Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV below $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

97.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luis de los Santos		0	0	11.57	2.00	7	4	24	14
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-6
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-7

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Tampa Bay Prospects for comments on de los Santos.

98.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luke Prokopec		2	0	6.78	1.60	41	25	90	71.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-4		-7		-2		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-4		-6		1		5

Prokopec's season-ending arm surgery, combined with his .70 career G-F ratio, selection by Cincinnati as a Rule 5 pick, and nonexistent AAA experience make him a terrible pick in any 2003 draft. We have no evidence he'll contribute to fantasy teams even when healthy, so there's no reason to waste a pick in even the deepest of leagues on someone likely to miss 2003 and spend most of 2004 in the minors.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Sparks		8	0	5.52	1.61	98	67	238	189
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		13		4
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-4		13		6

Although Sparks is likely to return to the rotation for much of 2003, recent announcements from the Tigers indicate they're looking alternatives to keeping their knuckleballer as a starter, especially since he holds more value to a developing team as a long reliever who can pitch whenever necessary. He allowed one more homer than the 22 he allowed in 2002 though his innings decreased by 43, and he walked three extra batters while also striking out 18 less opponents. Given his age and the general inconsistency of knuckleballers, I'm uncomfortable gambling even a buck or two on Sparks for 2003 even though he excelled in 2001.

100.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Lima		4	0	7.77	1.57	33	21	86	68.1
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		-7		1		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-7		2		1

Lima demonstrated much better command in his 8 games out of the bullpen, yet his .74 G-F supports his poor 1.6 HR/9. Only an excellent defense looks able to provide him with a sufficiently low hit rate to allow him to pitch effectively with his diminished dominance. Despite his past success, there's no justification for owning Lima until he compiles decent marks in the majors for a few weeks.

101.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shawn Sedlacek		3	0	6.72	1.60	52	36	99	84.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-7
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-6

Sedlacek's demotion to the bullpen in September was a bizarre overreaction by the Royals, albeit not an unexpected move since they fail to realize that his hit and homer problems are more result of Kansas City's weak defense and unforgiving ballpark than a skill deficiency of Sedlacek. Over the past two years he started 24 games at AAA Omaha, posting a 110:37 K:BB in 161.1 innings with 165 H and 19 homers, so there's no reason for him to spend more tie in the bullpen, and as he's pitched effectively for most of his minor league career, he deserves a greater shot than merely fourteen Major League starts. Now he certainly needs to improve to succeed in the majors given his questionable marks in essentially every skill category, however he might surprise in 2003 given his minor league performances, making him a moderately interesting pick in a late reserve round if he earns a rotation spot in the spring.

102.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Erickson		5	0	5.55	1.62	74	68	192	160.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-7		-4		R
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-5		-2		3

Baltimore handled Erickson's rehab as badly as any injury situation in recent memory by first rushing him back into the rotation and then failing to trade him when he still held some value early in the season. The only positive skill Erickson displayed in 2002 was a continuation of his extreme groundball habits, so hopefully they'll let him spend the last year of his current contract in the bullpen since he might be able to contribute in a reduced role. Unfortunately since an offseason examination discovered a torn labrum for which the Orioles want him to rehab instead of undergoing more surgery, leaving us to strongly recommend owning him even if he gets traded into a better situation.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Parque		1	0	9.95	1.97	13	16	34	25.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-5		-7		-6		R
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-5		-8		-5

Parque still hasn't displayed decent command since his debut in the Carolina League after the Sox drafted him in 1997. His performance at AAA Charlotte(IL) last year failed to impress anyone as he compiled a 7-9 record and 6.47 ERA on 63:38 K:BB in 105.2 IP with 131 H and 21 HR. Chicago rightfully non-tendered him after this atrocious campaign, however I wish the Sox could take responsibility for their incomprehensible treatment of Parque in both rushing him to the majors and overworking him as a starter. Tampa Bay unfortunately isn't likely to treat him much better, and as Parque even morphed into a flyball pitcher in 2002, I can't imagine the circumstances in which I'd want to own him this season.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tanyon Sturtze		4	0	5.18	1.61	137	89	271	224
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-8		3		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-3		5		2

I see no evidence that Sturtze will provide Toronto with anything more than 200 of the least effective innings in the majors, and Ricciardi certainly should have found superior minor league free agents. He even signed a couple of promising minor league vets like Doug Linton before blowing a million on Sturtze. Now I have no problem with this move if they leave Sturtze in the pen while looking at youngsters like Justin Miller and Mark Hendrickson. Sturtze held opponents to a .680 OPS in the first inning and limited batters to a .788 OPS through three innings. However he shows little ability to succeed when throwing between 31 and 100 pitches, giving him decent value in the bullpen but little in the rotation. Only risk a buck in the deepest of leagues if he stays in relief.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Todd Ritchie		5	0	6.06	1.71	77	52	176	133.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-10		9		10
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-5		-8		10		11

Only a decent April performance saved Ritchie from the title of worst Major League pitcher in 2002, an "honor" that barely went to Steve Sparks. I expect a decent amount of owners to be fairly tempted to acquire Ritchie as they look for the promise of 1999, however aside from a defense-induced drop in his 2001 hit rate, most of Ritchie's skills have gradually deteriorated over the past few seasons. With his strikeout and G-F rate in particular crashing, I don't see anything here that suggests a notable rebound. So while I expect him to win around 10 games as the Brewers' third starter, his qualitative stats seem likely to negate his quantitative value.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Drese		10	0	6.55	1.73	102	62	176	137.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-10		4		3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-7		6		3

Cleveland's inclusion of Drese with Einar Diaz for Travis Hafner and Aaron Myette is mildly surprising since you don't generally see two of four worst roto pitchers in a season get traded for each other. The primary reason Texas wanted Drese is that he has one minor league option remaining and can spend 2003 in the minors. Only Texas' growing pitching depth keeps me from recommending him as a minor league draft pick since his 2001 minor league marks definitely impressed me. Drese posted a 10-8 record and a 3.62 ERA on a 125:46 K:BB in 146.2 IP with 124 H and 11 HR allowed in 23 starts(25G) between AA Akron(EL) and AAA Buffalo(IL). While his control problems in 2002 certainly hurt him, the worst defense in baseball provided him with little help. His 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 1.25 G-F indicate he still possesses significant long-term potential, and I expect him to emerge as a viable starting candidate by the second half of 2003 after he dominates for a few months at AAA, so just look to FAAB him when recalled.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Abbott		1	0	11.96	2.28	22	20	40	26.1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-11		3		6
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	-7		-10		4		7

A torn labrum cost Abbott nearly all of 2002, however his skills were slipping rather badly prior to his injury. He hasn't demonstrated decent command since 1999 and only the Mariners' great defense kept his ERA much below 5.00 in 2000 and 2001. I'll be surprised if Abbott ever positively contributes in the majors again, so keep him off your fantasy teams.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jaret Wright		2	0	15.71	3.22	12	19	40	18.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-8		-12		-2
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-8		-12		-2

Wright joins fellow perennially-injured and ineffective teammate Chuck Nagy in San Diego for 2003 as part of the Padres' "veterans are good because our terrible defense alone can't explain the failures of so many of young pitchers" program. Of course the odds of Wright contributing any helpful innings to San Diego are extremely low since he's still recovering from Cleveland's moronic decision to allow Wright to pitch 190.1 innings at age 21 and 187 innings at age 22. The upside here is that Wright continues to post decent strikeout rates, including a 7.0 K/9 in Buffalo and 5.9 K/9 in the majors, suggesting that only Cleveland's insistence in keeping him in the rotation prevented him from emerging as an intriguing reliever. I wouldn't be shocked to see Wright closing games within the next three years, however his perpetually terrible performances in recent years mean we need to wait until he demonstrates good control in the majors before recommending him.

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Myette		2	0	10.06	2.17	48	41	64	48.1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-14
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-8		-12				R

The 288th and worst fantasy pitcher in the American League in 2002, Myette's disastrous performance with Texas appears totally incongruous with his continually solid minor league numbers. He posted a 7-4 record and 3.14 ERA on a 106:44 K:BB in 106 IP over 16 GS with 86 H and 5 HR allowed at AAA Oklahoma(PCL), so his severe control and homer problems in the majors make little sense. Now I'm concerned about his homer rates since he's a flyball pitcher, and moving to Cleveland gives him an even worse defense behind him than Texas provided. However, despite his career 7.88 ERA in 147.1 innings over the last four years, I see enough development in his minor league numbers to believe that he warrants another chance. Gambling owners could find a nice sleeper here, although please don't select him unless you can reserve him at your leisure, thereby limiting your team's exposure in qualitative categories.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with the first day of National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I won't even be slightly surprised if the worst five AL starters in 2002 wind up earning significantly more fantasy value in 2003 than the dozen players immediately preceding them over the last two days of articles. Abbott shouldn't see more than a couple innings, and if Wright remains in the bullpen, Drese gets another half-season in AAA, and Ritchie and Myette rebound to no worse than $0, you'll at least find some nice potential roster filler at the end of today's list. Myette in particular posted solid recent minor league numbers and he could emerge as a valuable swingman for Cleveland, worth a $1 flyer in deep leagues if he breaks camp with the Indians.