Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV from $1 to $3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tony Armas, Jr.		12	0	4.44	1.38	131	78	149	164.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		9
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	5		7		7		10

I doubt many pitchers can amass over 600 innings before their 25th birthdays without suffering arm troubles, and Montreal certainly hasn't babied Armas. Though he only missed time in 2002 due to back problem, I expect he'll return to the DL for a longer stay in the near future. Fortunately a career-best 1.42 G-F suggests he'll remain effective while healthy, and yet he struck out almost one batter less per game last season even as his walk rate rose. He also pitched terribly in the second half, posting a 5.43 ERA on a 45:30 K:BB in 56.1 IP. I can envision him reaching double-digit value in 2003, however the risk involved with drafting Armas turns even bids in the high single digits into questionable gambles.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Livan Hernandez		12	0	4.38	1.41	134	71	233	216
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		2		R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	5		7		3		R

I doubt Felipe Alou will lessen Hernandez's workload, however since the starters taken about as much abuse as anyone in baseball over the past five years, we almost need to assume Livan won't drop below 200 inning any time soon. Of course he's prime trade bait given the Giants' young starting guns, and leaving PacBell will further expose his shortcomings to the league. Fortunately his second half performance, when he managed a 3.76 ERA on 67:34 K:BB in 103 IP, at least suggests he's capable of regaining his effectiveness from two seasons ago. Selecting Hernandez assures you of little besides a bunch of innings and a dozen wins, however he offers intriguing upside for someone normally available for only a buck or two.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pedro Astacio		12	0	4.79	1.33	152	63	192	191.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		2		9
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	5		8		2		15

Astacio performed as well as nearly any starter in baseball until he lost his command in July and his hit and homer rates skyrocketed over the last two months of the season. His performance in the first half, when he won 8 game with a 3.17 ERA on 86:36 K:BB in 110.2 IP with 98 H and 12 HR, suggested he'd finally fulfill the promise hidden for years thanks the negative effects of Coors. However his meltdown after the break suggests his unrepaired torn labrum will continue to plague him, making Astacio a risk at any price unless you can reserve him at your leisure if he's struggling.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Beckett		6	0	4.10	1.27	113	44	93	107.2
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4		17		14
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	4		6		18		16

Beckett's blister problems caused him to pitch fewer innings than Mark Prior despite spending all year in the major aside from two rehab starts. The Marlins even managed not to abuse Beckett as he only reached 100 pitches six times and exceeded 110 pitches once. Consequently, since his blisters should be healed, Beckett could reach 180 innings this season fairly easily. He offers similar skills to Prior but is worth a slightly larger investment since he faces less risk of arm injury and Florida offers much better defense than the Cubs. Bidding into the mid-teens on Beckett seems unreasonable, though cut all projections in half if his blisters return during Spring Training.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pete Walker		10	1	4.36	1.40	80	51	145	140.1
NYM/TOR		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		4
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	3		4

Walker turns 34 in early April yet appears set for a Toronto rotation spot after a reasonably impressive 2002 performance. Unfortunately he's a poor fantasy choice since while he won 9 games and compiled a 4.79 ERA on a 70:41 K:BB in 114.2 innings while starting, he only managed a 10:10 K:BB in 25.2 IP in relief. There's little upside in these skills and therefore effectively no reason to draft him.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Jennings		16	0	4.52	1.46	127	70	201	185.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	3		4		-9
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	4		6		-6

Colorado finally learned that all they need to succeed is actual quality pitching prospects, and a wave of intriguing arms will crash into Coors over the next couple years. Jennings, as the reigning albeit potentially undeserving Rookie of the Year, will remain at the center of most media attention, though his 2003 fantasy value depends on his ability to combine skills with luck. He could have held a sub-4.00 ERA with solid defensive support in the first half, yet a rising homer rate and command problems in the second half suggest a pending sophomore slump. We have to err on the side of caution with Colorado pitchers, and I see no reason why you shouldn't leave Jennings to your competitors without regrets.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darryl Kile		5	0	3.72	1.30	50	28	82	84.2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		16		14
12.2.68 - 6.22.02	5x5:	2		2		17		17

Kile looked ready to lead the Cardinals through the playoffs, and his teammates' persevering performance over the rest of the season was a testament to Kile's work ethic. He remained a quality starter to the end, pitching over 7 innings and allowing only one run to spur St. Louis to a 5-4 win over Anaheim four days before his death.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oliver Perez		4	0	3.50	1.32	94	48	71	90
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	2		3
2002 Age: 21	5x5:	3		4

Perez only needed four starts in the high minor before quickly emerging as one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball. Yet his immaturity showed when he pitched in winter ball against the Padres' directive, a worrisome decision considering he missed most of August after straining his shoulder while making an inexcusable headfirst slide. Since Perez looks homer prone and could see his WHIP and therefore ERA rise after his unusually lucky debut performance, there's much too risk here for most owners despite his long-term promise. I wouldn't bid more than a couple bucks even if I could leave him reserved, although he's a solid Ultra or minor league pick since San Diego's threatened to leave him at AAA as punishment for his winter ball participation.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Thomson		9	0	4.71	1.35	107	44	201	181.2
COL/NYM		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		6		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	3		4		7		R

New York essentially stole Thomson from Colorado and then stupidly non-tendered him after he didn't excel over the last two months of the season. Now he joins Texas, where his worsening flyball problems worry us almost as much as they did when he pitched in Coors. He's at risk for continued WHIP problems thanks to the Rangers' questionable defense, and as he also doesn't dominate hitters, a 5.00 ERA wouldn't surprise me. However he still displayed solid command and could succeed under the right circumstances making him a good pick for a buck or two if you like gambles with good upside.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Jensen		13	0	4.51	1.45	105	66	183	171.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	3		4		1		R

We still strongly believe Kurt Ainsworth deserved Jensen's rotation spot, and while Jensen pitched acceptably for a few months, his command disintegrated after the break. However converting to relief makes little sense as he allowed an OOPS of .945 through three innings yet held hitter under a .700 OPS after the third. His minor league numbers at least indicate he owns the skills necessary to succeed as a starter, so while he's a risky choice due to his questionable command, there's enough upside here to warrant a couple dollars in an auction.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Masato Yoshii		4	0	4.11	1.33	74	32	143	131.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		-1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	2		2		0		R

Yoshii pitched fairly respectably in 2002 and provided the Expos with solid albeit inconsistent performances. He signed with the Orix Blue Wave to return to Japan for the 2003 season, and I don't expect him to spend any more time in the majors.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Peter Munro		5	0	3.57	1.39	45	23	89	80.2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	1		1

Munro he certainly earned his call-up after going 7-1 with a 2.39 ERA on 73:15 K:BB in 94.1 IP over 13 GS(19G) with 68 H and 3 HR at AAA New Orleans(PCL). He has a decent chance to win a spot in Spring Training in long relief, but even with a 1.63 G-F and good command, his unimpressive dominance means he won't provide much help for fantasy teams on a consistent basis.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Roa		4	0	4.04	1.28	35	13	78	71.1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0

Though he's demonstrated good command throughout his career, Roa's stunning season as AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL), in which he posted a 14-0 record an 1.86 ERA on a 74:16 K:BB in 111 IP with 83 IP and 4 HR, finally pushed him back to the major for the first time since 1997. Of course, even though the Phillies say he's in competition with Brandon Duckworth and Brett Myers for two rotation spots, only an injury will push Roa from long relief into starting. There's nothing wrong with rostering Roa a his WHIP will help you and he could vulture a couple wins, however I don't see much upside in his skills, especially considering the general reluctance to employ him in the past.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Anderson		6	0	4.79	1.32	81	32	174	156
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	1		1		0		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1		0		1

Thanks to barely over 4 runs per game of run support from his teammates, Anderson's 10-20 record over the last two years looks rather shocking considering the numbers of many Arizona pitchers. Unfortunately Anderson won't find better luck in Cleveland as they possess a worse defense and questionable bullpen, along with their unproven offense. I don't expect Anderson to see much success as an Indian given his perpetually elevated hit rate and frequent flyball problems, making him a poor fantasy selection in 2003.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff D'Amico		6	0	4.94	1.30	101	37	152	145.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0		-4		5
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	2		2		-3		5

Analyzing D'Amico is a difficult task as most 6'7" hurlers don't suffer from weak dominance. At least he possesses good control, however his flyball tendency make him a risky pick in any park, especially given his spotty track record. He's no better than Pittsburgh's 5th starter, and he faces significant competition just to earn a regular turn in the rotation. Even though D'Amico looks set to dominate in relief, he still possesses good upside as a starter and could reach double-digit value in the next couple years; of course I'd only roster him in Pittsburgh if I could keep him reserved until he demonstrates improved skills.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos Zambrano		4	0	3.66	1.45	93	63	94	108.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0		3		R
2002 Age: 21	5x5:	2		2		3		R

Chicago's treated Zambrano like a pitcher in his mid-20s so we probably should accept that he's a few years older than listed, an understanding that lets us look at Zambrano without worrying about potentially severe abuse. The signing of Shawn Estes theoretically places Zambrano into competition with Juan Cruz, Alan Benes, and others for the Cubs' #5 slot, but Zambrano's solid overall performance should keep him in the rotation barring a disastrous Spring Training. A 2.10 G-F indicates we don't have to worry about developing homer problems in the foreseeable future, and while his questionable command will scare away some skills-oriented owners, Zambrano compiled a 71:42 K:BB in 83.1 innings in the second half. Only better consistency stands between him and a sharp rise in value, and I don't think you'll even approach a loss unless bidding reaches the high single digits.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kazuhisa Ishii		14	0	4.27	1.58	143	106	137	154
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		0		2		11
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	3		3		3		14

No one knows how Ishii will react to pitching again after a September line drive fractured his skull and gave him a concussion, ending his season in a particularly shocking fashion. Nearly all his fantasy value derive from his wins as his terrible WHIP and walk rates hurt teams' qualitative numbers, and a 1.04 G-F also indicates his 1.2 homer rate could rise. Between his weak skills and unknown mental state on the mound, I see no reason to draft Ishii this spring.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you plan on joining us in playing either CDM Diamond Challenge or Fantasy Baseball this year, tomorrow is the last day to register for the minimum fee. Entry fees for both games increase by $5 on Saturday.

We are not participating in the new High Roller Challenge as we don't believe the best prizes will even match the DC monies due to lack of interest, making an additional DC team or two a better investment.