Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV of $1

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jay Powell		3	0	3.44	1.49	35	24	50	49.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		5
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1		4		1

Powell's 2.2 K:BB in 1997 was his only year above a 2.0 K:BB in his career, and while he's suffered from health problems in two of the past three seasons, he also hasn't exceeded a 1.7 K:BB in that time. Thankfully he's developed into a groundball pitcher over the last two years, and a 2.07 G-F increases his value while pitching in Texas. A 6.3 K:BB also indicates reasonable dominance, yet I'm concerned about an increase in his walk rate from 3.7 to 4.3 BB/9 in 2002. So although I see some solid skills here, Texas' ever-increasing bullpen depth make Powell appear relatively useless as more than roster filler.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Franklyn German		1	1	0.00	0.75	6	2	3	6.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	0		0

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on German.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Yorkis Perez		0	1	3.29	1.28	25	14	21	27.1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	1		0

Despite the Dodgers' lack of solid lefty relievers, I don't expect Perez to see much time in the majors this year unless Pedro Borbon and Wilson Alvarez hit the DL. Before Baltimore promoted him Perez posted a 3.79 ERA on a 44:20 K:BB in 40.1 IP with 42 H and 4 HR over 28 games at AAA Rochester(IL), so he still suffers from questionable command, the same problem that's limited his upside for all of his 20-year professional career. However he's held left-handers to a .665 OPS over the past three years when in the majors, and since Los Angeles only needs one specialist to replace Jesse Orosco thanks to their solid right-handed corps, he could see up to 30 IP with the Dodgers. He's not worth drafting since his .86 G-F and 4.6 BB/9 negate the upside of his 8.2 K/9, but he's acceptable roster filler for brief periods as long as the Dodgers play most of their games at home when he's active.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sun-Woo Kim		3	0	4.74	1.34	29	14	52	49.1
BOS/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	1		0

Kim spent time with Boston, AAA Pawtucket(IL), AAA Ottawa(IL), and Montreal, but he posted much better numbers during his 15 AAA starts, where he went 7-2 on a 65:32 K:BB in 89 IP with 63 H and 6 HR. Neither his 6.6 K/9 nor a 3.2 BB/9 are particularly promising marks for a 25-year-old minor league starter, and his 14:11 K:BB in 37.1 IP with 43 H and 3 HR over 7 Major League starts don't assuage my doubts. Yet he's compiled a 42:24 K:BB in 53.2 IP with 63 H and 3 HR over 32 games in relief, suggesting his best hope for immediate success is to remain in the bullpen. I see nothing here that indicates notable upside, making him too risky to own in a rotation and no better than roster filler as a reliever.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kelly Wunsch		2	0	3.41	1.42	22	19	26	31.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		1		3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		3

Wunsch looks nicely recovered from the arm surgery he needed after the White Sox used him in a league-high 83 games in 2000. Of course he's still never displayed consistently good command above AA, so only success as a specialist justifies his place in the majors, especially since Damaso Marte is Chicago's primary lefty. Fortunately Wunsch posted a 2.55 G-F ratio, and since he also held lefties to a .587 OPS, he has value to the Sox in his currently role. However I'm baffled as to why Jerry Manuel allowed him to face over 50 right-handed batters considering Wunsch allowed them to post a .908 OPS, making a fantasy selection of Wunsch a poor choice given his necessarily limited role.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Danny Kolb		3	1	4.22	1.53	20	22	27	32
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0

He looked like a real prospect after posting a 127:60 K:BB in 126 IP as a starter...back in 1996 in the Sally League. Kolb converted to relief in 1999 and almost immediately suffered a series of arm troubles that left him on the DL for much of the last three seasons. Yet despite his very poor control in the majors, he's compiled a 39:12 K:BB in 37.1 IP over his last two stints at AAA, suggesting he qualifies as a AAAA pitcher. Unfortunately Texas has guaranteed bullpen spots to Urbina, Yan, Cordero, Powell, Van Poppel, and a lefty like Aaron Fultz, thereby placing Kolb in competition with Rudy Seanez, Rule 5 pick John Koronka, and anyone like Rob Bell or Doug Davis that fails to make the rotation. Expecting Kolb to pitch more than two-dozen innings of negligible fantasy impact seems overly optimistic given the competition he faces and his questionable Major League skills; Texas doesn't need a right specialist

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Fyhrie		2	0	4.44	1.36	29	20	46	48.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		-2
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	0		0		-2

After spending 2002 as Oakland's 12th pitcher on call from AAA Sacramento(PCL) when the A's needed an extra arm, Fyhrie joined Philadelphia for this season and stands a good chance of spending most of 2003 in the major filling a similar swingman role. He compiled a 7-2 record and 2.33 ERA on a 68:23 K:BB in 77.1 IP with 61 H and 4 HR over 13 starts in the minor, so he's perfectly prepared to either start or relieve in the majors, and I believe he'll succeed in the NL despite his questionable command with Oakland. Although he's only compiled impressive Major League stats with Anaheim in 2000, he shouldn't hurt you as roster filler and could earn a few bucks if you grab him in Dollar Days.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Felix Heredia		1	0	3.61	1.47	31	26	51	52.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		0
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0		0

Heredia only needs a trade of Gabe White to virtually insure he'll remain Cincy's primary lefty reliever in 2003. However his WHIP is a much better barometer of his future success than his ERA as Heredia's only now moving into the correct role for his talents. Chicago attempted to shoehorn him into a specialist even though he demonstrated roughly the same effectiveness against all opponents. Toronto thankfully let him remain in a traditional middle relief role, yet his control deteriorated and he demonstrated little upside. Even if he spends most of this season in the majors, I don't expect positive value from Heredia given his current skills, making him an unwise selection for fantasy owners.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dennis Cook		1	0	3.38	1.29	13	10	21	24
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		-2
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	0		-1		-2

Anaheim left Cook off the playoff roster even though he rehabbed his torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff rather than undergo mid-season surgery. While he hasn't officially retired, the combination of his rapidly declining skills and serious arm injury will prevent him from earning PDV in 2003, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's finished playing professionally.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
B.J. Ryan		2	1	4.68	1.46	56	33	51	57.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		3		3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		3		R

I've employed Ryan fairly often when I needed short-term roster filler over the last couple years since his career 9.3 K/9 gives him intriguing upside. Unfortunately a 5.5 career walk rate limits that upside to the point where he's unlikely to earn more than a buck or two until his control improves. I suspect he could approach double-digit value if Baltimore kept Ryan away from calendars and convinced him that Opening Day was the first game after the break, since in the last three years, he's compiled a 2.99 ERA on a 70:30 K:BB in 75.1 IP with 52 H and 6 HR in the second half. He's essentially undraftable due to his 6.69 ERA on an 81:64 K:BB in 78 IP in the first half over the same three seasons, however he's a great mid-season pick-up if you need an extra middle reliever.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Paronto		0	0	4.04	1.26	23	11	34	35.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0

The 124th and last AL pitcher to earn PDV in 2002, Paronto missed the last three months of the season with a strained right forearm. While I'm unaware of any lingering injury problem, Paronto has not displayed consistently solid command since reaching AA in 1998. He owns enough talent where I'd feel comfortable employing him if he's in the majors when I need roster filler, but he's not someone to target in the spring. Don't consider him for your team until he demonstrates both good health and acceptable skills.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The number of lefty relievers discussed here over the last couple days seems rather surprising given their relative lack of skill in general. However the limited sample size of specialist relievers increases the likelihood of any given lefty specialist earning positive value in a given year. Of course there's no guarantee almost any of these pitchers will earn PDV in 2003, and you'll see much better results by trusting pitchers with better skills even if they suffered from poor qualitative stats last year than you will by just targeting random middle relievers with 2002 PDV.