Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV above $14

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Johnson		24	0	2.32	1.03	334	71	197	260
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	35		52		28		38
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	39		57		31		38

Randy won his fourth straight Cy Young by leading the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, complete games, innings pitched, winning percentage, opposition batting average, and numerous other qualitative categories. While he earned nearly $10 in both wins and strikeouts, only he and Pedro earned $10 in both ERA and WHIP, making Randy the most valuable qualitative pitcher in the majors. Although his only career-best marks were his 24 wins and 1.42 G-F, that latter suggesting his .9 HR/9 should drop, I see no evidence that he won't maintain this level of excellence for another season. His numbers improved in the second half, largely on the strength of a sparkling .66 ERA on a 49:7 K:BB in 41 September innings, so feel free to spend up to $40 if you're interested in securing first-division finishes in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Curt Schilling		23	0	3.23	0.97	316	33	218	259.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	31		46		22		28
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	35		51		24		28

Most of his numbers were fantastic and should have earned him the Cy Young in most years. Unfortunately Schilling's September snooze coincided with Randy's left month, leaving his teammate holding the best stats in the league. However Schilling's only real problems in September were that he received slightly less defensive support and he allowed seven homers, tied for his highest total in any month, in 38.1 IP, tied for his least IP in any month in 2002. Therefore I don't see any glaring problem that would lead me to recommend against acquiring Schilling. While I'm generally more concerned about his health and performance than that of Randy's effectiveness, the favorable three-year age difference gives Schilling a superior long-term outlook. So although I'm not comfortable suggesting you approach $40 for Curt, I doubt you'll see a significant loss if you reach $35.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Odalis Perez		15	0	3.00	0.99	155	38	182	222.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	25		37		-6		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	25		36		-4		5

Not only did Perez's season obviously shock us given our projections, but I'm somewhat stunned that he joined Randy and Schilling as the only three NL starters among the 11 National League pitchers who earned $25 or more in 2002. Breaking down Perez's dominance, the first stat I notice is that his 38 walks were one fewer than his 2001 total despite pitching 127 more innings. Dodger Stadium will help mute the effects of a G-F rate that's fallen from 3.14 to 2.14 to 1.60 and now 1.36 over the course of his career, and he also doesn't need to improve his strikeout rate(6.3 '02; 7.1 pre-'02) to his previous levels to succeed. Perhaps the most impressive mark here is that he allowed a .600 OPS to left-handers and a .606 OPS against right-handed batters. I have no statistical concern here, especially since the changes to the Dodgers' lineup should help maintain his low hit rate, so my only worries stem from his injury history. After hitting 168 innings in 1998 at 21, he only managed a total of 211 IP over the next three years combined. Perez's jump from 118 innings in 2001 to 222 IP in 2002 ranks as an obvious red flag. You can bid to $19 based on his skill and upside, but please let him go if he reaches $20 or more since expecting him to pitch more than 200 innings in 2003 is overly optimistic.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Oswalt		19	0	3.01	1.19	208	62	215	233
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		31		19		18
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	23		33		19		24

The best young starter for nearly any fantasy game quickly matured into an ace in his first full big league season. We're not even worried about injury troubles here since despite a jump from 172 to 233 IP, Houston never let him exceed 126 pitches and recognizes the need to take care of his arm. There's simply nothing in Oswalt's skills not to like, especially since his skills have remained largely the same since he signed in 1997 as a 23rd round draft-and-follow. Don't let him go for less than $20, and if you're going to bid into the upper $20s on a young pitcher, Oswalt is the one to choose.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Millwood		18	0	3.24	1.16	178	65	186	217
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		28		6		8
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	20		30		7		11

I see no obvious reason to expect him to suffer from either burnout or further injury troubles as his IP total was between his 228 from 1999 and the 212 innings he pitched in 2000. His career-best 1.22 G-F and .7 HR/9, along with very good marks of 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 7.7 H/9 all suggest an ability to not only maintain his current production but perhaps even lower his ERA below 3.00 in 2003. Philly's defense should provide similar protection to what he received in Atlanta, and he should receive a nice bump in run support. I'll be surprised if he doesn't receive a few Cy Young votes this season, and John Schuerholz's insane error in dealing Millwood will rank right behind his David Cone-for-Ed Hearn swap when arguing that Shuerholz does not belong in the Hall. Only Millwood's health problems in 2001 keep from recommending him as strongly as Roy Oswalt, however he's still an elite starter, worthy of a significant bid in any league.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Greg Maddux		16	0	2.62	1.20	118	45	194	199.1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		28		23		26
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	19		27		22		26

Maddux made his first trip to the DL in 2002, so while his qualitative numbers still rank with the best pitchers in baseball, we can no longer expect 230 or more innings from him. Yet he didn't suffer from arm problems, and Randy Johnson is merely one example of a pitcher overcoming back problems. Maddux's decision to accept the Braves' offer of arbitration could key another excellent year as he strives to earn one more significant payday. The odds of him joining San Diego for the opening of their new park in 2004 look very good to me, as I don't see a need for any offensive additions with Xavier Nady and Khalil Greene set to reach the majors at the end of this season. So Maddux likely knows that he'll be well-compensated of GMs believe he'll contend for more CYs even as he hits 38 in 2004. I'm somewhat concerned that Maddux hasn't posted a walk rate as high as 2.0 or a strikeout rate as low as 5.3 in a decade, but since his second-half numbers improved to a 5.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, I expect he'll continue to excel for the foreseeable future. He's a perfectly solid buy in the low $20s.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tom Glavine		18	0	2.96	1.28	127	78	210	224.2
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	17		25		14		13
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	17		25		13		14

Glavine, rather than begin the age-induced slide that many expected, instead contended for another Cy Young thanks to an incredible April. However his ERA should approach a 4.00 in 2003 as his skills still look very shaky. Neither his 5.1 K/9 nor 3.1 BB/9 are overly solid marks, and a career-worst 1.06 G-F suggests his .8 homer rate will rise. In the second half of 2003 he posted 7 wins and a 3.93 ERA on a terrible 52:43 K:BB in 94 IP with 100 hits and 9 homers, and a quick doubling of these totals leaves us with 14 wins, a 3.93 ERA, and a 1.46 WHIP, numbers that look very reasonable for projecting his 2003 performance. The only reason to target Glavine at the likely going rate of around $20 is that he's compiled a 2.03 ERA over the last three Aprils, nearly a run better than his performance any other month, so you could buy him and then deal him before May Day.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Wolf		11	0	3.20	1.12	172	63	172	210.2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	17		25		15		10
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	19		27		15		14

A four-year contract gives him security as the Phillies #2 starter and sole lefty, and the improves Phillies' offense makes him a good candidate for 20 wins, a remarkable potential achievement since he's never won a dozen games in a single Major League season. I doubt many owners will realize that Wolf nearly earned $20 in 2002, and since he exhibited no further elbow soreness after returning in April, hopefully your competition will remember his injury history and limit their bidding. His career-best .99 G-F keeps us from worrying about his 1.0 homer rate, and his 7.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 7.3 BB/9 are nearly identical to Kevin Millwood's 2002 skills. Wolf is the safest NL left-handed starter to purchase after Randy, anyone investing in the Phillies' aces can expect a $40 return and a chance at 20 wins.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Vincente Padilla		14	0	3.28	1.22	128	53	198	206
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		22		11		3
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	15		22		12		7

No rotation in baseball will likely improve as much as Philadelphia's five starters, and the only guy at all likely to regress is Padilla in their #3 slot. His innings nearly doubled in his first full year of starting. While only a 5.6 K/9 detracts from his otherwise excellent numbers, I still believe he'll experience mild burnout, finishing closer to his second-half marks of a 3.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP rather than the 3.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP from his All-Star first half. Obviously these numbers are still very good, and a couple extra wins thanks to the Phillies' improves offense should negate any decrease in his qualitative contribution. However don't expect a profit from any bid over $15.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
A.J. Burnett		12	0	3.30	1.19	203	90	153	204.1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		21		6		9
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	17		25		7		7

Rarely do potential nicknames appear more obvious than "Burnout" for A.J. He was easily the most abused youngster in baseball last year as he exceeded 121 pitches nine times; Randy reached and 10 outings of a 122 pitches or more and only Livan Hernandez joined Burnett at nine outings above 121 pitches. Burnett experienced elbow problems in August that led to a DL trip, and both Burnett and manager Jeff Torborg expressed the belief that he wouldn't pitch again in 2002. Yet they pulled him off the DL for four games and two starts at the end of September, an obscene decision given that he always could have pitched in the Instructional League if they wanted him to test his elbow in a game situation. Burnett, who turned early this month, has nearly as much potential as any starter in the game, however I'm extremely concerned about his arm's health and don't expect the weak Marlins' offense to allow him to win more than another dozen games. Even if his qualitative marks improve, the expectation that he'll pitch less innings in 2002 keeps his value relatively low, leading me to recommend you not exceed the lower teens in bidding for him even in 5x5 leagues given the number of less risky alternatives likely available.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unlike the American League, where the majority of expensive starters finished among the most valuable in 2002, only Curt Schilling and Roy Oswalt turned a profit among any starter costing $15 or more. Both the lack of a DH and the presence of most of the best pitchers' park in the majors, including Dodger Stadium, Petco(Qualcomm), Shea, Turner, and PacBell, make young National Leaguers with good skills much better bets than their AL counterparts with the exception of Mariners' youngsters. Although I believe grabbing an ace in the AL makes sense, unless you plan on purchasing Randy, Schilling, or a dominant youngster like Oswalt, Millwood, or Wolf, you probably should plan to pay $10-12 on two or three different NL starters. History suggests an inexpensive NL staff could turn a significant profit as long as he you can cycle through pitchers to find the right combination.