Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with PDV of $10 to $16

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ramon Ortiz		15	0	3.77	1.18	162	68	188	217.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		23		5		5
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	17		25		7		6

Ortiz improved his marks in nearly every category as he gave the Angels a strong #2 pitcher while keying their playoff push. Perhaps the three years of maturity he gained last offseason in agegate helped him to finally fulfill the lofty expectations surrounding him for the past several years. He's not really an injury risk since his workload looks more reasonable for an older prospect, and Anaheim seems likely to give him similar offensive support for another season. The only major worry here is that his G-F, which dropped from 1.31 to 1.04 and led to a rise in his homer rate from 1.1 to 1.7, will keep him from emerging as a dominant ace. However a 6.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 are very promising marks on his development curve, and I think he possesses the necessary abilities to reach $20 in 2003.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Mussina		18	0	4.05	1.19	182	48	208	215.2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	16		23		29		32
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	17		25		30		27

Our preseason pick as a CY favorite and likely top AL starter didn't pan out here as Mussina experienced surprising consistency struggles. His G-F ratio, at 1.39 or higher his last four years in Baltimore, slammed down to 1.02 in 2001, so when it stayed at 1.08 in 2002, a jump in his homer rate from .8 to 1.1 shouldn't have surprised us. The other troubling sign is a drop in his strikeout rate from 8.4 to 7.6 in the last year, and while the Yankees provided him solid run support, their increasingly porous defense caused a jump in his hit rate from 8.0 to 8.7. I think he can reach $20 since his ERA looks a little inflated to me, but there's no indication he's ready to reemerge as one of the best few pitchers in baseball.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Wells		19	0	3.75	1.24	137	45	210	206.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	16		22		3		8
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	16		23		4		10

Recipient of the best run support in baseball by more than a half-run per game at 7.46, Wells almost won 20 games despite the rapid approach of his 40th birthday. He continued to exhibit great control by walking less than two batters a game, and he still kept his strikeout rate around 6.0 K/9. The only downside here is due to his age and injury history, as I don't see any significant problem in his skill. While he might slip to 15 wins, a 4.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, and a return to $20 is very unlikely, any bid in the mid-teens looks perfectly reasonable for Boomer.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rodrigo Lopez		15	0	3.57	1.19	136	62	172	196.2
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		22
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	16		23

Lopez is a perfect example of why teams should pay more attention to minor league free agents. While no one expected this performance from him, he'd displayed solid skills for years and looked ready to contribute in some capacity, which is why we placed him on our Top 150 AL Fantasy Prospects for 2002 list a year ago. Granted, we slotted him at #134 between Angel Santos and Joe Mauer, well behind even fellow Baltimore minor league free agent signees Travis Driskill and Lee Marshall, but we recognized his potential to contribute as an Ultra pick ahead of more traditional prospects like Mauer, Seung Song, and Bobby Jenks. We're somewhat concerned about his ability to repeat his performance since his innings tripled from an injury-plagued 2001, however he also wasn't notably abused by Baltimore. His skills are relatively solid across the board aside from a slight homer problem, and though I'm not comfortable predicting he'll build upon this breakout, I also don't expect his value to slip below the teens.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Weaver		11	2	3.52	1.21	132	48	193	199.2
DET/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		22		12		15
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	16		23		12		13

Weaver was the fourth most abused pitcher in baseball in 2002, however over 97% of that abuse occurred during his 17 starts in Detroit. New York intelligently babied him both when starting and by moving him to the bullpen, and a couple months spent in relief next season will only further increase his long-term upside. He's an essential part of the Yankees' future as their only starter under 30. We can expect his win total to rise if he's starting since he received the sixth worst run support among AL starters, and as only his strikeout rate is lower than we'd prefer, I don't see any reason not to own him. Hope for more reports of him staying in relief as they'll only lower his cost at the draft, and owners in keeper leagues specifically should target him as he should earn a 2003 value in the mid-teens while likely rising above $20 for the next couple of years.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joel Pineiro		14	0	3.24	1.25	136	54	189	194.1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		21		18		15
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	16		23		18		10

Leaving him in the bullpen for the first few weeks of the season kept his workload below a truly horrendous level, but he still increased his innings by a third from 2001 before turning 24 during the last week of the season. Even though most of his skills improved and he emerged as a solid #3 starter for Seattle, Pineiro looks like a noteworthy injury risk and should fail to break 200 innings. Exceeding the mid-teens in bidding is an extremely risky strategy.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rick Reed		15	0	3.78	1.16	121	26	192	188
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		21		2		9
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	15		22		4		11

Reed's strength is exceptional control that allows him to post walk rates under 2.0 on a consistent basis. Unfortunately we can't expect him to lower a 1.2 walk rate that already was the culmination of three consecutive years of improvement. He's allowed increasingly more flyballs over the same time period, leaving him primed for a further home run and ERA spikes. The Twins' offense looks likely to slip somewhat in 2002, and I doubt their bullpen will remain quite so effective. Since Reed's also 37 with a growing injury history, you shouldn't risk any bid above the low double digits.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cory Lidle		8	0	3.89	1.20	111	39	191	192
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		23		16
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	12		17		21		16

While Lidle compiled a stunning set of six August starts in which he went 5-0 with a .20 ERA in 45.1 IP with 23 H and a 28:9 K:BB, he barely bettered a 4.00 ERA in any other month. Of course the major difference between his performance before the All-Star break and his stats after the break is that his hit rate dropped from 11.8 to 6.5, a change we primarily can attribute to Oakland's defensive improvement after adding Ellis and moving Justice to left field. Lidle looks likely to keep an ERA well under 4.00 under most circumstances but Toronto doesn't possess the best defense in the league and his hit rate might not drop. My other worry is that his G-F ratio has dropped from 2.76 in 2000 to 1.81 last year and now a 1.42, suggesting that his homer rate, which had fallen to .8 after two seasons above 1.1, will snap upward. He's certainly not a bad pick and could post career-best numbers, but expecting more than 12 wins with similar qualitative numbers seems overly optimistic.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Orlando Hernandez		8	1	3.64	1.14	113	36	131	146
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		9		3
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	12		17		10		5

I've seen dozens of explanations in the week since the Colon trade for why Hernandez will fail in Montreal and the Expos got a horrible deal, however I've seen essentially no discussion of his prospects using anything more than insubstantial rumors about Hernandez's concentration. My only major concern regarding him is his unknown age (probably 36) and persistent threat of injury. We should see a slight drop in his 1.0 homer rate thanks to the move to the NL even though he remains a consistent flyball pitcher. As he also held a 7.0 strikeout rate while dropping his walk rate to 2.2, he demonstrated better overall skills than Colon. The Expos could find themselves with a great bargain if he stays healthy, and all the negative talk surrounding him should drive down his price. Any bid between $10 and $15 should net a profit, though I wouldn't bid into the upper teens since he's only started 30 games once in his five-year career.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Freddy Garcia		16	0	4.39	1.30	181	63	227	223.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		19		25
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	13		19		19		22

Grouping Garcia's odd-numbered seasons together and his even-numbered seasons together helps explain the variation in his ERA:

Year	ERA	OBA	BB/9	HR/9	G-F
1999	4.07	.263	4.0	.8	1.40
2001	3.05	.225	2.6	.6	1.45

2000	3.91	.241	4.6	1.2	1.15
2002	4.39	.260	2.5	1.2	1.13

In his seasons with a 1.40+ G-F, he allowed relatively few homers, and the difference in his ERA between the two years appears directly tied to less baserunners in 2001, which is primarily a function of superior defense. When his G-F falls to 1.15 or worse, his homer rate increases by 50%, and his ERAs are fairly close in both years since he allowed roughly the same number of baserunners. The most promising mark of his 2002 season is a strikeout rate that shot to 7.3 K/9, and since he also posted a career-best walk rate, he seems primed for a career year if he can post a solid G-F mark similar to his other two odd-numbered years. As Seattle's defense should perk up with the speedy Randy Winn in left and an improved bench, a sub-4.00 ERA and 18 or more wins looks fairly reasonable. Feel free to bid into the upper teens for Garcia.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kenny Rogers		13	0	3.84	1.34	107	70	212	210.2
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	11		15		-1		1
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	11		16		0		R

Rogers turned 38 after the season and walked away from $5M+ a year in Texas because he unwisely listened to Scott Boras and believed he'd get more money elsewhere. However he might recoup much of the lost salary if he smartly signs with a team like Seattle and can move from the worst AL hitters' park to one of the best. A career-best 2.02 G-F suggests his .9 homer rate could continue falling, and while a career-low 4.6 strikeout rate is troublesome, he isn't allowing an abundance of baserunners. Although Rogers doesn't possess an impressive statistical history, I'd be happy to take a chance on him in most parks since he should be able to hold double-digit value for another year or two and I'll be surprised if it costs you $10 or more to acquire him.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Pettitte		13	0	3.27	1.31	97	32	144	134.2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		15		12		16
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	10		15		14		15

We expected a breakout last year and instead he missed most of the first half with elbow tendinitis. Of course he still posted the second-best ERA of his career and won over half his starts for only the second time in the last five years. Now he's pitching for a new contract as he's a free agent at the end of the season and the Yankees have no left-hander signed for 2004. Pettitte bizarrely has lowered his homer rate for four straight years while simultaneously lowering his G-F for the same four years, so an abrupt spike in his homer rate seems likely. He's never been a dominant pitcher but his control has been rather good the last couple years, so he easily could reach $20 or more if his elbow tenderness doesn't return. Limit yourself to bids in the upper teens to guard against injury.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Appier		14	0	3.92	1.35	132	64	191	188.1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		14		18		9
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	11		16		19		9

Anaheim's swap of Mo Vaughn for Appier ranks as one of the best deals of last off-season as Vaughn's salary covered both Appier and DH replacement Brad Fullmer, obtained for only Brian Cooper. While Appier dominated at times, he also lacked the consistency the Angels expected and he could slip to their #4 starter by the end of the season if Washburn, Ortiz, and Lackey continue improving. His second-half surge from a 4.69 ERA to a 3.15 mark was entirely due to his hit rate dropping from 10.8 to 7.4 H/9, and a repeat of the latter mark looks very unlikely. I think another dozen wins or more in 2003 looks reasonable, yet with his ERA probably moving back over 4.00 due to potential rise in his homer rate, bidding beyond the very low double-digits is a bad gamble.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ismael Valdes		8	0	4.18	1.23	102	47	194	196
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		14		0		3
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	10		15		2		7

Valdes' 2003 roto ceiling looks fairly limited since his return to Texas means he remains in a terrible pitchers' park. The only overly positive mark in his 2002 stats was a 2.2 walk rate, however a career-worst 4.7 strikeout rate leaves him without much upside. A healthier group of Rangers' position players should provide sufficient offense for him to win around a dozen games, but don't expect too much qualitative help as only his WHIP should be decently below the league average.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Eight of today's fifteen pitchers ended the season at age 30 or younger. Since pitchers generally peak later than hitters, a couple of these guys like Ramon Ortiz, Lidle, Pettitte, and even potentially Ismael Valdes all could experience improvements in their performance as their skills mostly suggest gradual improvement that could lead to a spike in overall effectiveness. Leave most of the potentially DL-bound youngsters to other owners as I'd expect a Lidle or Pettitte to reach $20 or more before a Rod Lopez or Pineiro.