Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV above $20

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Gagne		4	52	1.97	0.86	114	16	55	82.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	39		57		22		3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	36		53		21		9

Our main error in projecting Gagne was the probably unreasonable expectation that LA would move him into the rotation even if he excelled in closing. I suspect most of you know that Gagne instead posting one of the best first halves of any closer in history as he staked his claim to the job for the indefinite future. The only mild problem here is a .80 G-F; he's compiled between a .70 and .90 G-F in each of his four seasons in the majors. Fortunately Dodger Stadium is the best pitchers' park in the majors and suppressed homers by about 6%, making LA about the best place for Gagne to practice his craft. As I don't expect either his role nor superb skills to change this season, Gagne's a solid buy anywhere in the low $30s.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Smoltz		3	55	3.25	1.03	85	24	59	80.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	35		52		34		25
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	32		47		30		22

The only overt surprise in this season is that Smoltz saved about 10 more games than we expected while posting worse qualitative numbers thanks to a non-save situation on April 6th against the Mets when he gave up 8 ER on a 2:2 K:BB and 6 H in .2 IP. Smoltz could have posted a 2.37 ERA and .94 ERA while practically matching Gagne's value without that appearance. He didn't allow a run during 9 September games as he compiled a 1.42 ERA on a 31:8 K:BB in 31.2 IP with 18 H and 0 HR in the second half. His development over the course of the season, combined with his overall dominance for the year, makes Smoltz an easy choice to finish 2003 as the top NL pitcher in 4x4. Feel free to keep bidding up through the mid-$30s if you want the own the best closer in baseball.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Robb Nen		6	43	2.20	1.14	81	20	64	73.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	30		44		31		31
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	27		40		27		25

While Nen underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery immediately following the World Series, he should be at full strength by the beginning of the 2003 regular season. Though his strikeout rate dipped below 10.0 K/9 for only the second time in the last five years, he also posted a 1.32 G-F, his best G-F mark during that period. Perhaps my main concern is that the Giants' pen looks vulnerable for the first time in years with the left-handed relief corps uncertain and Felix Rodriguez probably following Jay Witasick out the door for salary reasons; Nen and Tim Worrell may be the only returning veterans. Fortunately San Francisco doesn't appear adverse to using some of the young AAA guns like Kurt Ainsworth or Jerome Williams in relief, and since I don't expect much fall-off from the Giants' rotation or offense, Nen remains a good buy to $30 for nearly a guaranteed 40 saves.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Byung-Hyun Kim		8	36	2.04	1.07	92	26	64	84
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	29		43		27		16
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	27		40		24		17

I don't see a need for Kim to join Arizona's rotation since John Patterson, Elmer Dessens, and Miguel Batista are a solid 3-4-5 combo, especially considering they follow the two best pitchers in the league. However the odds of him experiencing reasonable success regardless of role seem promising given his 9.9 K/9 and career-best marks of 2.8 BB/9 and 1.70 G-F in 2002. Fortunately the attention given his potential "promotion" makes him far easier to acquire at the draft. Even if he only spends the season in middle relief after a few unimpressive starts, he would have earned $15 without any saves last season. Grab him for anything under $20, though only exceed $20 by even a couple bucks if he looks likely to close for much of the year.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Williams		2	46	2.93	1.22	43	21	54	61.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		40		14		13
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	24		35		12		13

Like Eddie Guardado in the AL, Williams emerged as one of the most unexpected early surprises thanks to 10 saves in April, but then he saved between 6 and 9 saves in each of the other five months of the season. Although 40 saves looks unlikely due to his unimpressive dominance and a second half rise in his walk rate from 2.1 to 4.3 BB/9, Pittsburgh should display an improved offense, solid defense, and an intriguingly deep pitching staff, making Williams a good bet for 35+ saves. While the Pirates should deal him at the trade deadline if they're much below .500, he'll provide about $20 of value through the first four months of the season even without counting the couple bucks he'd earn after moving to middle relief on a contender.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Mesa		4	45	2.97	1.37	64	39	65	75.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		39		28		21
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	24		35		24		18

I can't imagine Mesa will exceed $25 in 2003 even with the Phillies' team-wide improvement. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and G-F ratio all slipped last season as he started showing his age. Forty-five saves also is a lofty total for any pitcher, but even if he somehow saves 40+ games again, don't expect a positive qualitative contribution from him. Mesa's a poor gamble anywhere above the low $20s.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Billy Wagner		4	35	2.52	0.97	88	22	51	75
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	26		39		32		27
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	24		35		28		25

Wagner's fully recovered from his 2000 arm surgery and looks poised to dominate for years. Forty saves seem a likely minimum given the Astros' offensive firepower and young pitching depth, and only the downside of pitching in Houston will prevent Wagner from finishing close to the most valuable roto pitcher in the league. Feel free to bid to $25 under almost any circumstances, and I doubt you'll see a notable loss up to $30.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Jimenez		2	41	3.56	1.19	47	11	76	73.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	25		36		14		14
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	21		31		12		14

Of the fourteen closers with 20+ save opportunities in each of the last three seasons, only Jimenez has posted a G-F over 2.40 in any of those three seasons, and he's managed a 2.88, 3.03, and 3.04 G-F since joining Colorado in 2000. The Rockies therefore seem to own the perfect closer for their team, and while Todd Jones or Steve Reed could close effectively if needed, neither pitcher forces even half as many groundballs as Jimenez. In the second half Jimenez compiled a 21:2 K:BB in 29.2 IP, so even though he's not a particularly dominant reliever, the combination of his command and G-F ratio make him nearly perfectly tailored to his current role. He looks like one of the hidden saves' gems around the game as he never seems to cost more than $15-17 and should hold a value above $20 in 2003. Even with the risk of a mid-season trade, I believe he's worth the risk of bidding at least to the highest teens if you need saves.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Trevor Hoffman		2	38	2.73	1.18	69	18	52	59.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		34		31		30
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	21		31		27		25

Nothing in Hoffman's skills suggested he'd face potentially serious arm problems this off-season, and his .3 HR/9 in particular stands out as emblematic of his solid qualitative performance in 2002. Doctors discovered a frayed labrum during October arthroscopic surgery, and recent reports indicate he might need further work, potentially keeping him out from anywhere between most of Spring Training and the entire season. If drafting tomorrow I'd stop bidding at about $15 on the assumption he'd miss a month or two, however adjust your expectations accordingly with any developments regarding Hoffman's prior to your draft.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Isringhausen		3	32	2.48	0.98	68	18	46	65.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		34		35		25
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	21		30		30		22

While we were correct in expecting he'd improve on his already impressive skills, including career-best marks of 9.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.0 HR/9, a return of Isringhausen's injury troubles led to a disastrous June. In only 9 outings Izzy allowed 8 ER and 12 H despite an 8:3 K:BB in 8.2 IP; he'd own a 1.59 ERA and .86 WHIP if he simply hadn't pitched in June. He finally underwent arthroscopic surgery after the Cardinals lost in the playoffs, and doctors repaired a partially torn labrum, so while we're not too worried about further problems this year, his rehab might not be finished by Opening Day. Of course he also should be near full strength by May, making him an intriguing mid-season trade target. If you're willing to gamble here, consider pushing Izzy at least to the high teens even if he hasn't pitched in a game by your draft since he owns the skills necessary to emerge as one of the top relievers in the game.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Danny Graves		7	32	3.19	1.26	58	25	99	98.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		34		21		17
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	20		30		18		12

Cincinnati's decision to gives Graves a three-year deal for $17.25M ranks with the most mind-boggling moves in 2003, especially since they're counting on him to replace Elmer Dessens as their ace even though Graves has started only 7 of the 511 games he's pitched professionally. Only his 2.20 G-F and seemingly solid control make him a decent gamble since he's never demonstrated much dominance in relief. However with the Reds' new home looking like a great hitters' park, the higher injury risk Graves faces as his innings increase, and the Reds' mediocre defense, bidding more than a couple bucks on Graves seems unwise.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Armando Benitez		1	33	2.27	1.05	79	25	46	67.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		33		26		26
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	21		30		23		22

Benitez remains one of the more extreme high-risk, high-upside closers available since pitching half his games in Shea Stadium is about all that limits the potential damage of his .65 G-F. Fortunately his career-best 3.3 BB/9 negates most of the concerns I harbor regarding his career-low 10.6 K/9, and I'm also pleased that he improved as the year progressed. As the Mets should rebound after last year's disaster, I expect Benitez to finish with around 40 saves, although any slippage in his qualitative numbers will keep his value around its current level. Don't gamble more than $25 on the likelihood of across-the-board improvement.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Thanks to catching a Thursday night showing of Daredevil we can provide an early review for our readers. While we entered the theater with rather low overall expectations considering our disappointment with Spider-Man, the entire film lived up to the promise of the story and fantastic supporting cast of Jennifer Garner(Elektra), Michael Clarke Duncan(Wilson Fisk), Colin Farrell(Bullseye), Jon Favreau(Foggy), and Joe Pantoliano(Ben Urich). Stan the Man (Lee, not Musial) showed up as always, and not only did they offer props to DD writers Frank Miller, Roger McKenzie, and Brian Michael Bendis, but Miller even cameod. Kevin Smith found a few seconds of screen time as a lab assistant named Jack Kirby, and the producers even paid credit to DD artist John Romita early in the flick.

Outside of the solid acting and welcome homages, I feel this film remains truer to the spirit of the DD plots and history far more than either the Spider-Man or X-Men movies. Though Ben Affleck isn't a perfect choice for the lead, the chemistry of the whole cast outweighs any minor complaints regarding individual casting.

Daredevil certainly falls under the same genre as normal superhero movies, and it's fairly dark for a Valentine's Day release. However I have no problem ranking it only behind the Tim Burton Batmans in the pantheon of comic adaptations. The movie contains ample amounts of everything necessary to appeal to couples this weekend, and my only suggestion if you plan to see it is to avoid presenting red roses to anyone seeing Daredevil with you.