Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV of $2 and $3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Willis Roberts		5	1	3.36	1.48	51	32	79	75
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		1		9
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	3		4		1		6

Roberts successfully converted to the bullpen at the end of 2001, when he posted a 3.03 ERA on a 27:11 K:BB in 29.2 IP with 31 H and 5 HR, and he wouldn't have struggled as Baltimore's closer. However Jorge Julio obviously has more upside thanks to his age, and Roberts can pitch two innings fairly easily, thereby increasing his value in middle relief. He struggled with his command everywhere in 2002 even as the Orioles' second half disaster helped torpedo his WHIP, although a 6.1 K/9 is decent and a 3.8 BB/9 isn't too bad; his 1.61 G-F also limited his downside. While I don't expect Roberts to exceed $5 thanks to his lack of dominance and the Orioles' general malaise, he also won't hurt you as a Dollar Days pick.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rick Bauer		6	1	3.98	1.43	45	36	84	83.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		-1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	3		4		-1

Terrorists apparently kidnapped Bauer's command in 2002 as he'd never fallen below a 1.8 K:BB until last season's 1.3 K:BB. Even though general improvement in the second half increases his immediate upside, Bauer remains at risk to continue suffering poor qualitative numbers without an improved defense behind him. We also don't know how his numbers will change if he doesn't remain in relief as few teams keep five relievers who each pitched 50+ IP in 50+ G for two consecutive seasons. Without reversing his reduced dominance, the odds remain high that an extended outing in a blowout will feel like the longest day of Rick Bauer's life.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Julio Santana		3	0	2.84	1.35	38	28	49	57
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	3		4

A qualified AAAA pitcher, Santana normally experiences some success regardless of his role even though he rarely demonstrates consistent command. The major reason he managed PDV in 2002 for the first time in years was the benefit from pitching in Comerica; his ERA jumped from 1.35 to 4.15 on the road. Santana's second half saw him improve to a 2.38 ERA on a 15:8 K:BB in 22.2 IP, yet a partial ligament tear ended his season in early August even though he didn't require surgery. Normally I'd advise against drafting anyone with a muscle tear, but he posted a 2.63 ERA on a 14:3 K:BB in 13.2 IP with 8 H and 0 HR allowed over 10 games in the Dominican Winter League, suggesting he wouldn't hurt you as a Dollar Days pick if he breaks camp with the Tigers.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Schoeneweis		9	1	4.88	1.42	65	49	119	118
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	3		4		5		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	3		4		5		1

Schoeneweis compiled the worst ERA of anyone who pitched for Anaheim in the playoffs, so hopefully he realizes that only the lack of Major League-ready left-handers in the Angels' system let him avoid a December non-tender. He couldn't even dominate in April as usual before descending into mediocrity, and Anaheim's starting pitching depth will keep Schoeneweis in the bullpen, especially as he posted a 3.25 ERA on a 21:9 K:BB in 27.2 IP with 23 H and 5 HR over 39 games in relief. Holding left-handers to a .609 OPS gives him significant value as a specialist, so even though his .834 OOPS vs. righties is troubling, you could gamble a buck or two here without much risk as long as you can cut Schoeneweis if his role changes.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Willie Banks		2	1	3.23	1.18	26	14	32	39
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		-2
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	2		3		-3

Though Banks finally developed after spending a couple years in Japan, he returned to the States as no more than decent bullpen filler. A 1.44 G-F, coupled with respectable offensive and defensive support, makes him perfectly usable when he's in the majors, but Banks may own less upside than any other Boston pitcher besides John Burkett.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Mecir		6	1	4.26	1.43	53	29	68	67.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	3		4		3		4
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	3		3		3		2

Mecir looked prime to move into the closer's role after 2001 before the A's added first Koch and now Keith Foulke. So instead of heading towards the $20 range, Mecir fell close to $0 as his strikeout rate dropped from 8.7 to 7.1 K/9 and his hit rate jumped from 7.7 to 9.0 H/9. The emergence of Chad Bradford and acquisition of Ricardo Rincon had already left Mecir as a questionable pick in 2003 even before he tore his left patellar tendon in December. Now he's out until at least May, making him no more than a mildly interesting Dollar Days pick as long as you can DL him without losing any reserve roster space.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Grimsley		4	1	3.91	1.42	59	37	64	71.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		0		R
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	3		4		1		R

Grimsley finally matured into a quality reliever after joining Kansas City in 2001. He's posted G-F ratios of 3.30 and 3.27 over the last two years, and his strikeout rate increased from 6.8 to 7.4 K/9 in 2002. However his walk rate jumped from 3.1 to 4.7 BB/9 thanks to a few random injuries in the first half that left him with a 23:21 K:BB in 32 IP. Fortunately he posted a 2.98 ERA on a 36:16 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 36 H and 3 HR after the All-Star break, and he'll deserve the closer's job if he can maintain those skills. Given the 2002 performances of his prospective teammates, I don't see a better late-inning option for Kansas City, leaving Grimsley as the only Royal reliever currently worth more than a buck.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Nelson		3	2	3.94	1.38	55	27	36	45.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		8		4
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	3		3		8		5

After again proving himself by compiling a 2.61 ERA on a 40:17 K:BB in 31 IP with 19 H and 2 HR after the All-Star break, Nelson's sole problem should be remaining healthy. Of course we don't expect him to suffer from more bone chip in his elbow in 2003, so there's little reason why he shouldn't pitch 65+ innings. I'm growing a little concerned about a G-F ratio that has nosedived from 1.82 to .50 since 1999, however playing in Seattle reduces the downside of flyballs given both the advantages of Safeco and the Mariners' fleet outfield. Nelson's a safe choice for a buck or two who should approach double-digit value if he can vulture several wins.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Jackson		2	0	3.27	1.31	29	13	59	55
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		1		8
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	2		2		1

Jackson's strikeout rate fell from 6.0 to 4.8 K/9 even as his walk rate decreased from 2.9 to 2.1 BB/9, indicating that he still retains most of his ability despite the loss of dominance. While the biggest surprise in his stats is that his homer rate plummeted to .8 after two seasons at 1.4+ HR/9, his 1.04 G-F and past G-F history suggest we'll see a 1.0+ HR/9 in 2003. I'm also quite concerned that his OBA jumped from .250 to .338 in the second half, however leaving the American League for Arizona should give him a generally easier task. Jackson's not a bad Dollar Days pick if he breaks camp with the Diamondbacks as we expect, however he turned 38 in December, and in consideration of his lower strikeout rate and likely homer rate increase, I don't view him as more than roster filler.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Mullen		4	0	3.15	1.33	21	13	40	40
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	2		3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	2		2

Mullen's probably the only pitcher under 35 guaranteed an Opening Day roster spot with Kansas City even though he allowed a higher OPS to left-handers(.762) than right-handers(.692). However the difference is entirely due to letting left-handers hit three extra home runs; he also held lefties to a .301 OBP, nicely below his .341 mark vs. right-handers. His main problem is his obvious lack of dominance, and though a 1.48 G-F protects him against the worst effects of Kauffman Stadium, he'll need to maintain this 2.9 or lower walk rate to continue earning any positive roto value. I don't see any immediate upside in drafting Mullen.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bob Howry		3	0	4.19	1.28	45	21	67	68.2
CHW/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	2		3		-1		4
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	2		3		-1		3

Over the last three seasons Howry's roughly maintained his effectiveness against right-handers by keeping their OPS between .720 and .780, but after holding lefties to a .468 OPS in 2000, he's allowed left-handers to post an .815+ OPS in each of the last two years. However his command generally improved after leaving the White Sox as Howry compiled a 14:4 K:BB in 18 innings with Boston. Aside from his emergence into an apparent right-handed specialist, I'm also concerned over his decreasing dominance; his strikeout rate dropped from 7.6 in 2000 to 5.9 K/9 last season even as his G-F fell from a career-best 1.05 to a career-worst .68 G-F over the same three seasons. So though I don't see any obvious downside to drafting Howry for a buck or two, I don't expect him to significantly contribute to any fantasy teams in 2003.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Lou Pote		0	0	3.22	1.17	32	26	33	50.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		4
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		4

Anaheim waived Pote in mid-January to allow him to sign with Hanshin in Japan. Pote wound up starting seven games in AAA even before he completely lost his place on the Angels thanks to the emergence of Brendan Donnelly and KRod; only a fantastic 5.9 hit rate allowed him to hold a sub-4.00 ERA in the majors. Of course even a career-worst 1.88 G-F is still fairly good, and he could easily rediscover his command in Japan. However there's nothing particularly impressive about Pote's current numbers that would leave him as more than roster filler even if he'd stayed on this side of the Atlantic.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rocky Biddle		3	1	4.06	1.43	64	39	72	77.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	3		3		-2

Montreal ostensibly acquired Biddle to compete for their open 5th starter's slot, yet I see little evidence he belongs in the majors. Since reaching Chicago in 2000 he's posted a 5.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 170 innings as a starter and a 6.7 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 59 innings out of the bullpen. The White Sox rushed him through the system after selecting him with the 51st pick in the 1997 draft, and he hasn't even spent a full season in the upper minors. Now I'm pleased with his 1.67 G-F and 7.4 K/9 in 2002, however I definitely believe he needs a few months starting at AAA to determine his proper role. He's not a good fantasy pick until he demonstrates decent command above AA even though he still holds respectable long-term upside.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dan Plesac		3	1	4.21	1.24	41	18	27	36.1
TOR/PHI		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		3		2		1
2002 Age: 40	5x5:	2		2		2		R

Plesac put off retirement for another year to return as Philadelphia's second veteran lefty in their suddenly well-funded playoff push. He turned 41 on Tuesday, and while he's posted a strikeout rate of 9.7 or better for the last seven seasons, he also hasn't managed a G-F ratio above 1.05 over that same period. Someone needs to instruct Larry Bowa that Plesac should never face right-handers as he allowed a .917 OPS against them in 2002, yet he remains an excellent specialist given the meager .476 he allowed versus left-handers. While I see little upside in drafting Plesac, he's provided a positive fantasy contribution in nearly every year of his career and still owns good skills, making him as one of the best injury replacements normally available in most standard leagues.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rolando Arrojo		4	1	4.98	1.35	51	27	83	81.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		6		1
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	2		2		6		R

Although Arrojo should benefit from moving to Pittsburgh after spending his career with Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Boston, he'll need a fantastic spring to make the team against the best collection of inexpensive retreads assembled by any team this offseason. He displayed questionable skills as both a starter and a reliever last season, however the only obvious difference in his spits was a sudden problem with left-handers. As Arrojo still owns a decent skill set, he could approach double-digit value in 2003 under the right circumstances. Unfortunately the competition in Pirates' camp make him unlikely to open the year as anything more than a long reliever, so spending anything more than a reserve pick on him is a questionable choice.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oscar Henriquez		1	2	4.50	1.21	23	15	19	28
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1

Off-field problems seem the logical excuse for why Henriquez didn't reach 50 career innings until 2002 despite significant success in the upper minors. After compiling a 3.31 ERA and 17 Saves on a 39:14 K:BB in 32.2 IP with 30 H and 4 HR at AAA Toledo, he failed to demonstrate the same skills upon reaching Detroit. A .59 G-F is less of a problem in Comerica than any other stadium, but I don't consider Henriquez a good fantasy option given the Tigers posses plenty of younger right-handers with more upside. He also needed elbow surgery in September, yet even if he recovers by Spring Training, you shouldn't view him as more than roster filler given his inconsistent track record.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of today's pitchers remain in the majors primarily due to their success in some specialized relief roles. Only Bobby Howry has much upside, and he's struggled at times for a couple years thanks to inconsistency and arm problems. While we'll continue to see fairly weak lists of relievers over the next few days, I'm usually at least intrigued by some of the younger pitchers in these columns. Unfortunately I don't view anyone from today as more than late-round roster filler at best.