Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV of $-2 and $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Justin Miller		9	0	5.54	1.65	68	66	103	102.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		-3

A superfluous scan of Miller's skills shows a relatively solid pitcher in most areas who compiled a 6.0 K/9, 9.1 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and a 1.34 G-F. His problem was a glaringly bad 5.8 walk rate, a surprisingly high mark given his 3.2 BB/9 in both 8 starts at AAA Syracuse(IL) this year and over 200 innings for AAA Sacramento(PCL) the previous two seasons. While his control problems are worrisome, I don't see he has much to prove in AAA, and his minor league history suggests he merits a longer look in a big league rotation. Miller could earn anywhere from $-5 to $10 in 2003, but I'd only gamble a couple bucks in leagues where you can reserve him at your leisure.

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Esteban Loaiza		9	0	5.71	1.52	87	38	192	151.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-2		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		-2		-2		R

Loiaza hasn't allowed less hits than innings pitched since a decade ago in the Sally League, placing him among the outlying group of pitcher who allow a high number of hits regardless of their team's defense. The perpetual hit problems also explain why his homer rate is usually above 1.0 despite good G-F marks. A solid 2.3 walk rate helps him compensate for his increasingly weak dominance, but even though some of his skills look fairly good, he's never posted an ERA below 4.13 or even cracked 4.56 in several years. Taking him with an Ultra pick might provide you some IP insurance if he lands in a good situation, however Loiaza does not appear to hold much value at the moment.

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Kinney		2	0	4.64	1.68	45	33	78	66
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-4		-4		R

Kinney's command has faltered badly in his two Major League seasons, and high walk rates in the upper minors don't suggest he'll remedy that problem in the near future. His .81 G-F also supports his poor 1.8 homer rate. Milwaukee's acquisition of Kinney gives him a much better chance at earning a rotation spot in 2003 than he possessed with the Twins, but Milwaukee will neither provide the offensive nor defensive support necessary to give him much value. Therefore while I wouldn't mind him on my bench in deeper league, I'll be surprised if he either displays decent skills or earn Positive Draft Value

77.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Seth Greisinger		2	0	6.21	1.57	14	13	46	37.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-3

Greisinger hasn't posted a 2.0 K:BB since his 1997 debut at AA Jacksonville(SL). As he also missed almost all of the three seasons prior to 2002, he would have needed to fairly dominate to deserve much fantasy consideration from us for next season. As he struggled at best after leaving his AA rehab assignment, I see no reason to roster him in the foreseeable future, and I don't expect him to find much success unless he moves to the bullpen.

78.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Cornejo		1	0	5.04	1.62	23	18	63	50
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		9		R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-4		9		1

Cornejo desperately needs another year of AAA to refine his command, but he fortunately made strong strides towards emerging as a solid starter. A 3.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 2.23 G-F give him a solid foundation of skill even his 4.1 K/9 and 11.3 H/9 are rather atrocious. His minor league marks from this year don't inspire too much confidence as Cornejo posted a 9-8 record and a 4.42 ERA on 86:31 K:BB in 132.1 IP with 163 H and 11 HR in 21 games at AAA Toledo(IL), so I'd definitely like to see a bump in his strikeout rate. Cornejo will struggle if left in the rotation at the beginning of the season, and as Detroit has a few good pitching prospects approaching the majors, he also doesn't offer much upside as a reserve pick.

79.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris George		0	0	5.60	1.65	13	8	37	27.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-3		0		R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-5		0

Comparison of George to Tom Glavine look fairly ridiculous as George hasn't posted a 2.0 K:BB since 1999 at A+ Wilmington(Car). Between his poor 2002 minor league performance of a 5.87 ERA on 94:65 K:BB in 127.1 IP with 145 H and 15 HR at AAA Omaha(PCL), his matching 5.60 ERAs in his two Major League stints, and his injury problems last season, I don't view him as a draftable commodity. Leave George to those milling old prospect annuals for forgotten sleepers, and only his young age gives him decent long-term upside.

80.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Kozlowski		0	0	6.30	2.20	6	11	11	10
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on Kozlowski.

81.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Erik Hiljus		3	0	6.50	1.60	29	21	52	45.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		2		4
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-5		5		9

Hiljus' flyball tendency, subsequent homer problems, and diminishing dominance limit his upside. Yet only a terrible hit rate ruined his 37.2 IP at AAA as his 30:15 K:BB and 3 homers allowed look fine to me. While I think he'd benefit from moving to relief work and could help the Athletics as a long reliever and spot starter, there's enough potential in his skills to warrant him remaining in a rotation. Although he could emerge as a solid option for some team by the second of 2003, wait to see him post solid skills in the majors before rostering him.

82.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shane Loux		0	0	9.00	1.57	7	3	19	14
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-4

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Loux.

83.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wes Obermueller		0	0	11.74	2.09	5	2	14	7.2
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Kansas City Prospects for comments on Obermueller.

84.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adrian Hernandez		0	0	12.00	2.67	9	6	10	6
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-4		-3

Only a slightly elevated number of baserunners kept Hernandez from posting very impressive marks in AAA, yet I remain concerned about both his workload and ability to remain effective in a rotation. Hernandez looks able to dominate in relief if his high number of usable pitches didn't lead virtually every scout observing him into believing that Hernandez must remain a starter. If he earns a bullpen spot in Spring Training he definitely could earn a few bucks, so consider selecting him in Dollar Days or as a reserve pick if he breaks camp in the majors.

85.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Durbin		0	0	11.88	2.04	5	4	13	8.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		0		R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-5		1		1

The Royals followed their established pattern with Durbin by watching him dominate A-ball, begin struggling at AA, and then instead of giving him more development time, immediately promote him to the majors and place him on the Omaka-KC shuttle. He spent most of 2002 on the DL like many other young and overworked pitchers and now he'll miss next season thanks to arm surgery, so the Royals rewarded him for suffering their abuse by non-tendering him in December. Durbin just turned 25 in December and his minor league numbers suggest decent long-term upside, likely as a reliever, however there's no reason to own him in 2003.

86.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Miguel Asencio		4	0	5.11	1.62	58	64	136	123.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		-3
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		-5		-3		R

I wouldn't be surprised if he began the year in the Royals' rotation even though he probably should begin the year in AA after his wasted 2002. Asencio didn't even display great dominance or control in the Florida State League before KC selected him the Rule 5 draft a year ago, so aside from a solid 1.41 G-F, all his other skills were far below what we'd like to see. There's no reason to own him until he demonstrates command above A-ball.

87.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Delvin James		0	0	6.55	1.60	17	15	40	34.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-4		0
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-3		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Tampa Bay Prospects for comments on James.

88.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chan Ho Park		9	0	5.75	1.59	121	78	154	145.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		18		17
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-5		20		18

Oscar Acosta's militaristic approach to pitching kept Park from both properly preparing for the season and pitching effectively in the first half. Park's second half, where he posted a 6-4 record and 4.28 ERA on 76:49 K:BB in 88.1 IP with 90 H and 10 HR, gives us a much better baseline for what we can expect from him in 2003. As Park's never possessed good command, I'm not too concerned about his walk rate as he remained a top strikeout pitcher. Consider Park a fantastic sleeper in 5x5 leagues he'll easily reach 200 strikeouts if healthy, and improvements in both his qualitative stats and his wins could push him into the mid-teens.

89.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joaquin Benoit		4	1	5.31	1.76	59	58	91	84.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	0		-1

I keep thinking of the beignets at Café Dumonde in New Orleans whenever I see his name, and his minor league numbers suggest I'll be thinking of a lot of beignets over the next decade. After an acceptable yet unimpressive seasons in 2001, Benoit returned to AAA Oklahoma(PCL) in 2002 and posted an 8-4 record and 3.56 ERA on 103:37 K:BB in 98.2 IP with 74 H and 8 HR. His performance is more intriguing since Texas promoted him three times before letting him finish the year in the majors. Benoit, along with Colby Lewis, is the co-favorite for the 4th and 5th spots in the Ragners rotation, so while I'm concerned about his short-term value thanks to his command problems, he easily could earn a few bucks in 2003. Feel to bid a couple dollars on Benoit if you don't mind the risk to your qualitative numbers.

90.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Cooper		0	0	14.04	2.16	3	4	14	8.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		-3
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-5		-3

Acquiring Cooper for Brad Fullmer looks like one of the more lopsided trades of last offseason even when considering the multi-million dollar salary difference. Cooper hasn't demonstrated good skills since 1999, and a 9-9 record and 5.09 ERA on a 71:46 K:BB in 155.2 IP with 176 H and 19 HR at AAA Syracuse(IL) last season suggests he won't return to the majors in the near future. I see no roto value here for 2003.

91.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pat Hentgen		0	0	7.77	1.86	11	10	31	22
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5		-1
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-4		-6		-2

Hentgen hinted at decent stats after joining Baltimore in 2001, but arm surgery that kept him out for almost all of the last two seasons eviscerated his value. He perpetually suffers from poor command and high hit and homer rates. A return to Baltimore keeps his value quite low as he'll receive little run support and likely post poor qualitative marks. Don't spend more than a mid-round reserve pick on Hentgen even if desperate for innings.

92.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bryan Rekar		0	0	15.43	2.57	2	6	12	7
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-4		-6

Rekar continues to post high homer rates despite developing into a groundball pitcher after leaving Colorado following the 1997 season. He still owns good control yet his lack of dominance and perpetually elevated hit totals leave his ERA vulnerable to bad bullpens, and he's spent the last four years with Tampa Bay and now Kansas City. Even though his 108:41 K:BB in 147 AAA innings looks fairly good, neither his 203 hits nor 18 homers allowed are near acceptable numbers. I don't see a logical reason for owning Rekar in the foreseeable future.

93.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Parris		5	0	5.97	1.74	48	35	96	75.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		2
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-4		-7		1

His G-F dipped below 1.00 after decreasing most years of his career, and even his injury troubles don't justify the dreadful 97:76 K:BB he's compiled in 181 innings over the last two years. Parris hasn't posted solid overall numbers since 1998, and he's earned very little roto value since leaving Cincinnati. I don't expect his current trends to change after joining Tampa Bay, making him a poor selection in the vast majority of leagues.

94.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Towers		0	0	7.90	1.72	13	5	42	27.1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		0		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5		1		2

Towers posted a solid 43:14 K:BB in 69 innings after his demotion to AAA Rochester(IL), however his 109 hits and 16 homers allowed pushed his ERA to 7.57. He historically succeeds on the basis of superb control and passable dominance, but after compiling G-F ratios of .79 and .77 in his two years in the majors, I doubt Towers will see much long-term success unless he can limit his homers by developing a sinker or similar groundball-inducing pitch. He's much too risky to draft at this time even though moving the Blue Jays will provide him with an increased chance of improvement.

95.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rob Bell		4	0	6.22	1.57	70	35	113	94
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-6				R

Bell certainly looks out of options to me yet will struggle to remain in the majors thanks to his inconsistent performance and the Rangers' ever-increasing pitching depth. He pitched effectively at AAA Oklahoma while compiling a 5-0 record and 4.06 ERA on a 55:25 K:BB in 75.1 IP with 70 H and 10 HR, and a 70:35 K:BB in 94 IP in the majors, along with a 1.14 G-F, suggests he's still developing. While I don't know if he'd succeed if thrust back into the rotation, Bell looked set to contribute in long relief until the signings of Esteban Yan and Ugueth Urbina pushed Todd Van Poppel into the long relief role. Bell's worth a Dollar Days gamble if he makes the team in the bullpen, however I don't expect him to earn much job security within the next year or two.

96.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Lyon		1	0	6.53	1.56	30	19	78	62
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		9		4
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-4		9		1

Lyon failed to build on his impressive 2001 debut as his homer rate ballooned from .9 to 2.0 and his hit rate increased from 9.0 to 11.3. Yet he rebounded to some extent at AAA Syracuse with a 35:19 K:BB in 75.2 IP with 99 H and 4 HR allowed in 14 starts. I think Ricciardi made a definite mistake in waiving Lyon to add players like Jeff Tam, and Boston's wise claim of the 23-year-old adds another promising youngster to a formerly unimpressive 40-man roster. While he's not worth a minor league draft pick, a $1 gamble on Lyon shouldn't hurt you if he breaks camp with Boston, although he's more likely to head to AAA for most of the year before helping during the second half as an injury replacement.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Essentially every pitcher in today's article he suffers from a severe skill deficiency, faced serious injury problems this season, or spend almost all year in the minors aside from a spot start or two. While I like the upside of some of minor leaguers, of the veterans only Chan Ho Park seems likely to even reach $5 in 2003 barring someone's unexpected conversion to the bullpen.