Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV above $15

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Billy Koch		11	44	3.27	1.27	93	46	73	93.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	32		47		21		25
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	30		43		19		24

The White Sox's trade for Koch ranks with the silliest moves of the offseason as they allowed an essentially useless statistics to blur their reasoning; Keith Foulke finished the year as the 15th best reliever in the game while Koch failed to rank among the top 30 bullpen pitchers. Koch's G-F ratio fell to 1.29, continuing a troublesome three-year trend, and though improved strikeout and homer rates are promising, I'm worried about an increase in his walk rate. Most of his success occurred at home rather than on the road, where he posted a 3.71 ERA on a 42:28 K:BB in 43.2 IP, and now he leaves a historical pitchers' park for a very good hitters' park. The good news is that the 2003 White Sox should outscore the 2002 Athletics, and since Chicago also possesses a weaker starting rotation than Oakland, I see significant opportunity for both saves and vultured wins. I definitely don't expect Koch to repeat as the AL's most valuable roto pitcher in 2003, but he'll stay among the top few relievers in the league if he remains healthy since he owns relatively solid skills and faces lesser competition in his new division.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eddie Guardado		1	45	2.93	1.05	70	18	53	67.2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	30		44		20		17
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	27		40		18		16

Guardado finished a couple bucks behind Koch despite a better all-around season because Oakland managed to win 11 games for Koch while Guardado, who led the league in saves, only won a single game. Unfortunately we have more concerns about Guardado remaining at this level than Koch due to Steady Eddie's extreme flyball tendencies. An increase in his homer rate from .7 to 1.2 HR/9 basically negates the drop in his walk rate from 3.1 to 2.4 BB/9. Perhaps the only reasons that he could hold this value is that his platoon split is practically zero and he needs another impressive performance to guarantee a team will overlook the current bias against lefty closers to reward him in free agency in a year. Still, while Guardado's a perfectly safe buy into the mid-$20s, I'll be rather surprised if he reaches $30 in 2003.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Troy Percival		4	40	1.92	1.12	68	25	38	56.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	28		41		27		27
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	26		37		24		25

Percival's almost guaranteed to slip in 2003 after compiling a career-best ERA without demonstrating overly fantastic skills. Not only did he plummet from a career-best .81 G-F in 2001 to a .53 G-F, but hi walk rate also jumped from 2.8 to 4.0 BB/9. Plus, Anaheim's post-season success will leave Percival overvalued in many leagues thanks to the extra media exposure. Bidding much above the standard $25 or so for establishes closers doesn't look like a logical proposition to me.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kazuhiro Sasaki		4	37	2.52	1.05	73	20	44	60.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		39		30		30
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	24		36		26		28

While I'm pleased that he managed a career-best .97 G-F in 2002, Sasaki shouldn't hold a sub-3.00 ERA after his walk rate doubled from a 1.5 in 2001 to a 3.0 BB/9 this year. Of course bone chips in his elbow likely accounted for most of his problems, and if we ignore his 9:8 K:BB in 8.1 IP in September, I see nothing wrong with his 2.1 walk rate. The main question facing prospective Sasaki owners is will he recover from his surgery by the start of the season. Hedging your investment by grabbing Arthur Rhodes seems like a good idea if he' available, although I also think Sasaki also will finish closer to $20 than $30, so bid accordingly.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ugueth Urbina		1	40	3.00	1.07	71	20	44	60
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		39		29		21
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	24		35		27		21

I didn't expect to see such a lack of interest in Urbina since he saved 40 games and stayed healthy for the second year in a row. However he's a riskier acquisition than some closers, especially considering his .51 G-F, easily a career-low. His 10.7 K/9 is also his worst strikeout rate since 1996, so the primary reason he compiled the second best ERA of his career was Boston's defense helping him to a 6.6 hit rate. Consequently moving to a team with questionable defense and a poor pitchers' park like Texas doesn't seem like a wise idea. Urbina's even displayed a significant platoon split over the past few years, holding lefties to a .512 OPS but allowing an .821 OPS against right-handers. All these factors lead me to conclude that Urbina's value could fall as low as the high teens, and while I see little wrong with bidding to the mid-$20s under most circumstances, you're taking a risk by acquiring him at anything above $20.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kelvim Escobar		5	38	4.27	1.53	85	44	75	78
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	22		32		24		22
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	21		30		21		20

Barring a rather unlikely playoff run, Toronto almost certainly will trade Escobar since he's a pending free agent and Cliff Politte seems ready to close. Now Escobar's 9.6 K/9 demonstrates his best dominance since his 1997 debut, but his terrible 5.1 walk rate is also his worst mark since that season, thereby increasing the difficulty of predicting his 2003 performance given this general inconsistency. Fortunately a 3.62 ERA on a 41:19 K:BB in 37.1 IP with 36 H and 5 HR over 40 G in the second half gives us a glimpse at Escobar's upside, and since he also only turns 27 in April, I expect he's still approaching his peak. Three dozen saves and a 3.90 ERA look like fairly reasonable stats, although you should start shopping him by July since most teams who would target Escobar would leave him in middle relief.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jorge Julio		5	25	1.99	1.21	55	27	55	68
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		30		12		3
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	19		27		11		4

Julio won the Baltimore closing job as we expected although he only needed a great Spring Training performance rather than in-season success to supplant Willis Roberts. His 3.6 BB/9 mildly concerns me, but it's hard to remember that he only turns 24 in March. While he'll face the same problems as all Orioles' pitchers and a .93 G-F suggests his homer rate will rise from his current .7 HR/9, I see no reason why he won't develop in similar fashion to Billy Koch. Julio's a good buy anywhere in the low-$20s, and even if his value drops a little in 2003, his long-term upside remains very high.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Acevedo		1	28	2.65	1.22	43	23	68	74.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	20		30		-3
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	18		26		-3

Acevedo hadn't displayed much talent since he wound up closing for St. Louis in 1998, and his rise to roto prominence shocked many owners. Unfortunately the pending return of Matt Anderson and Detroit's subsequently logical decision not to re-sign Acevedo left him without a logical destination, and while joining the Yankees improves his odds of making the playoffs, he isn't even guaranteed a roster spot behind Rivera, Karsay, Hammond, and Osuna. Now I'm definitely pleased by some of his skill developments, including a career-best 1.32 G-F and a respectable 2.8 BB/9, but Acevedo is not a dominant pitcher and posted one of the more dramatic splits in baseball. He compiled a .78 ERA on a 24:11 K:BB in 46.1 IP in Comerica while registering a 5.72 ERA on a 19:12 K:BB in 28.1 IP on the road, so moving to New York offers little upside. Bidding more than a buck or two on Acevedo in 2003 looks like a poor investment to me.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mariano Rivera		1	28	2.74	1.00	41	11	35	46
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		28		33		34
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	17		25		29		30

The only question we face in assessing Rivera this season is determining if his shoulder problem will recur, and since he seemed fine by the end of last season, I'm comfortable projecting him to pitch at least 60 innings. Now he's obviously not going to return to his career-year level from 2001, but otherwise I see nothing wrong with Rivera's skills as only a lack of save opportunities due to his DL trips kept him much below $25. I'll be shocked if he doesn't finish among the top few relievers in roto this year, so while you should limit your bids to the mid-$20s to safeguard against him missing a couple weeks to injury, he'll remain an elite closer when active.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Wakefield		11	3	2.81	1.05	134	51	121	163.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		28		2		R
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	19		28		3		R

Wakefield seems to be blooming in the latter part of his career like most knuckleballers, but few pitchers in general see this much success after turning 35. He competed for the ERA title much of 2002 for the second year in a row, and although he improves Boston's flexibility as a reliever, the Red Sox recognize that he makes a greater contribution in the rotation. I don't expect him to even maintain these sterling qualitative stats since he should regress from his career-low marks of a 6.7 H/9 and 2.8 BB/9. However the upside suggested by his overall skills gives Boston the confidence to slot Wakefield as the #2 starter to give opponents a dramatically different look between Pedro and Lowe. The really good news here is that I still sense a tremendous reluctance to trust Wakefield's continued success, making him an excellent pitcher to target in spring drafts as you should be able to secure him for at least a few bucks below the roughly $15 value I expect to project for him.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: AL closers were a particularly bad investment in 2002 as only four of the twelve reliever worth double-digit bids in both expert leagues earned a profit in both leagues. While injuries derailed Matt Anderson, Bob Wickman, Mariano Rivera, and Kaz Sazaki, Roberto Hernandez and Esteban Yan displayed questionable skills for horrible teams. Even Kelvim Escobar failed to demonstrate consistent talent. Only Keith Foulke lost his job without either injury or noticeable skill problems, and he failed to accumulate his normal numbers due to an extended early-season slump. So while relievers still comprise half of the top 10 AL fantasy pitchers and sixteen of the first 35 slots, drafting at least one AL reliever with very good skills who's in a position to grab a couple dozen saves looks very important to nearly any standard roto strategy.