Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV from $4 to $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Buddy Groom		3	2	1.60	0.90	48	12	44	62
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		13		9		6
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	8		12		8		5

Staying with the Orioles is the primary reason Groom can't hold double-digit PDV thanks to the relative lack of opportunities for saves and especially wins. Unfortunately the notable slippage in his K/9(7.4 '01; 7.0 '02), BB/9(1.2 '01; 1.8 '02), and HR/9(1.70 '01; 1.54 '02) indicate his skills peaked in 200. The only reason his 3.55 ERA didn't approach this year's mark was tremendous support from his defense in 2002 as his hit rate dropped from 8.7 to 6.4 H/9. However Groom's fantastic second half, where he posted a 1.26 ERA on a 24:2 K:BB in 28.2 IP with 24 H and 2 HR, suggests he'll maintain a sub-3.00 ERA and high single-digit value even though I don't expect him to save any additional games; he's a bargain under $5.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Stanton		7	6	3.00	1.29	44	28	73	78
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		13		1		1
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	8		12		2		1

Stanton's strikeout rate collapsed in 2002, falling from 8.7 K/9 to a career-low 5.0. As his other skills essentially remained the same, this loss of dominance suggests a pending loss of roto value. I'm also concerned that while he performed decently at home and during the first half, he posted a meager 11:16 K:BB in 36.1 IP away from Yankee Stadium and only managed a 14:13 K:BB in 28.2 IP after the All-Star game. Moving to a better pitchers' park in Shea should prevent some damage to his qualitative numbers, but he remains a first half pitcher and now loses the quantitative benefits of the Yankees' offense. He's a perfectly acceptable Dollar Days or reserve pick, though trade him quickly if he doesn't demonstrate solid skills by May and definitely dump him by July as long as he hasn't unexpectedly worked his way into the saves' mix.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ramiro Mendoza		8	4	3.44	1.29	61	16	102	91.2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		12		8		6
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	8		11		7		3

While Mendoza looks likely to be one of the most overrated pitchers in AL drafts due to his place, along with Alan Embree, at the forefront of Boston's bullpen committee, I see no reason why he won't reach double-digit value. His 6.0 K/9 isn't impressive, but a 1.6 BB/9 and 2.04 G-F aren't far from Derek Lowe's 2002 marks. You also can expect Mendoza's hit rate to decrease thanks to moving to a superior defense in Boston. The key in drafting Mendoza is recognizing he's far more likely to win 10 games and save 10 games than to win 5 and save 15, making him an intriguing middle reliever but certainly not a reliable saves' sources.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hideki Irabu		3	16	5.74	1.43	30	16	51	47
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		12		-2		1
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	7		10		-2		R

Irabu's wins negate his qualitative problems, leaving his shocking save total to basically account for his positive value. The only real obvious skill development here was a rise in his G-F from .96 to a career-high 1.76, but his splits tell us a different story. Over five weeks in the spring when he saved 11 games, he posted a 14:5 K:BB in 16 IP with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 27-13 G-F, skills that rank with almost any closer in the game. Unfortunately he then allowed 8 homers in two weeks when facing the Royals Twins, Angels, and Braves, increasing his ERA from 3.49 to 6.39 in seven appearances. So I believe Irabu still owns the basic skills necessary to succeed in the majors, and both his mid-season meltdown and subsequent injury problems seem more a result of bad luck than any deficiency in his pitching ability. Assuming he finds continued success back in Japan, I plan to recommend him should he return to MLB as a reliever.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tony Fiore		10	0	3.16	1.29	55	43	74	91
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		11
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	7		10

The departures of Bob Wells, Mike Jackson, and Jeff Cressend leave Fiore as the only experienced right-handed middle reliever in Minnesota since LaTroy Hawkins will stay in a late-inning role. Of course in Fiore's 11-season professional career, only in 2001 did he managed a 2.0+ K:BB, and neither his 5.4 K/9 nor a 4.3 BB/9 give me hope he can maintain this ERA. Even his 1.0 HR/9 seems low given his .70 G-F, and a defense-induced 7.3 hit rate won't protect his qualitative stats forever. Given the Twins' growing pitching depth throughout the system, I neither expect Fiore to remain with the team all season nor earn PDV in 2003.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Franklin		7	0	4.02	1.17	65	22	117	118.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		11		2		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	7		10		2		R

Seattle's reluctance to sign an established starter as they wait for the minors to start producing viable Major League pitchers leaves Franklin entering Spring Training as the #4 starter. I know he won't be a dominant member of the rotation and his .82 G-F and 1.1 HR/9 worry me, however he posted around a 3.0 K:BB as both a starter and a reliever. As the Mariners still possess a great defense, solid bullpen, and promising offense, Franklin should maintain these approximate qualitative stats while winning around a dozen games. You should be comfortable rostering him anywhere below double-digit draft prices.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Bradford		4	2	3.11	1.15	56	14	73	75.1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10		5		2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	7		9		5		1

Though Chicago worked Keith Foulke fairly hard the past few years, Oakland likely will trade for an established closer if he encounters more than minor injury problems, keeping Bradford under a half-dozen save opportunities. Yet he remains of the best middle relievers in baseball as his K:BB hasn't fallen below 2.8 in four seasons or below 3.9 over the last three years. He owns a career 3.60 G-F, so while his 6.7 K/9 doesn't indicate overt dominance, I see no reason he won't remain quite effective for a few years. The main reason his ERA almost tripled after the break is that his hit rate jumped from 7.1 to 10.8 H/9, and hopefully a full season of Mark Ellis at second base and the addition of Chris Singleton in center will provide better defense for all Oakland pitchers. You'll earn a profit on Bradford if you can secure him for under $5, and a double-digit return on your investment wouldn't surprise me at all.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shigetoshi Hasegawa		8	1	3.20	1.28	39	30	60	70.1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		9		8		3
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	5		7		7		3

The move of Ryan Franklin to the rotation and John Halama to Oakland leaves Hasegawa as Seattle's sole veteran middle reliever before teams reach the late-inning crew of Sasaki, Rhodes, and Nelson. This role nearly guarantees a half-dozen wins as long as he doesn't allow a significant amount of baserunners. Hasegawa's 3.8 BB/9 isn't too good, especially considering his 5.0 K/9, but nothing in his six-year career indicates he won't provide a positive contribution to his fantasy owners. Yes, he possesses relatively poor skills, could melt down in a hitters' park, possesses little upside, and I don't have much interest in owning him, however he also won't hurt you for a buck or two.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Shuey		8	1	3.31	1.28	63	31	56	68
CLE/LA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8		3		3
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	6		8		3		2

Shuey's shockingly terrible debut with the Dodgers, when he posted a 9.39 ERA on an 8:12 K:BB in 6.2 IP with 12 H over his first two weeks in the NL, nearly negated his excellent performance over the rest of the season. Overall the only obvious problem was a 4.1 BB/9, and we're not too concerned about continuing command problems given his 8.3 K/9. However he's never demonstrated great control, and while I still believe he's one of the more qualified potential closers in the game, his inconsistent performance troubles me. While certainly worth a couple bucks, I don't expect him to save more than a couple games each year he plays for the Dodgers.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Casey Fossum		5	1	3.46	1.34	101	30	113	106.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	6		8		3		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	7		9		3		2

Fossum opened the season as Boston's primary lefty reliever, and he proved surprisingly effective given he skipped AAA by compiling a 3.15 ERA on a 32:11 K:BB in 40 IP with 38 H and 4 HR. Boston demoted him in July to stretch out his arm in five AAA appearances, and he posted a 28:6 K:BB in 25 IP at Pawtucket(IL) before returning as the Red Sox's #5 starter. Over the last two months of the year he compiled a 3.65 ERA on a great 69:19 K:BB in 66.2 IP with 75 H and 8 HR, and neither of the last two numbers worry me given his respectable 1.14 G-F and Boston's solid defense. I expect Fossum will wind up the #4 starter in 2003 to break up the right-handers in the rotation, and given his success both throughout the minors and since reaching the majors, I see no reason why he won't earn double-digit value. He's a good bet for a sub-4.00 ERA, helpful WHIP, and at least a dozen wins.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scot Shields		5	0	2.20	1.06	30	21	31	49
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	5		7		-3

Somehow Shields wound up the second most valuable reliever on Anaheim, and while I don't expect him to repeat this performance, his minor league numbers suggest his skills likely will improve. He compiled a 3.06 ERA on a 50:6 K:BB in 47 IP with 39 H and 5 HR at AAA Salt Lake(PCL), one of the toughest pitchers' parks in the majors. A 1.92 G-F let Shields hold a .7 HR/9, and while a 5.7 hit rate means he received significant defensive support, neither his 5.5 K/9 nor a 3.8 BB/9 are too far away from our target ratios. I'm most impressed that he kept both right-handers and left-handers from posting an OPS over .600 against him, so even though his questionable command doesn't make him a pitcher I'd want to draft, I see enough here to recommend him as a Dollar Days pick.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brendan Donnelly		1	1	2.17	1.03	54	19	32	49.2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		-3
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	5		7		-3

Back in 1999 Donnelly finished the year with AAA Iowa(PCL), where he posted a 14:6 K:BB in 16.2 IP but posted a 7.56 ERA because he allowed 25 hits and 3 homers; he began dominating at AA Arkansas(TL) for Anaheim the following the year and continued excelling in AAA and the majors. The reason Donnelly is one of the best examples of free bullpen talent is that if the Cubs had kept him instead of selecting Scott Chiasson in the Rule 5 draft, they would have won 3 more games in 2002 just by replacing Chiasson(-9.9 adjusted runs prevented) with Donnelly(13.5 ARP). Instead his performance over the last two seasons ranks him next to KRod as two of most promising relievers to reach the majors in a couple years even though Donnelly's 11 years older. Anaheim's defense may have dropped Donnelly's numbers to truly outstanding levels, however he also posted from negligible splits and only a .98 G-F worries me at all, making him a great buy anywhere in the mid-single digits.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Wohlers		3	7	4.79	1.36	46	26	71	71.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		0
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	4		6		0		R

Wohlers would barely earn PDV without those 7 saves, and with Baez entrenched as Cleveland's closer until Wickman returns, I doubt Wohlers will reach five combined wins and saves. A 1.97 G-F indicates generally reduced downside, however neither his 5.8 K/9 nor a 3.3 BB/9 indicate much upside. While I'd prefer Wohlers over most normally available relievers as roster filler due to his past success, even taking him in Dollar Days seems a reach given his current role.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Halama		6	0	3.56	1.44	70	33	112	101
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5		4		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		3

Career-best marks of a 6.2 K/9 and 1.42 G-F make Halama more intriguing than in any other year of his career, yet I'm concerned that Oakland views him as a very viable starting option. Over the past three years he's compiled a 5.23 ERA on 160:92 K:BB in 298 IP while starting yet managed a sterling 2.14 ERA on 47:23 K:BB in 80 IP out of the bullpen. In 2002 he posted a 2.31 ERA on a 41:17 K:BB in 50.2 IP with 44 H and 3 HR over 21 games in long relief. I don't believe he has a specific stamina problem even though his OOPS jumps from .524 to .795 after his first fifteen pitches, but he definitely seems more comfortable in relief. Feel free to gamble a couple bucks here if Oakland looks comfortable with Lilly, Harang, Hiljus, and Yarnall at the end of the rotation, however even spending a Dollar Days selection looks risky if they want him to start.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Hendrickson		3	0	2.45	1.01	21	12	25	36.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	3		4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Hendrickson.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Al Levine		4	5	4.24	1.49	40	34	61	63.2
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	4		5		1		R
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	3		4		0

One of only two Anaheim relievers who didn't manage above-average contributions in 2002, Levine wound up with the Cardinals as the veteran replacement for Rick White or Dave Veres even though Joey Hamilton or Dustin Hermanson possess much more upside. He's never even managed a 1.5 K:BB since losing his rookie status, and posting a career-worst 1.32 G-F in 2002 doesn't improve my opinion of his pitching. Counting on any positive value from Levine in 2003 is an extremely risky proposition.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jamie Walker		1	1	3.71	0.94	40	9	32	43.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	3		4

A quick glance at Walker's skills suggests he rivals anyone lefty reliever in the game with an 8.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 6.6 H/9. Unfortunately after holding a 1.20 G-F before in 50 innings about five years ago, his current .73 G-F supports his poor 1.9 HR/9, and I don't expect this mark to improve now that the left-center wall in Comerica is conspicuously shorter. While not a true specialist, Walker's at least a perfectly capable middle reliever even if he doesn't possess notable fantasy upside. Don't draft him and only employ him as roster filler if he proves his great WHIP wasn't a fluke.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricardo Rincon		1	1	4.18	1.04	49	11	47	56
CLE/OAK		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5		6		1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	3		5		6

Rincon nicely recovered from arm troubles a couple years ago to re-emerge as one of the best lefty specialists in the game while earning a trade to Oakland. While all his skills are solid, his 7.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 are particularly welcome to roto owners. I'll be surprised if he doesn't earn at least $5 in 2003 thanks to his improvement after leaving Cleveland, making him one of the more reliable and least risky late-round buys, especially since he won't cost more than two bucks in almost any league.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Lance Carter		2	2	1.33	0.98	14	5	15	20.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	2		3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Tampa Bay Prospects for comments on Carter.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The majority of today's pitchers, particularly Groom, Stanton, Mendoza, Bradford, Shuey, and Rincon, have displayed solid-to-excellent skills for year without receiving much recognition from either MLB or fantasy owners. We strongly believe many leagues are won through the acquisition and proper use of these valuable middle relievers. Identifying and securing a solid middle reliever or two by the end of April thanks to their solid skills not only should add an extra $10 of value to your team in 2003 but could bolster your list of potential keepers.