overcome an abundance of walks. He could save anywhere between a half-dozen and three dozen games depending on his effectiveness, alternatives in the bullpen, and Dusty Baker's whims, but I currently have no problem bidding to the low teens since I like the combination of the Cubs' great pitching and poor offense in generating save opportunities.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Williamson		3	8	2.92	1.11	84	36	46	74
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		13		2		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	9		12		2		1

I've seen few evaluations of Williamson that don't include some sort of bizarre qualifier indicating the writer forgot that Williamson closed effectively while winning the Rookie of the Year in 1999. A 10.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 demonstrate he's regained his pre-injury form, and his 8 September saves and a second-half performance of a 1.33 ERA and 44:14 K:BB in 40.2 IP with 22 H and 2 HR illustrates his upside. The odds of Williamson compiling stats that rank somewhere between the 2002 values of Mike Williams and Eric Gagne appear quite high to me, and I can't imagine letting Williamson slide for less than $25. He's a must for mot challenge players and should significantly affect standings in many leagues this season.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Borowski		4	2	2.73	1.18	97	29	84	95.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	8		11

Many of the Cubs' off-season moves make little sense, especially the decision to guarantee more than $10M in 2003 alone to Alfonseca, Remlinger, Veres, Guthrie, and Farnsworth, moves essentially leaving Borowski in a 10-man competition for one or two open slots. As he finished 2002 as the Cubs' most valuable reliever by a significant margin, I find this treatment falling somewhere between questionable and very insulting, especially since his recent minor league numbers indicate his success wasn't a fluke. Borowski hit all the skill minimums we want to see even while nicely improving in the second half. Fortunately for fantasy owners interested in rostering him, the competition in Cubs' camp could let Borowski fall to Dollar Days, where I'd look to roster him even without the ability to easily reserve him.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Remlinger		7	0	1.99	1.12	69	28	48	68
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		10		4		4
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	7		9		4		2

Everyone questioning the Cubs' significant financial commitment to Remlinger seems to ignore his qualifications of consistently finishing among the dozen most valuable relievers in the game over the past few years. While he definitely could slip towards the end of his contract as he approaches 40, I expect little decline in his performance this season, especially since he's moving towards a better pitchers' park in almost every aspect. Unfortunately his control problems after the All-Star Break support my belief that his ERA will wind up closer to his career 3.80 mark than his 1.99 from 2002. Remlinger's still a useful pitcher to draft, but spending more than a couple bucks definitely reduces your otherwise good chance of seeing a profit.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joey Eischen		6	2	1.34	1.14	51	18	43	53.2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		10		-3
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	6		8		-4

He somehow finished the season as Montreal's most valuable reliever, a remarkable accomplishment since he doesn't own an unimpressive track record and spent April at AAA Ottawa(IL). Of course he's posted a 69:14 K:BB in 76.1 IP with 50 H and 6 HR over 45 G at Ottawa during the last two seasons, so his improved command isn't too surprising. I'm concerned that Eischen's walk rate slipped to a 3.5 BB/9 in the second half, but along with his outstanding 3.64 G-F, he only fell a third of an inning short of meeting LPR requirements in every statistic. The emergence of so many solid middle relievers like Eischen, Hammond, and Borowski, who remained available in many of our leagues until the second half, supports the idea of only spending a buck or two on any save elite middlemen. As Eischen easily could fall to the low single digits, I don't consider him a good buy much before Dollar Days.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Worrell		8	0	2.25	1.18	55	30	55	72
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10		1
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	6		8		1

Worrell's value will depend on Felix Rodriguez's team at the end of Spring Training as I'd like Worrell a lot more if he was the only veteran right-hander in Felipe Alou's pen. However a career-low .73 G-F leaves Worrell relatively little value outside of PacBell, which suppresses homers by over 40%, nearly three times as much as any other NL park. He doesn't possess much upside even if Nen suffers further injury problems, so I wouldn't draft him before Dollar Days unless Rodriguez leaves, and I'd still limit bids to a couple bucks under most any circumstances.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Alan Embree		4	2	2.03	1.08	81	20	47	62
SD/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		9		-1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	7		9		0

San Diego spent less than a million on Embree and Steve Reed yet turned them into a couple of very solid prospects after they dominated as Padres for a few months. Embree finished as one of the top 20 relievers in baseball, and he was a logical target for Boston to re-sign given his solid across-the-board skills and a track record indicating intriguing potential dominance. With career-best marks of an 11.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 6.8 H/9, I see little reason why he won't remain one of the better relievers in the game. The problem regarding rostering Embree is the general perception that he's Boston's default closer despite repeated pronouncements of the Red Sox employing a closer-by-committee. His solid skills and quantitative upside make him an acceptable target anywhere in single digits, however I don't see significant saves' upside here, so don't bid into double-digits expecting a Guardado-like season.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The two relievers likely to see the biggest net increase in their values this season are Scott Williamson and Keith Foulke. Both merit significant investments in any league, and only the potential downside of the Great American Ballpark keeps me from recommending Williamson closer to the $30+ I'd allocate for Foulke.