Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

157.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Perisho		0	0	8.71	2.13	3	6	16	10.1
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-4		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-5		-4

Perisho displayed some upside as a starter as recently as 1999 with AAA Oklahoma, however as he also led the Pacific Coast League in walks, his control problems in the majors shouldn't have surprised anyone. Yet not only has his formerly impressive dominance faltered while his walk rate increased, but he's allowed a .920 OPS over the last three years even without displaying any noticeable platoon split. Detroit left him at AAA Toledo(IL) most of last season, where he posted a 44:19 K:BB in 66 IP with 62 H and 4 HR over 51 G. Unfortunately neither his walk nor strikeout rate indicates he's ready for a return to the big leagues, so while he faces unimpressive competition in trying to break camp with the Devil Rays, I don't expect him to succeed during any time he spends in the majors this year.

158.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Reynaldo Garcia		0	0	31.50	4.00	2	1	7	2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-5

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Texas Prospects for comments on Garcia.

159.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bob Wells		2	0	5.90	1.62	30	16	78	58
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		2
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-5		2		R

Wells pitched 50 or more innings in each of the past eight innings, and only in 1999 and 2000 did he managed an ERA below 5.10, managing a 3.81 and then 3.65 ERA. While his strikeout, walk, and homer rates remained remarkably inconsistent during his time in the majors, the primary difference in his two overly helpful roto seasons was a hit rate under 8.4; his hit rate was above 9.4 in the other six years. He seems very likely to win a job in a very unstable Tampa pen, unfortunately I don't believe he'll receive improved defensive support with the Rays. As Wells even lacks the dominance to emerge as a closer candidate, I suspect we'll see him around this value level again after 2003.

160.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Frederick		0	0	10.03	1.97	5	10	13	11.2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Minnesota Prospects for comments on Frederick.

161.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sterling Hitchcock		1	0	5.49	1.83	31	15	57	39.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		-2		4
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-3		-6		-1		2

While Hitchcock's salary is rather high for a middle reliever, I see little justification for viewing him as a reasonable competitor for starts on the Yankees over Alex Graman, Dave Walling, or anyone else producing at AAA Columbus. During 16 appearances out of the bullpen he compiled a 6.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 1.2 HR/9, and only poor defensive support kept his ERA close to 5.00. In comparison, Mike Stanton compiled a 5.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and .5 HR/9, suggesting that Hitchcock and left specialist Randy Choate looked like a decent lefty reliever corps even prior to the Chris Hammond signing. Hammond's presence keeps Hitchcock in a middle or long relief instead of a setup role, and since I don't expect his back problems to recur, he's in good position to post decent qualitative numbers while winning a half-dozen or more games. Spending a buck or two here could earn you a nice profit.

162.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dustin Hermanson		1	0	7.77	1.91	13	7	35	22
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		6		5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-4		8		6

Having not demonstrated decent skills in four seasons, I doubt Hermanson will see more than a couple starts with St. Louis barring another horrendous round of injuries in the Cardinals' rotation. Fortunately for prospective Hermanson owners, I believe he'll find much more success in the bullpen. He spent most of last season on the DL due to first a groin strain and then a staph infection in his left elbow that developed from a cut sustain when he slipped and fell at his home. I see no reason he shouldn't begin Spring Training at full strength, and since he's prospered as a closer in the past, he should thrive in tandem with Joey Hamilton as veteran set-up men under Dave Duncan's tutelage. Risking a Dollar Days' selection seems unwise given his recently poor track record, but you should consider rostering him if he's demonstrating solid skills by the end of April.

163.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jack Cressend		0	0	5.91	1.84	22	19	40	32
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		14		1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-6		13

Along with Jose Acevedo, Cressend finished the season a little behind Derek Lowe as one of our most spectacularly inaccurate projections. Instead of stealing the closer's job from Eddie Guardado, Cressend displayed little skill over the first couple months before he straining his right shoulder in June. No one discovered his partially-torn labrum until September, so Cressend's fall surgery leaves him questionable for Spring Training. I'm not sure why Cleveland bothered adding him on waivers as I don't expect he'll positive contribute before the second half of 2003, however Cressend's great 2001 performance indicates he owns the skills necessary to succeed in the majors. Don't bother drafting him now, but remain ready to add him as soon as he's healthy and pitching effectively in a mostly unimpressive Indians' pen.

164.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Rincon		0	0	6.28	1.85	21	9	44	28.2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-5

The only downside to Rincon's relatively consistent march through the Twins' system is that his skills have slipped slightly after he reached each new level. Yet while I'm not overly impressed with his 4.78 ERA on 75:35 K:BB in 101.2 IP with 111 H and 12 HR over 16 GS(19G) at AAA Edmonton(PCL), his skills still were decent and he remained reasonably effective despite pitching in a great hitters' park. Rincon only posted a poor ERA in the majors thank to an abundance of hits, and his 12:3 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 7 G out of the pen indicates nice immediate upside. The only obstacle Rincon faces to breaking camp with the team is Minnesota's abundant pitching depth. Six starters, Radke, Milton, Reed, Mays, Lohse, and Santana, are assured lineup slots, as are the late-inning corps of Guardado, Hawkins, and Romero. We expect the Twins to take two right-handers to supplement this excellent core group, including either Mike Fetters or Jose Cabrera as the veteran righty, and Rincon, Grant Balfour, Kevin Frederick, or even possibly Adam Johnson to continue working young players into their staff. Now the odds of one or more of the youngsters struggling seem high, however I expect at least one of them to emerge in similar style to J.C. Romero. Feel free to roster any of these guys, especially Rincon since he has the most experience in the majors, as long as they're holding a low walk rate

165.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Holtz		2	0	5.40	2.06	26	30	42	35
OAK/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		-5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-5		-5

The least valuable and lowest ranked of Oakland's former Three Blind Mikes lefty reliever corps, Holtz owns the best skills yet also lost his job first. He only turned 30 in October, and the only obvious problem I see in his skills is an atrocious 7.7 walk rate. Unfortunately he also doesn't dominate lefties and normally slumps in the second half, reducing his usefulness as anything other than a middle reliever. Though Holtz easily could fix his control problem and returning to more prominent role in someone's pen, I wouldn't risk rostering him until he's demonstrated promising skills for a few weeks. Since he joined one of the bigger cadres of veteran pitchers by signing with Pittsburgh, we also shouldn't see him spending much time in the majors this year unless the Pirates trade Sauerbeck.

166.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Beverlin		0	0	8.69	1.83	16	9	27	19.2
CLE/DET		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Beverlin.

167.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Flores		0	1	7.45	1.93	14	16	40	29
TEX/COL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-5

Flores split the season between Texas and Colorado, and I'm surprised either team used him in the majors given his limited AAA experience. In 2001 he compiled a 14-6 record and 2.78 ERA on a 115:63 K:BB in 158.2 IP with 156 H and 13 HR at AA Norwich(EL), however given his age and questionable command, I approve of a move to the bullpen. However due to their frequent rotation openings, Colorado let him start at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL), where he posted a 3.28 ERA on a 27:18 K:BB in 35.2 IP with 36 H and 1 HR over 7 GS, a sharp contrast in nearly every way to the 16:5 K:BB in 20.1 IP with 22 H and 1 HR he registered with AAA Oklahoma(PCL). About the only positives I see here are decent dominance and a 1.79 G-F in the majors, and since the Rockies have Brian Fuentes and Vic Darensbourg as veteran lefty relievers, I hope Flores receives the development time he apparently requires. Don't consider him for your team, especially if he remains with Colorado.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I discussed Rick Helling back on January 29th, concluding "I'd price him around $5 given these respectable skills, however he drops to roster filler in a bandbox". Yesterday Helling signed with Baltimore, and he only could emerge as a decent sleeper if he unexpectedly pitches his way off the team, a possibly considering he's competing with Jason Johnson, Pat Hentgen, Scott Erickson, and John Stephens for only two open rotation spots. Thanks to the Orioles' short-sighted decision to push home plate closer to the fences last season, Camden Yards allowed 16% more homers than the AL average, moving from a pitchers' park to the 5th best park for homers in the league. While we only have one year of data under the new alignment, Camden ranks as the fifth best park for homers in all of baseball compared to multiple years of data for the other stadiums. As Helling's only significant problem is a high homer rate, his only worst choices were Coors, Comiskey, Cincinnati, and Texas. I currently expect him to slip to a few dollars below zero barring extremely unexpected skill development from Helling.