Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV below $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

168.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Smith		0	0	6.62	1.78	16	20	43	35.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Smith.

169.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Erik Sabel		0	0			0	0	2	0
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-6

While Sabel didn't display particularly impressive skills during the 2001 season, he demonstrated good control and a respectable G-F ratio while spending the majority of the season in Arizona's pen. He returned to Tucson(PCL) this year and compiled a 4.32 ERA on a 46:19 K:BB in 66.2 IP with 67 H and 7 HR, yet Arizona still waived him in July. Detroit claimed him, let him pitch to two batters, and then sent him to Toledo, where he struggled in 14 appearances with a 7:4 K:BB in 11 innings. Sabel joins the dozens of pitchers in Rays' camp with year, and while he appears to possess the skills necessary to succeed in the majors, he's not worth rostering unless he's holding promising ratios after several appearances.

170.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adam Bernero		4	0	6.20	1.56	69	31	128	101.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-4

After shooting to the majors only fifteen months after signing as a non-drafted free agent in 1999 on the strength of superb command and control, Bernero's split the last two seasons between AAA Toledo(IL) and the Tigers. His 1.58 ERA on a 49:13 K:BB in 57 IP with 46 H and 2 HR over 9 starts at Toledo in 2002 indicates he should remain in the majors indefinitely, leaving me baffled by his poor marks in Detroit. Career norms of a 1.29 G-F and 1.5 HR/9 don't appear to reconcile, especially considering his minor league numbers and Detroit's status as the park with the lowest homer rate in the league; the decision to bring the left field fence much closer to home plate certainly hurts Bernero. Of course he should succeed in any role with a 42:22 K:BB in 64.1 IP over 11 GS and a 27:9 K:BB in 37.1 IP over 17 G in relief, making the Tigers' defense, third worst in the majors in 2002, an obvious culprit for his problems. Only improved support from his teammates and a lower homer rate stand between Bernero and significant value, so if you can keep him reserved as necessary, Bernero looks like a very promising Dollar Days gamble.

171.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Colby Lewis		1	0	6.29	1.98	28	26	42	34.1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		-2
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-6		-3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Texas Prospects for comments on Lewis.

172.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Kent		0	1	5.65	1.83	41	38	67	57.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-4		-6		-1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6		-2

He looked like one of the more likely Rule 5 picks to stick and succeed after compiling a 2.20 ERA on a 73:34 K:BB in 65.1 IP with 50 H and 2 HR over 51 G at A+ San Bernardino(Cal) in 2001, and despite skipping the upper minors completely, he managed a 7.2 K/9, .9 HR/9, and 1.03 G-F. Even his 6.0 BB/9 and 10.5 H/9 aren't too horrible considering he belonged in AA, leaving Kent nicely set to spend 2003 in AAA before a September call-up and 2004 Major League bullpen job. I don't know what fever caused Rays' management to try to sneak him through waivers, but in a smugly ironic move, Seattle claimed their former prospect off waivers, netting 50K an extra space on a AA staff for essentially loaning Kent to Tampa for a year. Kent should be ready to join the Mariners' pen by the time Norm Charlton breaks down later in the summer, and while he's not worth a minor league pick, feel free to employ him as roster filler assuming his AAA skills look solid.

173.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Makoto Suzuki		0	0	9.00	1.95	15	17	24	21
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-7

Though Suzuki's 46:21 K:BB in 53.2 IP with 63 H and 6 HR at AAA Omaha(PCL) indicates some upside as a reliever, he's performed poorly regardless of role over the last few years. Suzuki headed to North America after he turned 17 without every playing professionally in Japan. After signing with the Orix Blue Wave in November he'll spend his first season back across the Pacific, so not only won't he contribute to any fantasy teams here this year, I doubt he'll return to the States for a couple seasons after only posting an ERA below 5.96 once during six years in the majors.

174.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sean Douglass		0	0	6.08	1.74	44	35	58	53.1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		-1		R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-6		-1		1

After an unimpressive 5.9 K/9 during his first year at AA Bowie(EL) in 2000, Douglass somehow managed 3.49 ERA on 156:61 K:BB in 162.1 IP with 160 H and 13 HR following a promotion to AAA Rochester(IL). He returned to Rochester for half of last season, managing a 71:35 K:BB in 66.2 IP with 66 H and 4 HR when not in Baltimore for either his two-month spring audition or a pre-September call-up. Unfortunately he didn't improve in the fall following his two summer months in Rochester, and he both struggled as a starter, compiling a 32:24 K:BB in 40 IP with 49 H and 9 HR over 8 GS, and as a reliever, posting a fluke 2.03 ERA on a 12:11 K:BB in 13.1 IP with 9 H and 1 HR. Baltimore's winter shopping leaves them with seven starters and five relievers essentially promised roster spots, so despite the success of Douglass and John Stephens at AAA, along with the pending promotions of Steve Bechler and Eric DuBose, I don't see space for any of these youngsters with the Orioles. Only injuries or surprisingly poor Spring Training performances will create space for these guys, and Douglass will need to demonstrate solid skills in the majors before I'll risk rostering him.

175.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Farnsworth		2	0	5.79	1.84	28	29	100	70
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8		-5
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		-7		-5		R

While Detroit erred in not keeping Joe Valentine on their roster, holding onto Farnsworth as their other Rule 5 pick could benefit them in a year or two since he barely looked ready for AAA in 2002. His only promising marks this year were a 1.53 G-F and .8 HR/9, though his 3.7 BB/9 was much better than the walk rates of most Rule 5 picks. Farnsworth posted a 113:14 K:BB in 155.1 IP with 182 H and 10 HR at AA San Antonio(TL) in 2001, and I expect he'll build upon his performance over the past two seasons while spending most of this year at AAA Toledo(IL) even though I doubt he'll post PDV any time soon.

176.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jerrod Riggan		2	0	7.64	2.15	22	18	53	33
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8		1		R
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-5		-7		1		R

Riggan looked like a potential closer to us a year ago, however the worst defense in the majors destroyed his qualitative numbers thanks to a 14.5 H/9. Unsurprisingly he continued excelling in the minors, posting a 2.38 ERA on a 37:11 K:BB in 45.1 IP with 40 H and 3 HR at AAA Buffalo(IL). I suspect Cleveland recognizes that Riggan doesn't deserve all the responsibility for his 7.64 ERA, and with only Danys Baez, Mark Wohlers, Terry Mulholland, and probably Carl Sadler guaranteed bullpen spots, Riggan will battle David Riske, Jose Santiago, and a dozen other pitchers for three openings. Don't risk rostering him unless he's holding solid skills after more than a month in the majors, however his statistical history indicates a promising future as long as he receives even average defensive support.

177.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Blake Stein		0	1	7.91	1.84	42	27	59	46.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8		4		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-5		-7		5		1

Stein's combination of questionable control and a consistent flyball tendency leaves Kauffman Stadium the second worst home park for him after only Coors Field. Despite reasonable dominance he hasn't displayed adequate command during any of his five seasons in the majors, and I don't expect he'll find much more success after joining Tampa's essentially open tryout this spring. While I see a slight chance he could reemerge as a valuable veteran in similar fashion to Jay Witasick now that he's escaped Kansas City, I doubt Stein even will approach PDV in 2003.

178.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jesus Colome		2	0	8.27	2.15	33	33	56	41.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-10		2		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-6		-9		2		2

I suspect Colome's within two seasons of emerging as a viable closer candidate given his 30:13 K:BB in 29 IP with 18 H and 1 HR performance at AAA Durham(IL) and his developing dominance in the majors. While most of his skills declined in his second year with Tampa and he pitched worse after spending much of the summer in Durham, at least Colome's strikeout raise rose from 5.7 to 7.2 K/9. Unfortunately I don't see enough evidence to recommend him in most leagues, but consider spending a buck here if you have the flexibility of a deep reserve list since there's a decent chance he'll look like a great keeper at a dollar by 2004.

179.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Charles Nagy		1	0	8.88	1.83	22	13	76	48.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-7		-10		-5
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	-6		-10		-5

San Diego faces far better odds in rehabilitating Jaret Wright into a productive pitcher than Nagy since the latter continues trying to pitch despite the loss of nearly all the cartilage in his elbow. Moving from the Indians to Padres leaves Nagy with a more favorable stadium despite an equally poor defense, however although he still possesses very control, no other skill here that suggests he'll see return to even a reasonable level of success. I can't envision anything but potentially severe damage to your qualitative stats if you roster Nagy.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Pitchers at this level of "value" appear to fall into three categories. Mike Smith, Colby Lewis, Steve Kent, Jeff Farnsworth, and Jesus Colome all arrived in the majors without sufficient development time. Erik Sabel, Adam Bernero, Sean Douglass, and Jerrod Riggan appear ready for the majors but haven't displayed consistently effective skills. Finally, Mac Suzuki, Chuck Nagy, and even Blake Stein have received plenty of chances to succeed, and while Stein might someday emerge as a decent reliever, I don't see a promising fantasy future for Suzuki or Nagy; keep them off your teams indefinitely.