Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV from $4 to $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Omar Daal		11	0	3.90	1.21	105	54	142	161.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		13		2		2
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	9		13		2		2

While Daal doesn't suffer from a standard righty/lefty platoon split, his numbers with the Dodgers suggest he won't find much success in Baltimore. He posted a 3.39 ERA on a 56:26 K:BB in 85 innings at Dodger Stadium before slipping to a 4.48 ERA on 49:29 K:BB in 76.1 IP on the road. Daal also dominated in relief during 16 games out of the pen, posting a 1.50 ERA on 23:8 K:BB in 30 IP with 16 H and 3 HR, a much better performance than the 4.45 ERA on 82:46 K:BB in 131.1 IP with 126 H and 17 HR he managed in the rotation. These stats suggest Daal's unlikely to compile overly helpful fantasy number while starting in a decently hitter-friendly park like Camden Yards. A 1.08 G-F is his second straight career-worst G-F rate, so not only does he suffer from mediocre command, but his homer rate should rise. Daal's a bad gamble at anything over a couple bucks as I expect a dozen wins, 4.50 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Lawrence		12	0	3.69	1.34	149	52	230	210
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		12		11		7
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	10		15		11		9

Although Lawrence didn't quite meet our expectations, he posted amazing first-half number before tiring after the break as he reached a career-high 210 IP. Fortunately Lawrence only exceeded 120 pitches in one start, so I don't suspect any injury trouble. His 2.51 G-F is one of the best G-F rates in the game and would keep his homer rate low even if he didn't pitch in San Diego. The only skill problem I see is that he needs a better approach to left-handers as they posted an .807 OPS against him, however even that doesn't overly concern me. Lawrence primarily suffered from the worst defense in the NL, which kept both his ERA and WHIP much higher than he could have managed if not for a 9.9 hit rate. We expect San Diego to provide better support this season with a more stable lineup, and we also believe their offense will improve. I don't believe a 3.00 ERA and at least 15 wins looks out of line giving his performance thus far, making Lawrence one of the better sleepers to acquire in almost any league.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kip Wells		12	0	3.58	1.35	134	71	197	198.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		12		-14		3
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	10		14		-10		1

Pittsburgh swiped Wells from the White Sox in perhaps the most one-sided trade of last winter, and an unexpected nearly across-the-board improvement in his skills made our predictions look extremely bad. He received solid defensive support while keeping his strikeout rate above 6.0 and walking about one batter fewer per game. Wells also demonstrated better command after the All-Star break, posting a 2.2 K:BB after a 1.7 mark in the first half, so his higher ERA seems directly attributable to worse defense. I see no reason why he won't reach double-digit value next year, and if your competition is concerned about his unimpressive 1.9 K:BB on the year, feel free to grab Wells at anything under $10.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Trachsel		11	0	3.37	1.38	105	69	170	173.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		11		13		4
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	8		11		14		5

Trachsel dramatically improved in the second half yet he still managed a 3.87 ERA before the All-Star break despite a 1.3 K:BB. However I believe the Mets made a serious error when they re-signed Trachsel instead of the younger and more skilled John Thomson. Trachsel's 1.5 K:BB, fueled by a career-low 5.4 K/9, is also the worst mark of his career, and though his G-F held above 1.30, his past homer rate at that level indicate that his .8 HR/9 in 2002 was far too low. I'll be surprised if Trachsel's ERA doesn't coast over 4.00 in 2003, and since he couldn't win one extra game despite nearly one additional run per game of support last year, I doubt he'll finish with more than a dozen wins. Don't remain in any bidding above five bucks.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jon Lieber		6	0	3.70	1.17	87	12	153	141
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	7		10		14		15
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	7		10		14		16

The Cubs could have dealt Lieber for a significant prospect or two in mid-July, and his season-ending arm injury was a deserved reward for the franchise's startling inaction, especially with a full rotation of under-30 starters already projected for 2003 at the time. As Chicago also owns a promising stable of young arms throughout the system, keeping Lieber made no sense. Now the Yankees will reap the benefits after committing to fund Lieber's recovery even though he won't take the field in 2003 aside from maybe appearing a couple of times in September. However he could emerge as New York's #3 starter in a year after Clemens and Wells depart, leaving the Yankees with a rotation of Mussina, a likely re-signed Pettitte, Lieber, Weaver, and Contreras. New York doesn't even lose a 40-man spot as they can move him to the 40-man roster once the season begins. A stunning career-best .8 BB/9 ranks Lieber with the best control pitcher in recent memory, and prior to the All-Star break, his 68:10 K:BB in 117 IP with 11 HR suggest he can hold an ERA below 3.50 when he returns. The Yankees should provide enough run support for at least a dozen wins in 2003, so while single-season teams should ignore him, he's a definite prize at a couple buck in any keeper league.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Prior		6	0	3.32	1.17	147	38	98	116.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10				3
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	9		13				4

Chicago wisely removed Prior from Bruce Kimm's "guidance" after the interim manager let him throw 136 pitches for an essentially meaningless complete game. Thanks to Kimm, Prior spent a second straight season as one of the dozen most abused pitchers in organized baseball since USC also tried to blow out his arm. Yet while his .81 G-F and 1.1 HR/9 slightly concern me, only the decent chance of a severe injury for Prior in the near future keeps me from suggesting you make a significant investment here. His 11.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 indicate he possesses exceptional command, and a 7.6 hit rate is quite impressive given the Cubs fielded one of the worst defenses in the major. Unfortunately I doubt most people reading this will own him anywhere except challenge leagues this season unless you owned him as a minor leaguer since both the cost of trading for him as a keeper and the price he'll command in most drafts looks too risky to me. I don't like the odds of remaining in any bidding above $15.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Simontacchi		11	0	4.02	1.31	72	54	134	143.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	5		7

Simontacchi will take full advantage of perhaps the best defensive team in baseball; the only position at which Cardinals haven't won gold gloves within the last two years are first, left, and right, meaning they'll generally provide superb coverage of the field for pitcher. Given Simontacchi's unimpressive 4.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, he's extremely dependent on his teammates to keep his hit rate at 8.4 or lower. He's never displayed much dominance while starting in the past, and his 1.15 G-F doesn't guarantee a great homer rate. You essentially can't count on Simontacchi for any qualitative help, so even bidding three or four bucks indicates an optimistic expectation that he'll win 12 or more games.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Ashby		9	0	3.91	1.34	107	65	179	181.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8		1		6
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	6		9		2		4

Ashby looked quite impressive in the first half as he compiled a 3.37 ERA on 70:34 K:BB in 109.2 IP with 92 H and 11 HR. Yet both his dominance and control evaporated after the All-Star game as he posted a 37:31 K:BB in 72 innings over the rest of the season even though he never suffered from arm problems and only missed time towards the end of the year due to a finger blister. Given his past injury troubles and the fact he nearly matched this year's command numbers with a 106:61 K:BB in 2000, I think the odds of Ashby slipping to only a couple bucks of value are very high.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Denny Stark		11	0	4.00	1.34	64	64	108	128.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	4		6

Though Stark didn't exactly rush to the majors as he turned 28 in October, his minor league numbers, including a 3.82 ERA on a 38:14 K:BB in 37.2 IP with 35 H and 4 HR over 7 starts at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) last year, suggest he could succeed in the major. However Stark's road number give us an idea of what we should expect from him this season as he posted a 5.48 ERA on 27:29 K:BB in 44.1 IP with 43 H and 7 HR; a 7.0 H/9 at home fueled his 3.21 ERA in Coors. I can't imagine recommending someone with a 1.0 K:BB and 1.01 G-F even before considering he plays in Colorado, and even if his skills marginally improve, he's extremely unlikely to maintain Positive Draft Value in 2003.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rick Helling		10	0	4.51	1.30	120	48	180	175.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		4		2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	6		8		6		4

Helling's 3.15 road ERA illustrates his potential even before we realize that only a lower home run total prevents him from consistent sub-4.00 ERAs. While I suspect he'll remain a definite flyball pitcher, Helling should beg Dave Dombrowski or Pat Gillick for an incentive-laden contract as he could dominate in a spacious park like Comerica or Safeco. Offhand I'd price him around $5 given these respectable skills, however he drops to roster filler in a bandbox and could push $15 in a favorable stadium with good support from his teammates.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Miguel Batista		8	0	4.29	1.31	112	70	172	184.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		6		6
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	5		7		5		3

I don't overly object to Arizona's dalliance with Kim as a starter since Mantei's more cost-effective as a closer and Batista's unlikely to sustain his success in the rotation. Batista doesn't demonstrate good command in any role, however he finds the most success when throwing between 30 and 60 pitches. Now a 1.74 G-F and the benefit of playing for Arizona suggest he's unlikely to hurt you, but as he shouldn't even approach double-digit value in the near future, Batista's a poor selection before Dollar Days unless you're desperate for wins.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Benes		5	0	2.78	1.35	64	51	80	97
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		-9
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	4		5		-7		R

Benes' Jekyll & Hyde season brought him to such extreme that he earned $8 after the break yet negated half that value in only three April starts. However his 1.86 ERA and 5 wins after the break keyed the Cardinals' down the stretch as their staff disintegrated, and while he didn't record a decision in two playoff starts, he certainly vindicated his decision t return in the second half. Unfortunately his poor command suggests he wouldn't maintain this performance in another season, and Benes likely made the right decision in retiring.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Fogg		12	0	4.35	1.38	113	69	199	194.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		-2		R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	5		7		0		R

Nothing in Fogg's 2001 performance at AAA Charlotte(IL), where he compiled a 4-7 record and 4.79 ERA on an 89:30 K:BB in 114.2 IP with 129 H and 19 HR, indicated he'd suddenly emerge a one of the more intriguing rookie pitcher of 2003. Fortunately a first half in which he won nine games and posted a 3.56 ERA on a 54:24 K:BB in 103.2 innings demonstrated his immediate upside to the league. His second-half meltdown seems mostly related to simple fatigue as he pitched nearly 70 additional innings this year, however he also tired as each game continued. Here's a brief breakdown from ESPN of Fogg's effectiveness as his pitch count increased in 2003:

Pitches	OPS allowed
1-15	.621
16-30	.626
31-45	.682
46-60	.788
61-75	.895
76-90	.981
91-105	1.142
106+	1.167

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brett Tomko		10	0	4.49	1.33	126	60	212	204.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		3
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	5		7		6		3

His 1.4 homer rate seems rather incongruous with a career-best 1.50 G-F, and moving from San Diego to t. Louis won't help him in this area. However Tomko also exchange the worst defense in the league for one of the best in baseball, and the likely decrease in his hit rate alone could send his ERA diving below 4.00 for the first time since he was a rookie. Tomko's poor second half looks more attributable to increasing his workload by 50 innings than to any skill failure. He should be available for under $10 in nearly every league, the likely four-category improvement from him make him a good buy anywhere in single digits.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Sheets		11	0	4.15	1.42	170	70	237	216.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		1		5
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		9		2		10

I gushed about Sheets' upside back in the Milwaukee LPR column, and while I'm a little concerned about his growing inning totals, he looks set to break out in 2003. The Brewers won't provide him with great defense or run support, but they also possess a few decent relievers to protect most of his leads. With a solid K rate, good groundball tendency, and promising command, I see no reason not to bid into the high teens, especially in leagues that count strikeouts.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Haynes		15	0	4.12	1.48	126	81	210	196.2
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		-3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	5		7		-1

We're not used to Haynes posting Positive Draft Value, so even recommending him during last season seemed a stretch. Somehow he's even returning to Cincinnati as their reigning ace based on his 2002 performance. A nearly career-best 1.6 K:BB indicates he might be developing into something more than an innings eater, however any chance he'll repeat his 3.76 second half ERA without an improvement from his 63:44 K:BB seems mostly dependent on the Reds' defense. Several potential position shifts could leave them with their least impressive group in years, making Haynes a definite gamble before Dollar Days.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Reitsma		6	0	3.64	1.37	84	45	144	138.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		-4
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	4		5		-2		R

I doubt Reitsma even will make more than a dozen starts for the Reds in 2003 even if he manages to beat out a half-dozen other contenders for the only open spot in the rotation. Nevertheless his performance over the last two seasons is rather impressive considering he should have spent both years in the minors as he's started all of 17 games in the upper minors. Even without dominating hitters he owns a nice foundation for future development, and I'd love to see the Reds keep in relief for a season since he compiled a 1.29 ERA on an 18:5 K:BB in 21 IP over 11 G with 17 H and 0 HR out of the pen. He's a solid candidate to replace Scott Sullivan if Cincinnati moves their former setup man for budgetary reason, and Reitsma could approach double-digit value out of the pen. However don't bid more than a buck for him in anything short of the deepest leagues as he doesn't look prepared to succeed in the rotation and I doubt anyone will recognize his potential as a reliever.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the 17 pitchers discussed today, only Jon Lieber and Ben Sheets did not turn a profit for their respective owners in either LABR or Tout Wars. Miguel Batista earned $4 on a $6 bid in LABR, and Andy Ashby earned $6 on a $6 bid in LABR. The other 13 pitchers produced more value than their owners paid in both of the primary experts' league. So while the odds aren't overly favorable for netting a double-digit value for $5 or less, several starters in both leagues that cost $4 or less in the draft should earn around a $5 profit on your investment.