Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV of $-3 and $-4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

77.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Williams		2	0	4.98	1.43	33	24	38	43.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-4		8		1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-5		8		R

Williams only made nine starts before hitting the DL with a torn labrum, and he seems likely to spend the first few months of this year recovering in the minors since Pittsburgh suddenly possesses impressive depth and only let him start 10 games above A-ball before promoting him in 2001. While he didn't pitch poorly in the majors, a 90:69 K:BB in 157.1 IP isn't acceptable from any pitcher. There's no reason for anyone to roster Williams until he demonstrates better skills.

78.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Wayne		2	0	5.32	1.48	16	13	22	23.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Florida Prospects for comments on Wayne.

79.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bobby J. Jones		7	0	5.50	1.44	60	21	134	108
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		-6		R
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-4		-4		R

Though I'm not too concerned about Jones' health problem in 2002, his roto potential seems entirely connected to his new team's defense; his lack of dominance makes a low hit rate quite important in avoiding qualitative damage from him. Of course he also still hasn't signed with Spring Training only two weeks away, and I can't think of many teams that even need a mediocre innings eater. He's not worth drafting even if he signs with Seattle until we see him display decent skills and consistency for a few weeks.

80.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adam Eaton		1	0	5.40	1.35	25	17	28	33.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-6

Adam Eaton is about three months behind Kris Benson in recovering from Tommy John surgery, and since he barely looked ready for the majors even before the injury, the 25-year-old isn't worth a significant investment. He certainly possesses enough upside to merit a high reserve pick or even a Dollars Days bid in deeper leagues, but his increasing flyball tendency and the Padres' problems on offense and defense make him risky choice even at just a few bucks.

81.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Marquis		8	0	5.04	1.54	84	49	127	114.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		6		8
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-3		7		9

Marquis hasn't dominated opponents since A-ball in 1998, and his questionable command makes him only a borderline fifth starter at the moment; Trey Hodges likely would have more success if given a chance this year. Somehow Marquis snookered the Braves into helping him rack up over two seasons of service time when he should have spent all of 1999 and much of 2000 in the minors. He even suffered from control problems in 22 relief outings in 2001. There's nothing in his skill repertoire that indicates he'll earn Positive Draft Value in 2003, making even a dollar flyer look unwise unless you can leave him reserved in favor of a decent middle reliever until Marquis demonstrates good command for Atlanta.

82.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Ennis		0	0	4.50	2.00	1	3	5	4
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-4		-7

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Ennis.

83.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cory Vance		0	0	6.75	2.00	1	4	4	4
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-7

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Colorado Prospects for comments on Vance.

84.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jung Bong		0	0	7.50	1.67	4	2	8	6
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-4		-7

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Atlanta Prospects for comments on Bong.

85.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Acevedo		4	0	7.23	1.69	14	12	28	23.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		6		R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-7		7		R

Acevedo looked great after Cincinnati left him in AAA for nearly the entire season after he irritated Reds' management. He went 12-7 and compiled a 3.20 ERA on 128:34 K:BB in 154.2 IP with 146 H and 16 HR over 23 starts for AAA Louisville(IL). However even though he seems ready to return to the majors, trading for Dempster, moving Graves to the rotation, re-signing Jimmy Haynes, and signing Paul Wilson leave only one spot available for a half-dozen contenders. Chris Reitsma is the favorite after spending most of the last two years starting for the Reds, and since Acevedo only turned 25 in December and could improve on a 7.4 K/9 at AAA, I expect he'll spend one more year in the minor. I believe he has one option left, so while his long-term future remains bright, I doubt he'll see the Great American Ballpark until after Cincinnati trades Paul Wilson in July.

86.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Duckworth		8	0	5.41	1.45	167	69	167	163
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		12		4
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1		13		9

My biggest concern regarding Duckworth is a G-F ratio that crashed by over 50% from 1.75 to .85, thereby causing his homer rate to skyrocket from .3 to 1.4, a change that account for roughly a full point increase in his ERA. Problems with limiting his hit rate on the road and occasional control failure are responsible for the rest of his troubles, though his fantastic 9.2 K/9 effectively erased his negative qualitative contribution in 5x5 leagues. His strikeout rate gives him tremendous upside if he receives slightly better support from his teammates, walks a few less batters, and reverses his sudden flyball tendency. Duckworth wouldn't surprise me if he reached double-digit value in 2003, and after his poor stats last year, I doubt you'll need to pay half that much to draft him.

87.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jared Fernandez		1	0	4.44	1.64	36	24	59	50.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-6

Cincinnati dumped Fernandez even though his 80:31 K:BB in 128.1 IP at AAA Louisville(IL) demonstrates respectable potential, and Houston wisely added him to their pitching stable. As perhaps the second best knuckleballer in the game given Steve Sparks' deterioration, Fernandez is extremely valuable when employed as a long reliever to avoid ever overtaxing the bullpen. His minor league history even suggests he'd pitch effectively as a starter, however I don't envision him receiving the needed opportunity with the Astros given their AAAA depth. He's also quite risky to own since he's never displayed great command above AAA, leaving him undraftable this spring even though he might help at some point during the year.

88.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Robert Person		4	0	5.44	1.48	61	51	79	87.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6		15		11
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-6		15		11

Person still hasn't signed with only two weeks remaining before camps open and likely couldn't win a job even after he joins a club since he's still recovering from the surgery needed to repair a tear in his shoulder. He's especially risky in hitters' parks given his ever-increasing flyball tendency and homer rate, so you at least shouldn't roster him until he displays both decent control and a strikeout rate near the marks he posted before his injury. Don't even consider spending an Ultra pick on him unless he looks great in games.

89.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Garrett Stephenson		2	0	5.40	1.62	34	25	48	45
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		1		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-7		2		2

Stephenson's only pitched decently in three of the last seven seasons, yet the Cardinals expect him to make their rotation since his Tommy John surgery was almost two years ago. Of course he pitched quite decently for St. Louis in 2000, however he didn't exactly dominate opponents and didn't appear likely to repeat his performance at the time. His command problems after returning in 2002 indicate that you should only consider him in leagues where you can leave him benched until he proves his skills are back, and I don't see enough upside to warrant more than a reserve pick even in leagues with open transactions.

90.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kirk Saarloos		6	0	6.01	1.49	54	27	100	85.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-6

We were so suckered by the hype surrounding his AA performance that we wasted $42 of FAAB on him in one league. However his 10-1 record and a 1.40 ERA supported by an 82:21 K:BB in 83.1 IP with 48 H and 1 HR in the hitters' paradise at AA Round Rock(TL) was rather stunning, and he demonstrated similar skills in four appearances in AAA after he bombed his first audition with the Astros. While he's theoretically only in competition for a spot at the end of Houston's rotation, his decent command, wonderful 2.45 G-F, and likely decreased hit rate make him an intriguing sleeper if he remains in the majors as we expect. Try to keep him reserved in the beginning of the year unless he looks great in Spring Training, however he should earn no less than a few bucks of Positive Draft Value regardless of another slow start.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of the starters discussed above won't earn even a dollar of PDV in 2003 due to either continued recovery from injuries or the need for additional seasoning. However Acevedo, Saarloos, and especially Duckworth look prepared to succeed in the majors and provide nice bargains for roto owners. If any of these three somehow wind up in the minors, you might wind up with a great keeper if you snag them with a minor league pick, though Duckworth should stay in the Phillies' rotation as one of their keys to the season.