Today's Fantasy Rx

Last year's Pitcher Month, due to the necessary brevity of discussing all pitchers in four weeks, wound up leaving out a couple dozen pitchers who made the majors this year and didn't include the level of detail I prefer in my articles. We also weren't planning on another set of either Fantasy Game Reviews or Baseball Magazine Reviews at least until 2004. Therefore I'm going to spend the necessary time to provide commentary on everyone who pitched in AA, AAA, and the majors in 2002.

In March we'll release and discuss our projections, and we also expect to review the LABR and Tout drafts, as well as the first couple of drafts in which we participate. Jess will continue covering most of the major transaction and roster developments in her column, while I'll look at specific fantasy developments in Your Daily Rx when appropriate. We'll release our BBW Challenge rosters at the end of March, and then I'll begin my standard set of in-season article weeks during April.

I'll probably only discuss a dozen or so pitchers each day for the next week or two as we strive to complete the articles and site improvements that were delayed over the holidays. As always, feel free to send us all your questions and comments; while we apologize if we haven't responded to your messages recently, we hope to catch up on e-mail within the next week.

Like last year, we'll use a simple formula to separate starters from relievers to make these reviews easier to use. If a pitcher appeared in the majors and started in half or more of his appearances, he's listed as a starter; everyone else will be left in the roto bullpen. The same general premise will be used to divide minor leaguers, so if a pitcher's total games started between all minor league levels are at least half of his total appearances, he'll be listed with starter prospects for simplicity. Since most pitchers will shift between starting and relieving at least once, this delineation is intended to simplify grouping of pitchers rather than as an objective evaluation of their skills. All such comments will remain in the review.

American League Starting Pitchers with PDV above $16

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pedro Martinez		20	0	2.26	0.92	239	40	144	199.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	29		42		21		34
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	31		45		22		35

Like the last few years, the main reason not to bid Pedro to $40 or more in 2003 is his perpetual risk of injury. Only Lowe's superior consistency and more significant innings contribution led us to choose him over Pedro for the CY. However, unlike Zito, Pedro would have been a perfectly defensible pick as he led the league in most major qualitative categories. The one surprising mark in his stats was a G-F rate that fell to 1.16 after three seasons from 1.25 to 1.44. After his homer rate rose from .4 to .6 last season, I wouldn't be surprised if he approached a 1.0 HR/9 next season, although I don't believe he'll exceed that mark. He's one of only four pitchers(Randy, Rivera, and Nen) and only two starters to currently hold a 123 LPR score. Of course, given both the likelihood he again won't reach 200 IP and the mild deterioration in his skills, I don't expect you'll see a profit on any bids near $40.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Derek Lowe		21	0	2.58	0.97	127	48	166	219.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	29		42		2		12
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	28		40		4		13

Of pitchers with enough innings in 2002 to qualify for the ERA title, Lowe's 3.46 G-F easily led the majors, and only Roy Halladay and Brian Lawrence were within 1.00 of Lowe's mark. While I think Boston's shift from Rey Sanchez to Todd Walker at second will worsen their fielding, thereby likely increasing Lowe's ERA, I don't expect a significant shift in his numbers just because of the defensive change. We completely missed this breakout season even though he demonstrated solid skills throughout his career, a rather troublesome error considering Lowe was our pick for the CY. Lowe obviously avoided both the injury we expected due to his increased workload and developed into a dominant presence among major league starters. Consequently, while I certainly don't expect him to build upon this season, I think a strong follow-up above $20 looks very reasonable if he stays healthy. Even though he received the second best run support in the AL at 6.84 R/G, Boston's likely improved offense could push Lowe to 25 wins and a more impressive showing in the CY race.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Barry Zito		23	0	2.75	1.13	182	78	182	229.1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	25		37		22		27
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	26		38		23		21

Zito managed two more wins than Derek Lowe despite slightly worse run support. However he posted worse numbers in almost every qualitative category, and his workload is quite troublesome. He threw at least 110 pitches in 12 outings last year, a total unmatched by any other major league pitcher below age 25. Plus, his strikeout rate, homer rates, and G-F ratio all slipped. So even though he avoided the DL in 2002, we again expect him to miss time due to injury next season. I wouldn't exceed $20 in bidding for him, and as I doubt any league will let the reigning AL Cy Young winner go for anything in the teens, don't plan on rostering Zito this year.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Halladay		19	0	2.93	1.19	168	62	223	239.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	22		32		17		16
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	23		34		18		20

A study at Baseball Prospectus a year ago compared Halladay's 2001 breakout very favorably with a group of Hall of Famers and longtime veterans. He obviously fulfilled many of our expectations, and if he avoids another late-season burnout, he should rank among the top three pitchers in the league. Unfortunately he experienced notable skill deterioration, particularly in his strikeout and homer rates, as his major league workload more than doubled. At least he held his walk rate at 2.3 while increasing his G-F for the fourth straight season to a 2.75 mark, second best among AL starters. However expecting a 2003 performance worth much more than $20 looks unrealistic given the drop-off normally expected when a pitcher's innings jump by over a third. I still like Halladay's skills and expect to use him in Challenge games, but he's a definite risk in standard leagues.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jamie Moyer		13	0	3.32	1.08	147	50	198	230.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	21		31		14		14
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	21		31		14		12

After Pedro and three starters who we could consider injury risks due to their workload, Moyer should be a welcome respite from the fragile youngsters. Of course, 40-year-olds can't generally sustain this level of performance, and Moyer lacks the dominance of a Roger Clemens. I'm also troubled by a career-worst .84 G-F, which suggests that only the benefits of Safeco and a superb outfield defense keep his ERA much below 4.00. Moyer should slip back under $20 for good in 2003, but you should feel confident of most bids in the teens.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bartolo Colon		20	0	2.93	1.24	149	70	219	233.1
CLE/MON		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		30		10		20
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	21		31		13		17

Over the past three seasons Colon's strikeout rate has plummeted from 10.1 to 8.1 and now 5.7 as his walk rate has dropped from 4.7 to 3.6 to 2.7. While I'm inclined to agree that his failing dominance indicates pending injury troubles, especially considering his heavy workload early in his career, his improved effectiveness suggests that he could be emerging from a "thrower to a pitcher". Combining these potential predictions leaves me with the general thought that he can maintain his ERA and maybe even increase his win total thanks to the boost from the White Sox's offense compared to Cleveland and Montreal. However he'll also miss some time with health problems, so I don't expect him to exceed 200 innings. Since there's no reason to expect a rebound in his strikeout totals, you probably should stop bidding around $20 even in 5x5 leagues.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jarrod Washburn		18	0	3.15	1.17	139	59	183	206
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	19		28		10		16
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	19		28		11		13

Like fellow top AL West lefties Zito and Moyer, Washburn also holds one of the worst G-F ratios in baseball. He could easily snap back from .8 HR/9 to his 1.2 mark from a year ago, and since neither his strikeout nor walk rates improved, any rise in his hit rate also will boost his ERA. Washburn is a perfectly reasonable roto pick. My main concerns here are that he won't repeat his 2002 numbers and the Angels' amazing postseason run gave him significant media exposure. You likely won't roster him since any bid above the mid-teens is risky and I can't imagine him selling for less than $20 in most leagues.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Mulder		19	0	3.47	1.14	159	55	182	207.1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	19		28		20		24
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	20		29		20		19

Mulder's the only one of the top 11 AL starters who actually visited the DL in 2002, however his excellent performance after returning in May indicates his forearm strain shouldn't worry us. His walk rate rose from 2.0 to 2.4 and his homer rate increased from .6 to .9 as his G-F ratio slipped from 1.93 to 1.58. Yet his strikeout rate moved to 6.9 from 6.0, and his skills remain relatively solid across-the-board. Mulder looks like a tremendous sleeper to me since Zito will command most offseason attention after winning the CY, and Tim Hudson's an established name thanks to people comparing him to Pedro. I'm growing a little concerned that Mulder is too obvious a sleeper, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't win 20 games and finish among the top 5 AL starters in roto value. He's perhaps the only elite AL starter who will increase his value by more than just a couple bucks in 2003.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Hudson		15	0	2.98	1.25	152	62	237	238.1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		27		17		25
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	20		28		17		24

Hudson failed to earn $20 because the A's somehow only provided him with 4.90 runs of support per game, placing him below 27 other AL starters including Rod Lopez, C.C. Sabathia, Jeff Suppan, and Steve Sparks. His strikeout rate continued to fall after he posted a very good 8.7 mark his rookie season; he's down to a 5.7 after seasons of 7.5 and 6.9. I see some easy comparisons between Hudson and Bartolo Colon thanks to Hudson's plummeting strikeout rate and continually increasing workload. Fortunately Oakland generally provides better offensive support than Colon currently receives and Hudson's other skills look fine. He should bounce back to $20+ since he's unlikely to experience a second year of hard luck run support, though you should stop bidding around $20 since I don't see much immediate upside here.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Buehrle		19	0	3.58	1.24	134	61	236	239
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	18		26		17		19
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	18		26		16		16

Easily the youngest of the top AL starters, Buehrle won't even turn 24 until the end of Spring Training. He's ranked up here for two straight years despite weak strikeout totals since Chicago continues to provide him with some of the best run support in baseball. The main reason his ERA rose over 3.50 this year was that his hit rate increased from 7.6 to 8.9, yet his G-F ratio also improved from 1.10 to 1.50. My only worry regarding Buehrle is that he's accumulated a significant number of innings for a 23-year-old, so while I doubt we'll project him for much more than 200 innings, I expect he'll post similar numbers in 2003.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Byrd		17	0	3.90	1.15	129	38	224	228.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		25		0		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	18		26		1		R

Byrd deserves credit for an improbably successful season even though none of his numbers overly impress me. Fortunately Leo Mazzone's performed magic with several veteran pitchers in the past, and I think its quite possible for Byrd to maintain most of these numbers while perhaps even improving his 1.4 homer rate and .80 G-F. The only mark I don't believe he'll repeat is his 18 wins. You might be able to roster Byrd for around $15 in a lot of leagues, and while he's never sustained success in his career, his great control suggests another solid year is quite attainable.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the top 11 AL starters, six earned profits averaging almost $9 for their owners in LABR, and nine earned profits averaging $7 for their owners in Tout Wars. The average loss for the owners of the other five starters in LABR was under $4 while the average loss for the owners of Pedro and Hudson in Tout was also $4.

While owners of Ritchie, Park, Mays, Radke, Clemens, Freddy Garcia, and Mussina experienced a greater loss, Ritchie, Mays, Radke, and Garcia don't have extended track records of solid skills. Oscar Acosta torpedoed Park's season and Clemens' deterioration due to age isn't a surprise. So only Mussina's fall from elite starter status to merely an average roto season was truly surprising.

Aside from Paul Byrd, the other ten starters discussed today all have performed at an impressive level for two seasons or more. Although I have some reservations regarding potential injuries, I see no reason why the top 10 AL starters in 2002 won't generally remain near the same level of performance in 2003. Drafting at least one top 2002 AL starter looks like a fairly solid investment this year.