Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV of $0 and $-1

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Moehler		3	0	4.86	1.44	31	13	78	63
DET/CIN		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0		-2		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	0		-1		-2

Moehler essentially posted league-average marks in ERA and WHIP, so his unimpressive quantitative totals left him with little overall value. His ERA is also surprisingly high as he received little defensive support and posted a 1.6 homer rate, almost a third higher than his previous worst mark and significantly above what we'd expect given his career history and decent 1.29 G-F. A 4.4 strikeout rate is bad but not far from his marks before his season-ending injury in April of 2001, and a 1.9 BB/9 nicely counteracts the poor K/9. I'm concerned about the general effects of Minute Maid due to Moehler's homer rate now that he's joined the Astros, however he'll receive solid support and his great control will keep his WHIP respectable. A buck or two gambled here could pay nice dividends as long as you can remove him from your roster easily if he begins struggling.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cliff Lee		0	0	1.74	1.35	6	8	6	10.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Lee.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Harang		5	0	4.83	1.57	64	45	78	78.1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0

Harang enters Spring Training as the favorite for the A's fifth starter's job, but the recent signings of John Halama and Ed Yarnall provide him with greater competition than Erik Hiljus and the Athletics' prospects who just reached AA in 2002. While he dominated in 11 starts between AA Midland and AAA Sacramento, posting a 5-3 record on 60:16 K:BB in 57.1 IP with 53 H and only a single homer allowed, I fail to see the skills consistency normally required for a significant bid. A .67 G-F suggests his .8 HR/9 will increase, and a 5.2 walk rate gives him an unacceptable WHIP. Even if Harang wins the job and stays in the rotation all year, he'll still fail to reach double-digit value, and after his impressive midseason debut in 2002, I doubt you can snag him for the few dollars I expect him to earn.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Doug Davis		3	0	4.98	1.49	28	22	67	59.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	0		-1		3		3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-1		5		6

After displaying relatively poor command for the last two seasons, Davis returned to Oklahoma for half of 2002 and posted a 48:11 KBB in 61.1 innings. Unfortunately there's no indication in any of his other numbers, especially in his Major League marks, that he's ready to mature into an effective pitcher. His .95 G-F in the majors this year was about 25% worse than his G-F ratios the previous two seasons, and while Texas gives him decent run support, they provide little help on defense and the Ballpark doesn't help his homer problems. Davis looks no better than an endgame gamble if you have a deep reserve list, especially since I don't expect him to spend much of 2003 in the majors given the Rangers' suddenly deep bullpen and the presence of Park, Thomson, Valdes, Benoit, and Colby Lewis in the rotation.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Burba		5	0	5.20	1.46	95	57	155	145.1
TEX/CLE		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1		-4		1
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	1		1		-1		2

He'll stay in Cleveland another season as a spot starter and long reliever, and since their offensive, defensive, and bullpen woes seem likely to continue as they rebuild for 2004, Burba could post some ugly qualitative numbers without contributing many wins or strikeouts. His stats didn't even improve during his 14 relief outings in 2002, and a strikeout rate below 6.0 leaves him with little upside. Unless he impresses once the year begins I don't see a logical reason for rostering Burba in 2003.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Mays		4	0	5.38	1.45	38	25	113	95.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	0		-1		17		14
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1		17		11

His performance in the second half after returning from the DL looks far more reasonable as Mays posted a 4.52 ERA on 35:18 K:BB in 83.2 IP with 91 H and 10 HR. The most disturbing trend here is that his strikeout rate has fallen from 6.1 to 3.6 within four years as his G-F ratio has dropped from 1.54 to 1.18. In his breakout season of 2001, Mays' .235/.286/.365 was stunningly better than his second best year of 1999, when he compiled a .270/.332/.443 line. So the major improvement seems more connection with a superior Twins' defense than with a skill surge from Mays. His walk rate was even better in 2002 than in 2001, leaving me to conclude that while I expect Minnesota to provide him with better help on defense in 2003 due to a more consistent lineup, his ERA looks unlikely to fall below 4.50. Mays' value should loiter in the upper single-digits unless his skills surprisingly improve.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricardo Rodriguez		2	0	5.66	1.40	24	18	40	41.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Rodriguez.

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Powell		1	0	4.84	1.47	30	21	64	57.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-2

Powell's now posted impressive minor league numbers for two straight years, and his 10-3 record and 3.92 ERA on 82:28 K:BB in 119.1 IP with 127 H and 8 HR over 20 GS at AAA Toledo suggests he holds value for a smart franchise. Yet he's compiled a 93:73 K:BB in 175.2 IP in four Major League seasons. His splits indicate he could develop into a decent middle reliever since right-handers don't hit too well against him, but unfortunately left-handers crushed Powell's offerings for a .922 OPS in 2002. We certainly can't recommend him until he demonstrates some skills in the majors, however his overall performance suggests he could approach double-digit value under the right circumstances in a few years.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason C. Phillips		1	0	4.97	1.46	23	20	41	41.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-2

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Phillips.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dewon Brazelton		0	0	4.85	1.38	5	6	12	13
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2				1
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-3				R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Tampa Bay Prospects for comments on Brazelton.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darren Oliver		4	0	4.66	1.67	32	27	70	58
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-5
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		-2		-4		R

Oliver hasn't allowed an OOPS below .856 in three seasons, so Boston looked perfectly justified in releasing him. St. Louis gave him five AAA starts in which he flamed out to a 7.88 ERA on 9:17 K:BB in 16 IP with 17 H and 1 HR. This winter's purge of expensive veterans also will limit his chances to return to the majors in the near future, so his best hope is probably an attempt to reinvent himself as a left-handed reliever. Oliver is not someone I can envision owning on any fantasy team in the foreseeable future.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
James Baldwin		7	0	5.28	1.52	88	49	179	150
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		4		6
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-3		6		6

As he signed with Kansas City yesterday, Baldwin now looks like the Royals' logical Opening Day starter and workhorse unless Baird and Tony Turntable remain determined to slag the arms of all their promising young pitchers. Now I recognize that Baldwin will perform terribly barring a shocking turn of events, but Kansas City needs someone to absorb innings and he's racked at least 150 IP for seven straight seasons. He obviously possesses zero roto value for the moment since he's moving from one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball and a team with a very good defense, solid offense, and quality bullpen to a great hitters park and a poor all-around franchise. Baldwin's weak dominance, questionable control, and perpetually high homer rates also make him a poor choice under almost any circumstance, however he'll at least earn a little value if your league counts innings while ignoring all qualitative categories.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darrell May		4	0	5.35	1.48	95	50	144	131.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2		-8		R
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		-2		-5		1

His numbers from four years in Japan suggest excellent dominance and good command but not the consistent performances that warrant a team to remain very committed to a player of questionable skill. A .78 G-F helps explain his 1.9 homer rate and .856 OOPS, so I don't see the justification for keeping May in the rotation since he demonstrated much better command out of the bullpen with a 19:4 K:BB in 16 innings. Of course the 20 hits and 4 homers he allowed in those 16 innings led to a 7.88 ERA which probably clouds the Royals' judgment. May's homer problems and the general downside of all Kansas City pitchers makes him unusable in roto even if he breaks camp as their #4 starter as currently expected, and I don't see him attaining much value unless he learns a groundball pitch while moving to the pen.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jon Rauch		2	0	6.59	1.47	19	14	28	28.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		-3		R
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0		-2		R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (A) Prospects for comments on Rauch.

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Carpenter		4	0	5.28	1.58	45	27	89	73.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		2		6
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		5		9

Carpenter's arm problems should keep him out for the vast majority of 2003, which is why St. Louis secured him for up to two years for only a meager investment despite his lurking potential. While never a dominant pitcher, he's demonstrated decent command at times over the last six years, yet the hype surrounding him as a former 1st round pick means nearly everyone places unreasonable expectations on him. Between poor 2002 performance and the possibility he'll move back to the AL in 2004, you definitely should not draft Carpenter in even the deepest of leagues.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Stephens		2	0	6.09	1.38	56	22	68	65
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-2		0		R
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-1		-2		-1

We've been impressed with Stephens for a few seasons since while scouts hate him for his limited velocity and lack of a dominant pitch, he's fooled hitters with fantastic command at every level at which he's played. He posted an 11-3 record and 3.03 ERA on 118:23 K:BB in 142.2 IP with 126 H and 10 HR over 21 starts at AAA Rochester in 2002 before a mid-season promotion to Baltimore. Stephens' only significant problem with the Orioles was a surprisingly high 1.8 homer rates thanks to a .87 G-F ratio, yet if we remove his disastrous debut from his stats, he compiled a 55:21 K:BB in 62 IP with 58 H and 10 HR, suggesting he's close to emerging as a solid rotation member. So instead of allowing to continue developing in the majors after 200 great AAA innings, Baltimore signed Omar Daal and Pat Hentgen while failing to trade Scott Erickson, a series of moves that virtually guarantees Stephens will return to the minors for another few months. His roto upside warrants a minor league pick in leagues where's he available, and if he surprisingly breaks camp with the team, I'd happily bid a few bucks since his MLEs portray a pitcher capable of reaching $20 in the next few years.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Calvin Maduro		2	0	5.56	1.52	29	22	64	56.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-3		4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-4		4		R

Maduro pitched pretty badly for the Orioles in the two months between his DL stints. Given his currently terrible skills and three straight years of poor performances, there's no reason to roster Maduro again until he posts decent numbers during both a couple months in the minors and a few weeks back in the majors.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you're going to gamble on a young pitcher on a team like Cleveland or Kansas City, target the ones who've displayed the most recent solid strikeout rates without suffering from overt control problems. Cliff Lee and Jeremy Affeldt are probably the best of fairly questionable lots for roto purposes, yet while each could use a half-season in AAA, they showed the best potential on their respective teams in 2002 and only need to remain healthy to emerge as solid fantasy options by midseasion.