Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV below $-4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

91.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Teut		0	0	9.82	2.18	4	3	13	7.1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-5		-7
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		-9

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Florida Prospects for comments on Teut.

92.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Everett Stull		0	0	6.30	2.40	7	9	15	10
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-7
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-5		-9

Stull didn't display overly decent skills until the last couple years, so teams were justified in giving only the briefest of looks in the majors. However he went 11-11 while compiling a 3.87 ERA on 119:49 K:BB in 151 IP with 149 H and 13 HR over 24 GS at AAA Indianapolis(IL) last season, so he now looks prepared to succeed in the majors. Of course 2002 could have been his career year, so there's no reason to acquire Stull unless he both demonstrates good skills in the minors and strings together a few solid outings in the majors.

93.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Mlicki		4	0	5.34	1.57	57	34	101	86
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-7		-1		R
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-4		-7		0		R

I doubt Milwaukee signed Mlicki expecting anything more than an innings eater considering he hasn't demonstrated acceptable skills since departing Los Angeles in early 1999. His 5.34 ERA in 2002 was his best mark in the last three seasons, and I don't see any indication that he'll regain his lost command. Mlicki should have more success if used in relief, but the Brewers' defense is so questionable that I wouldn't bother rostering him until we see him pitch effectively for a couple weeks.

94.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Todd Stottlemyre		0	0	7.52	1.62	12	7	26	20.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-5		-8		-5		1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-6		-9		-4		R

Stottlemyre looked ready to retire after encountering severe arm problems in 2000, and he could have left the game having never posted truly terrible numbers in any season. Yet while his 2002 stats placed an ignominious end on his career, staying with Arizona for the past two years allowed him to add another ring to the two he won with the Blue Jays.

95.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Pearce		0	0	7.62	2.15	1	8	20	13
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-6		-10

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of St. Louis Prospects for comments on Pearce.

96.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Osting		0	0	7.50	2.33	7	10	18	12
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-6		-9

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for comments on Osting.

97.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jamey Wright		7	0	5.29	1.59	77	75	130	129.1
MIL/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8		-5		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-4		-7		-2		3

Although he's currently the favorite for Seattle's fifth starter's job, I doubt Wright will spend all season as a member of their rotation. His main attribute is a solid G-F ratio, and flyball pitchers seem to benefit more from Safeco due to the decreased homers. Wright also isn't a dominant pitcher and suffers from troubling control problems. A conversion to relief may be the only move that allows him to develop into a decent pitcher, and since I doubt he'll stop starting any time soon, you should not even considering owning Wright in the foreseeable future.

98.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Bere		1	0	5.67	1.47	65	28	98	85.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-9		9		3
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-5		-7		10		5

Bere looks set to break camp as the Indians #2 starter, which is much more an indictment over the talent currently on Cleveland's roster than any compliment of Bere's ability. Only a June line drive off Bere's right knee that forced him to the DL prevented him from rebounding in the second half, especially since his 2.3 K:BB and 2.9 BB/9 are easily the best marks of his career. He finally looks healthy and recovered from the abuse he suffered under as a youngster, however Cleveland's defense is even worse than Chicago's, so his hit rate may remain at a level high enough to prevent him from earning Positive Draft Value thanks to his poor qualitative numbers. A Dollar Days selection of Bere could turn into a nice investment with a little luck, but don't select him unless you can reserve him as necessary.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nick Neugebauer		1	0	4.72	1.81	47	44	56	55.1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-9		8		4
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-5		-8		10		3

Milwaukee's handling of Nuke remains abhorrent as they've burned much of the last two years off his arbitration and free agency clocks thanks to rushing him to the majors and then abusing his arm by overworking him. He desperately needs a few month of AAA time given his abhorrent command and likely diminishing confidence. Fortunately he remains a dominant groundball pitcher who still looks like one of the best pitching prospects in the game, and he could reach double-digit value as soon as 2004 if he avoids serious injury. Definitely try to grab Neugebauer if he's available in an Ultra or minor league, although you probably shouldn't view him as a viable fantasy option as long as the Brewers insist on leaving him in the majors without notable skill development.

100.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Howard		0	0	9.28	2.53	10	14	13	10.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-9
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-6		-10

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Diego Prospects for comments on Howard.

101.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shawn Chacon		5	0	5.73	1.53	67	60	122	119.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-9		-5		R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-5		-8		-2

Chacon led the Southern League in both strikeouts and walks in 2000, demonstrating both his significant potential and his need for more development time. Unfortunately Colorado's only given him a total of eight AAA starts over the last two years, so Chacon has struggled as expected while displaying little of the talent that had him scaling prospect lists earlier in his professional career. As I wouldn't advise owning him even in a friendly ballpark, you certainly shouldn't acquire him as long as stays in Coors.

102.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carl Pavano		6	0	5.16	1.61	92	45	174	136
MON/FLO		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-9		-5		5
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-7		-3		5

Hopefully Florida will exercise some competence by leaving Pavano in the bullpen unless they hope to trade him as soon as registers a couple of decent outings as their fifth starter even though Michael Tejera possesses both better long-term and short-term potential. Of course Pavano also never displayed overly poor command with Montreal, and since he's a groundball pitcher who only turned 27 last month, I see some upside in his numbers. Although his 15:5 K:BB in 21.1 innings over 15 appearance as a reliever are far more impressive than his stats as a starter, Pavano appears capable of earning a few bucks in 2003 regardless of his role. However I wouldn't bother drafting him in most leagues given his past inconsistency and injury troubles, and make sure you can replace him when necessary if you do roster him.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Travis Smith		4	0	7.17	1.65	32	20	69	54
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-10
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-6		-10

Smith's command problems are rather surprising given his 62:14 K:BB in 85.2 IP at AAA Memphis(PCL) as well as his fairly impressive performances at AA in the previous couple seasons. A 1.58 G-F also suggests his homer rate would have fallen with more work. His poor showing in his debut season seems mainly due to limited defensive support and the unfamiliarity of making seven of his ten starts on the road, each one in a different city. I expect him to return to the major in another year or two and emerge as a decent fourth starter for a couple seasons, however his troubles in 2002 demand that we wait for him to demonstrate success in the majors before rostering him in the future.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Dempster		10	0	5.38	1.54	153	93	228	209
FLO/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-10		1		8
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5		3		14

Cincinnati couldn't have been too happy with the results of the Dempster trade in 2002. I suspect they'll also find this year's performance unacceptable even though the only real skill change from his All-Star season in 2000 is a strikeout rate that's fallen from 8.3 to 7.3 and now 6.6 K/9. Unfortunately youngsters are not supposed to pitch well over 600 Major League innings before their 25th birthdays, and Florida didn't exactly base their team philosophy around preventing Dempster from overwork. Left-handers also smacked him for a sickening .991 OPS, and opposing managers will learn to pull the right-handers that averaged a .698 OPS unless Dempster addresses this problem. I believe the combination of abuse and skill deficiency will leave him struggling to find much success in the near future, although his short-term upside will look much brighter if he's striking out a batter per inning in Spring Training

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Smyth		1	0	9.35	1.69	16	10	34	26
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-10
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-7		-11

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (N) Prospects for comments on Smyth.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shawn Estes		5	0	5.10	1.58	109	83	171	160.2
NYM/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-7		-10		-8		4
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		-7		-5		7

Since even Don Gullett couldn't fix Estes' control problem, I doubt he'll find any more success by rejoining Dusty Baker in Chicago. He didn't even demonstrate acceptable command back when he won 19 games in 1997, and none of his splits suggest he'd find more success in a more restricted role. The Cubs' signing of Estes ranks with the most questionable moves of the offseason, and only the potential to swap him for a prospect or two will make his starts watchable for us. As his WHIP alone will leave him with a negative contribution to your team, I can't envision a scenario under which drafting Estes is a good idea.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Anderson		8	0	5.44	1.64	47	63	167	140.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-7		-11		-4		R
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-6		-10		-3		R

Cincinnati was perhaps the worst team for Anderson to join given their starting pitching and left-handed relief depth. However you probably realize that Anderson's dramatically horrible command indicates why he shouldn't have advanced beyond AA. Hopefully returning to the minor will help Anderson rediscover his skills from A-ball since he definitely doesn't belong in the majors right now.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Diggins		0	0	8.63	1.92	15	18	28	24
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-11
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-7		-11

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for comments on Diggins.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Tollberg		1	0	6.13	1.74	33	19	88	61.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-12		6		7
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-7		-12		6		10

Anyone who accidentally confused Brian Lawrence with Tollberg wound up with an unexpectedly nasty surprise as Tollberg obliterated the qualitative stats of many teams before he mercifully spend the rest of the season on the DL. Of course pitching in front of the worst defense in the league left him with a painful 12.8 H/9, and none of his other skills were even close to compensating for his hit rate problem. There's no reason to count on fantasy help from Tollberg in 2003 as he only underwent Tommy John surgery last June, leaving him unlikely to pitch at all this season.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Julian Tavarez		10	0	5.39	1.7	67	74	188	153.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-8		-12		-5		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-7		-11		-3		R

Tavarez likely consented to join Pittsburgh's collection of journeymen primarily because I doubt any time other than Colorado expressed much interest in signing him. Of course the odds of him winning a roster spot in Spring Training are essentially zero, and since his command degenerated to a completely unacceptable level in 2002, even his helpful groundball tendency can't counter his otherwise terrible skills. Ignore Tavarez until further notice.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bud Smith		1	0	6.94	1.85	22	22	67	48
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-8		-13		14		6
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-8		-13		14		12

I'm under the impression that the Cardinals largely shattered his confidence by demoting him at the end of Spring Training and his great numbers in six starts at AAA Memphis were the figurative calm before the storm. His strikeout rate dropped by over 2 K/9 as his walk rate rose by nearly the same amount, and he continued to struggle until the Phillies finally shut him down in mid-August after they acquired Smith in the Rolen deal. I haven't seen a report on how Smith addressed the torn tissue in his shoulder, so we have no idea when he'll be ready to pitch this season. As of now you can't count on any production from Smith, and I wouldn't even favor him if healthy since the Phillies' rotation looks very full at the moment.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ruben Quevedo		6	0	5.76	1.63	93	68	159	139
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-13		3		7
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-7		-11		6		6

Instead of building on his late spring run of four great starts in a row Quevedo pitched as badly as anyone in the game after the All-Star break, posting a 10.03 ERA on a 24:21 K:BB in 35 IP with 53 H and 12 HR. The combination of an abundance of baserunners and extreme flyball tendency left him as one of worst pitchers to own in any league. Even if he looks healthy in Spring Training and wins a rotation spot, I'll want to see a month of success before considering him for our teams.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dennis Tankersley		1	0	8.06	1.93	39	40	59	51.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-10		-16				1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-10		-15				R

Although Tank's 3.02 ERA on a 56:21 K:BB in 50.2 IP with 47 H and 1 HR over 10 starts at AA Mobile(SL) demonstrated he was ready for a promotion, San Diego only should have bumped him to AAA. He significantly damaged his status by performing so extraordinarily badly in the major, and hopefully the Padres will give him another few months in the minor before even considering him for another promotion given his desperate need for additional maturity. I'm as concerned over Tank's short-term outlook as any other young pitching prospects, and not only do I believe he's far too risky to draft this spring, but I strongly advised you to deal him for the best available package if you own him in any keeper leagues.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Hampton		7	0	6.15	1.79	74	91	228	178.2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-16		-24		-17		10
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-14		-21		-13		1

Anybody risking rostering Hampton in 2002 saw their qualitative categories bludgeoned to the stratosphere as skills continued to sharply erode. Not only has his formerly excellent G-F dropped for four straight seasons, but his strikeout rate has almost dropped in half over the same time period as his walk rate's risen to 4.9 BB/9, well above his 3.7 K/9. Even a sharp reduction in his hit rate wouldn't bring his stats back to respectability given his disgustingly bad command, and since he performed even worse on the road, I don't expect an overly production season even though he escaped Coors. I doubt he'll reach PDV and any 2003 value over $5 would completely shock me. The problem with Hampton is his skills were slipping even before he joined Colorado and only the advantages of the Astrodome and Shea camouflaged his problems. Since the media attention surrounding his trade to Atlanta should force a couple of competitors to approach double digits in bidding for Hampton, there's absolutely no excuse for you to even consider rostering him in anything resembling a standard league.

Pitchers normally don't fall to this level of statistical squalor without reason. Nearly everyone discussed today should spend most of 2003 in the upper minors at best. However a couple hurlers like Bere, Pavano, and Dempster displayed intriguing upside in 2002 despite their poor qualitative numbers. As they'll be available for effectively nothing in most drafts since everyone knows how badly they pitched last year, one or two of these guys could emerge as very helpful bargain sleepers.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: No Rx today in remembrance of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its seven member crew.