Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers from $1 to $4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Danny Wright		14	0	5.18	1.38	136	71	200	196.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		-2
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	6		9		0		1

Wright pitched 66.1 innings for Chicago in 2000, but aside from a drop in his G-F from 1.61 to 1.13, he improved all his other skills in his first full year in the majors. Of course these numbers still are quite impressive considering the Sox never let him throw to a single batter at AAA. I'm somewhat concerned that both righties and lefties compiled an OPS over .750 against him, but since neither reached .790, at least he doesn't suffer from a platoon split. More impressively, Wright dramatically improved in the second half, dropping his ERA from 5.72 to 4.61 as his strikeout rate jumped from 5.4 to 7.1, his walk rate dropped from 3.6 to 2.9, and while a 1.4 homer rate isn't good, it's better than his 1.5 before the Break. His home problems and flyball tendency seem likely to keep his ERA above 4.5 for one more season, however Chicago's offense will allow him to cruise past 15 wins as he likely approaches $10 in 2003.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Maroth		6	0	4.48	1.34	58	36	136	128.2
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	4		5

Maroth and Andy Van Hekken are the only Detroit starters guaranteed rotation spots, a decision I question considering Maroth's utterly unremarkable minor league career. He never even posted a strikeout rate above 5.0 in any full minor league season, and he never exceeded a K:BB of 1.8 until 2002. Now I understand why Detroit promoted him as he went 8-1 on a 51:22 K:BB in 73.1 IP with 53 H and 7 HR in 11 starts at AAA Toledo, however this was the first time he either displayed decent dominance or really good control. Perhaps the only promising stat he posted in the majors was a 1.64 G-F, so he won't be overly impacted by the decision to move the left field fence more than 20 feet closer to home plate. Maroth's lack of strikeouts, coupled with the woeful Tigers' offense, leaves him with very little upside for 2003, and I don't recommend drafting him unless he only costs a couple bucks and you can reserve him at your leisure for a more reliable middle reliever.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gary Glover		7	1	5.20	1.36	70	52	136	138.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		3		6		R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	3		4		6		R

The trade for Colon and signing of Tom Gordon and Rick White leave Glover fighting for one of no more than two bullpen openings in Chicago. Although he's demonstrated solid skills as both a starter and reliever, he's a more dominant pitcher with greater upside out of the pen. Over his two year major league career, he's compiled a 5.73 ERA on 91:59 K:BB in 173 IP with 177 H and 32 HR in 33 starts; his ERA drops to 3.43 on a 42:25 K:BB in 65.2 IP with 57 H and 5 HR allowed when he relieves. So while Glover should emerge as a decent middle reliever over the next couple of years, he also might benefit from more development time in the minors. At this time he's only a decent reserve pick considering he's unlikely to net many wins or saves and there's no guarantee he'll post helpful qualitative numbers.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Johnson		5	0	4.59	1.39	97	41	141	131.1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		3		0		5
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	4		5		2		3

Johnson suffered from a remarkable series of fluke injuries in 2002, though tendinitis in his throwing shoulder around the trading deadline is cause for mild concern heading into next season. Fortunately a 6.4 K/9 is the best mark of his career, as is a 2.8 BB/9 and a 1.18 G-F, the last mark continuing a promising four-year trend of improvement. I suspect his 1.3 homer rate to drop close to 1.0, and despite a worrisome reverse platoon split, he possesses the skills for definite breakout. Ten wins and a sub-4.00 ERA look like attainable marks given his current skill trends, making Johnson an intriguing sleeper in most leagues.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Runelvys Hernandez		4	0	4.30	1.34	46	22	79	75.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	2		3

The best news for the Royals' likely Opening Day starters is that he pitched a total of only 236.2 professional innings prior to the 2002 season. Following three years in the Dominican Summer League, Hernandez moved to A Burlington(MWL), where he compiled a 7-5 record on 100:29 K:BB in 100.2 IP with 94 H and 5 HR. So instead of letting him mature for another season at high-A, Kansas City promoted him to AA after only two starts at A+ Wilmington(Car). Fortunately he remained quite effective at AA Wichita, posting a 8-3 mark on 86:24 K:BB in 106.1 IP with 96 H and 3 HR over 14 GS(16G). Then, even when they had AAA pitchers like Kiko Calero who merited a call-up Kansas City, the skipped Hernandez past AAA for 12 Major League starts. He effectively spent only a half-season in the upper minors while almost doubling his workload. A 1.78 G-F is merely one of very promising marks he posted in the majors, but Hernandez desperately needs at least another half-year at AAA unless the Royals don't mind him likely posting a 5.00+ ERA in 2003. While he's an excellent long-term acquisitions if you don't mind the injury risk, I wouldn't expect him to break $5 of roto value this year.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Rupe		5	0	5.60	1.20	67	25	83	90
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		3		-4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	3		3		-1		1

Boston nabbed a potential gem when they grabbed Rupe after Tampa dumped him. He's fairly likely to spend much of the year in the minors given the impressive pitching depth the Red Sox have assembled this offseason, but only injury problems look likely to keep him from emerging as a positive contributor in either the rotation or bullpen. Tampa's terrible bullpen and defense provided little support for Rupe, and since a 1.1 HR/9 also seems elevated considering his 1.68 G-F, his ERA should have been over two runs lower. View Rupe as a prime breakout candidate if given a regular role in Boston, and he'll only cost a couple bucks since I doubt you'll face much competition in bidding for him.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Frank Castillo		6	1	5.07	1.42	112	58	174	163.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		2		9		4
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	3		4		9		6

While Castillo's not a bad pitcher and could help many teams as roster filler, he's neither particularly useful for Boston nor fantasy teams. He allows too many baserunners without striking out a sufficient number of hitters, although his 1.16 G-F is decent. Even as a long reliever he should win another half-dozen games without destroying your qualitative numbers, however you shouldn't need to gamble on Castillo in most leagues when superior middle relievers are normally freely available.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mickey Callaway		2	0	4.19	1.22	23	11	31	34.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	1		0		-3

Anaheim rectified the poor decision to trade Seth Etherton for Wilmy Caceres two years ago by Caceres to Tampa Bay for the unheralded Callaway a season later. While he spent part of the year on the DL for the third time in the last three seasons, he dominated in one of the best hitters' parks in baseball at AAA Salt Lake(PCL) when healthy. Callaway posted a 9-2 record on 75:22 K:BB in 91.1 IP with 79 H and 7 HR before filling Aaron Sele's rotation spot for six starts at the end of the season. He remained rather effective in his first extended big league look, even posting a stellar 3.00 G-F in addition to solid primary skills. I believe he's out of options, and since he's Anaheim's best available starter if one of their rotation members goes down, he should stay with the club all year as a spot starter and long reliever if they don't trade him. He's certainly worth a couple bucks if you have an open roster spot since he could approach double-digit value in a full-time role.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Davis		1	0	1.84	1.09	11	4	12	14.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	0		0

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Davis.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Travis Driskill		8	0	4.95	1.49	78	48	150	132.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2

Jess identified Driskill as a solid minor league free agent sleeper last offseason, so we wound up ranking him 83rd on our AL Fantasy Prospect list, just behind Miguel Olivo and ahead of Mike Restovich and Brendan Donnelly. Unfortunately he didn't display the necessary skills once promoted to the majors for us to view him as more than occasional AAAA roster filler. Baltimore has 12 spots already reserved for more established major leagues after signing Hentgen, Daal, and Ligtenberg, so unless they deal Ponson, Johnson, Erickson, or a reliever, neither Driskill nor logical 5th starter John Stephens will break camp with the team. You can use Driskill if necessary when he's in the majors if he continued displaying solid control at AAA, however I'll be surprised if he ever earns more than a couple bucks.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Sele		8	0	4.89	1.49	82	49	190	160
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		16		9
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	2		2		16		10

Sele missed the last month of the season and the playoffs after partially tearing his rotator cuff, though he had surgery and should be mostly healthy for the start of the season. Of course his skills were quite poor even when healthy as his strikeout rate dropped and his walk, hit, and homer rates increased. While a 10.7 hit rate looks high and should drop, his poor command and recent injury makes him a risky pick. Only gamble on Sele if you can reserve him at your leisure and he's available near Dollar Days.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rafael Soriano		0	1	4.56	1.29	32	16	45	47.1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1				R
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	1		0				R

Injury troubles have kept him from pitching more than 140 innings in any of his four professional seasons, so hopefully the Mariners either will leave him in the bullpen or let him pitch at least a couple months at AAA. Soriano's very solid performance after jumping from AA certainly appears impressive even if he posted a poor .54 G-F and 1.5 HR/9. His numbers at AA San Antonio(TL) of a 2-3 record on 52:15 K:BB in 46.2 IP over 8GS(10G) with 32 H and 6 HR look rather similar to his Major League stats, suggesting he'd definitely benefit from more development time. Soriano's close to emerging as a solid starter if he stays healthy, but his questionable track record indicates you shouldn't gamble more than a couple bucks if he starts the year with the Mariners; however feel free to draft him highly if Seattle send him down.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Suppan		9	0	5.32	1.43	109	68	229	208
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		1		10		4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	3		3		10		6

Never a dominant pitcher since reaching the majors, Suppan's strikeout rate has crashed from 5.3 to 4.7 over the past three seasons even as his walk rate has dropped from 3.5 to 2.9. Yet he's also held his G-F between 1.30 and 1.40 over the same time period despite a homer rate ranging from 1.1 to 1.5. Suppan's detractors probably don't recognize that he's pitched in one of the worst pitchers' parks in baseball over the past few years, and a move to a team with a decent defense, offense, and better ballpark could send his value shooting upward. He's approached decent command numbers in the past and he just turned 28 at the beginning of Janary. I definitely think he could approach double-digit value on the right team, making him an intriguing sleeper as long as he doesn't wind up somewhere like Colorado or back in Kansas City.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Tallet		1	0	1.50	1.08	5	4	9	12
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	0		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Cleveland Prospects for comments on Tallet.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Wilson		6	0	4.83	1.48	111	67	219	193.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		0		10		8
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	2		3		12		8

The first overall pick in 1994, Wilson dominated his opposition while needing only one-and-a-half seasons to reach the majors. Unfortunately overwork destroyed his arm, and after hitting the DL in 1996, spent nearly all of the next three seasons off the field. He's displayed intriguing skills since joining Tampa Bay, but he regressed in most areas this year as hitters compiled an .830 OPS against him. The good news is that he's joining Cincinnati, and if the Reds can give Jimmy Haynes value, Wilson should hit double-digits as long as he stays healthy. I think gambling more than several dollars on him is a mistake, especially since only following former fellow phenom Jason Isringhausen to the bullpen should insure Wilson's continued health, however he still owns the skills necessary to provide a welcome roto contribution for a season or two as a starter.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Van Hekken		1	0	3.00	1.47	5	6	38	30
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	1		0
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	0		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Detroit Prospects for comments on Van Hekken.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: A few of these young pitchers with noticeable ERA or WHIP problems will be available in even deep keeper leagues for only a couple bucks. While you obviously should target pitchers with good skills or a likelihood of improvement, feel free to draft one or two of these guys in Dollar Days as long as you can reserve them at your leisure. These guys could light up your qualitative stats but you could net a fantastic keeper if you get a little lucky. AL Starters who were drafted for $3 for less in an experts' leagues yet earned at least a $5 profit include Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Kenny Rogers, Ismael Valdes, Mark Redman, Ryan Franklin, Ted Lilly, Sidney Ponson, John Lackey, and Casey Fossum. Although several starters from today earned only a couple bucks of profit, at least a couple of them should emerge as great keepers and therefore excellent trade bait by next June.