Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers from $5 to $9 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Johan Santana		8	1	2.99	1.23	137	49	84	108.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		13
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	11		16

Santana started 14 of his 27 games, and while his 12.8 K/9 as a reliever is superb, his 10.7 K/9 as a starter ranks him among the couple most dominant starters in baseball; his 13.8 K/9 at AAA this year also nicely corroborates his major league numbers. He's not a burnout risk after spending 2000 as a Rule 5 pick, and his strikeout potential makes him almost essential in 5x5 leagues, especially if his perceived value is down in the draft as he's currently only the Twins' lefty long reliever. Of course Minnesota recognizes he's a potential gem, and since his 4.1 walk rate and .70 G-F aren't superb marks, another half-season in the bullpen wouldn't hurt him. However four of the five Twins' starters spent time on the DL last year, Reed is 37, Mays is unproven, and both Radke and Milton were overworked for much of their careers. The odds of Santana starting at least 20 games in 2003 look very favorable, and regardless of his projected role as of your draft, his long-term upside makes him a good buy anywhere under the high teens, and an excellent buy in the low double digits.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Milton		13	0	4.84	1.19	121	30	173	171
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		13		11		18
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	10		14		13		19

I'm not too worried about a recurrence of Milton's 2002 injury problems since he appeared mostly recovered by the end of the season. Perhaps his injury will finally reduce his perceived value for most owners; Milton bidding always seems to push $20 or more with everyone expecting a great breakout even though he's never sniffed $20. His strikeout rate has fallen for two straight years and he remains an extreme flyball pitcher. Fortunately he hasn't walked even three guys per game since his rookie season, so he continues to earn about $5 yearly based on his WHIP contribution alone. However since I don't expect Minnesota to provide more defensive help for him anytime soon and there's no indication he'll allow less than two-dozen homers in 2003, bidding above the low teens is unwarranted.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roger Clemens		13	0	4.35	1.31	192	63	172	180
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		12		16		20
2002 Age: 40	5x5:	12		17		18		18

Clemens' 9.6 K/9 is his best mark since 1998 and his other skill ratios look right in line with his marks since joining the Yankees. The two main differences between his 2002 performance and his solid across-the-board performance in 2001 are that his ERA jumped from 3.85 to 6.29 on the road and right-handers posted a .772 OPS against him instead of a .690. However since his skills remained intact, I'm comfortable attributing most of that performance to bad luck. Only general concerns about his age, health, and the Yankees' defense and bullpen keep us from predicting a complete rebound, though bouncing back into the low double digits with another dozen wins and an ERA around 4.00 appears likely.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Redman		8	0	4.21	1.29	109	51	211	203
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	8		12		-2		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	9		13		0		3

Redman will benefit from moving to a decent pitchers' park in Florida, where the fleet Marlins' outfield corps will help limit the negative effects of a mediocre 1.01 G-F. Unfortunately Jeff Torborg works his pitchers harder than anyone in the NL aside from Bob Brenly and Dusty Baker, and not only did Redman miss most of 2001 due to arm problems, his 203 IP in 2002 were more than 50 above his previous career-high. Consequently, while I think he's quite capable of posting a sub-4.00 ERA, a dozen wins, and some fairly impressive overall numbers, I find it more likely that Redman will barely exceed 100 innings due to injury. Don't draft him unless you're comfortable dealing him by the end of May.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
C.C. Sabathia		13	0	4.37	1.36	149	88	198	210
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	8		11		11		13
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	10		14		14		13

Cleveland's taken decent care of Sabathia, although he's on track to accumulate about 500 major league innings before his 23rd birthday. Despite striking out over two batters less per game, Sabathia managed decent improvements in his G-F, homer, and walk rates, so we should be fairly optimistic regarding his immediate upside. Of course, I don't expect a great season because most teams don't rely on 23-year-olds as their workhorse aces and his declining dominance really worries me. Sabathia may be the ultimate high-risk, high-upside AL starter this year, but there are not sufficient positive trends here to warrant a significant bid. Anything above the high single-digits is too risky, so don't plan on rostering him.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chuck Finley		11	0	4.15	1.37	174	78	183	190.2
CLE/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		11		5		4
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	10		14		7		4

Finley dominated during his two months in the NL, posting an 83:30 K:BB in 85.1 IP with 69 H and 7 HR, suggesting his 3.80 ERA was unreasonably high. Overall he managed another excellent strikeout total without allowing an abundance of baserunners, a remarkable accomplishment considering his very public personal problems. He'll return to double-digit value once more if he finds a team with a good ballpark and solid defense like Seattle or San Diego with the latter looking like the best fit to me. However, he also might wait until May before returning to the Cardinals. Feel free to bid to $10 if he stays in the NL, and specifically target him in 5x5 leagues regardless of his eventual destination.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ted Lilly		5	0	3.69	1.11	77	31	80	100
NYY/OAK		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		10		-1		R
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	7		10		0		R

Even though Theodore Roosevelt Lilly's strikeout rate fell to 6.9 this year after three years over 9.0, Lilly still displays solid promise as Oakland will provide him with stable offensive support. We can safely predict 160 or more innings for him, as there's no evidence his shoulder will continue to bother him. He held lefties to a meager .516 OPS while right-handers posted a .740 OPS against him, and while he'd be more effective if limited to a middle relief role, he'll contribute more as a starter despite allowing a lot of homers due to a poor .68 G-F. His value could rise into the mid-teens, but you only guarantee a profit with a single-digit bid.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kyle Lohse		13	0	4.23	1.39	124	70	181	180.2
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10		-3
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	8		12		-1		4

Lohse derived half of his value from his 13 wins, though he did provide mild contributions in the qualitative categories. The great news here is that he posted remarkably better numbers after the All-Star Break. Following a 64:41 K:BB in 97.2 IP with 112 H, 13 HR, and a 5.25 ERA before July, he compiled a 60:29 K:BB in 83 IP with 69 H, 13 HR, and a 3.04 ERA after the Break. He held right-handers to a .633 OPS in 2002, but left-handers crushed him for a .908 OPS, and since he faced roughly the same number of batters from either side, he'll need to develop an out pitch for lefties if he wants to grow into a solid starter. Fortunately there's sufficient skill growth here to suggest continued improvement, and though I wouldn't bid into double digits for him, he could manage an ERA very close to 4.00 in 2003.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Danys Baez		10	6	4.41	1.46	130	82	160	165.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		10		19		7
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	9		12		20		9

Despite a promising debut as a starter, Baez will return to the bullpen and move into the closer's role due to Cleveland's shortsightedness. He experienced severe control problems in September after leaving the rotation, yet his 2001 performance suggests he could dominate while racking a few dozen saves. Baez struck out over a batter per inning as a reliever in 2001 and posted relatively solid skill ratios across-the-board. He's an easy $20 buy since I don't see a capable alternative on the Indians, but don't plan on keeping him at that salary in 2004 since I expect a healthy (and signed) Wickman to resume closing.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sidney Ponson		7	0	4.09	1.34	120	63	172	176
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		9		-3		2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	8		11		-1		2

Ponson posted a career low ERA by well over a half point as well as career-best hit, homer, and G-F rates. A 6.1 K/9 also ties his best mark from the last five years, and a 3.2 walk rate doesn't overly concern me. What the Orioles don't seem to realize as they negotiate a one-year deal with the intention he'll leave as a free agent at the end of the year is that he's the best starter developed in the Orioles' system since Mike Mussina debuted 12 seasons and six managers ago. He only won seven games because Baltimore provided him with the fourth-worst run support in the league at just over 4 runs per game. With positive trends in nearly every skill and the promise of a mid-season trade to a contender to help boost his wins, Ponson should finish in the mid-teens as long as he doesn't continue breaking down due to the abuse suffered earlier in his career. Only his health stands in the way of him emerging as a solid #2 starter that anyone would love to own.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Kennedy		8	0	4.53	1.32	109	55	204	196.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	6		9		6		5
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	7		10		7		6

Kennedy's command disintegrated in the second half, going from a 75:28 K:BB in the first half to a disastrous 34:27 K:BB after the All-Star Game. Only a drop in his homer rate from 1.2 to .9 kept his ERA from rising over 5.00. Of course a falling G-F ratio indicates his homer rate will rise above his current 1.1 mark, and his limited strikeouts don't indicate much upside. Kennedy is a decent #3 or #4 starter but the Devil Rays view him as their ace, and since Tampa's already downgraded offensively at three positions without improving anywhere, there's nothing to suggest he'll improve upon these numbers in 2003.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Lackey		9	0	3.66	1.35	69	33	113	108.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		9
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	6		9				R

Lackey is a definite injury risk after pitching 188.1, 185, and 210 innings in his first three full professional seasons. I'm also not sure of his immediate upside even if he stays healthy since he didn't display much dominance in his rookie year. Lackey posted a surprising reverse platoon split in which he held lefties to a .504 OPS while right-handers compiled an .887 mark against him. However, he allows few homers and walks few batters, and while we'll see some erosion in all facets of Anaheim's performance, Lackey will push 15 wins with solid qualitative numbers if he doesn't spend too much time on the DL.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Radke		9	0	4.72	1.22	62	20	124	118.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		8		16		19
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	6		8		16		18

While Radke finally took his long-awaited trip to the DL and failed to start at least 32 games for the first time since his debut in 1995, he also roughly maintained all his skills when healthy. His wins were even a little high thanks to the second-best run support of his career. I suspect many owners might be wary of him in 2003 due to the combination of a weak ERA and his injury troubles, but nothing in these numbers indicates his qualitative numbers shouldn't rebound and he only battled a strained groin much of the year, not arm problems. Consequently though a return to $20 is unlikely, I'll be very surprised if he at least doesn't reach the mid-teens.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jon Garland		12	0	4.58	1.41	112	83	188	192.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		2		1
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	7		9		3		3

I'm almost surprised he managed positive value in 2002 since his skills remain fairly poor, but 5.00 runs per game of support in 33 starts was sufficient for a dozen wins, which accounted for two-thirds of his roto value. However I haven't seen too many pitchers thus far that improved their strikeout rates(5.2 '02; 4.7 01), walk rates(3.9 '02; 4.2 '01), hit rates(8.8 '02; 9.5 '01), and homer rates(1.1 '02; 1.2 01). While a drop in Garland's G-F from two seasons of 1.40+ to 1.14 suggests his homer rate will rise, I'm impressed by his overall development even if lefties compiled an .832 OPS against him. The bad news for Sox fans is that, based on the normal development pattern for a high school pitcher, 2002 should have been Garland's rookie year, and instead he'll be eligible for arbitration at the end of 2003. Fortunately for roto owners, he's starting to fulfill his promise and should approach $10 of value in 2003, and I doubt he'll cost half that much in many leagues.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Burkett		13	0	4.53	1.44	124	50	199	173
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		12		4
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	7		9		14		12

Burkett experienced the general deterioration expected of someone leaving Atlanta for Boston. Now he likely won't remain in the rotation through the end of 2003 as all the discussion of the Red Sox adding a starter is with the intent of upgrading on Burkett as Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, and Fossum own secure spots. He struck out over a batter less per game while his hit and homer rates skyrocketed, and we can't expect much of a rebound since he turned 38 in November and had slumped before he joined the Braves. Burkett will be lucky to earn Positive Draft Value next year since almost all of his 2002 contribution rests in his win total, suggesting you probably should avoid him altogether and certainly shouldn't spend more than a buck or two on him even if you're desperate for innings.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I would be quite surprised if the majority of today's pitchers returned to this same value level next year. Aside from perhaps a couple of young veterans like Sabathia and Kennedy, most of the other guys here are either likely to reach double digits, such as Santana, Lilly, Ponson, and Lackey, or probably will fall below even $5 due to age and skill questions (Burkett and Maroth). Only a couple of younger guys on the upswing like Lohse and Garland look to remain at this level of value for another season. Plan to spend about $9 on a few pitchers like Santana and Ponson for starting rotation depth after securing maybe one expensive guy and before buying a couple of two-buck flyers.