Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered an annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs including detailed data like G-F ratio for 2000. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we are currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this may cause you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Los Angeles Dodgers

23
by - Kevin Brown

1
ax - Odalis Perez

a
bxy - Paul Quantrill
bxy - Paul Shuey
X - Eric Gagne

b
y - Jeff Shaw
Giovanni Carrara
Jesse Orosco

x
Jeff Williams

y
Darren Dreifort

Recent Dodgers who did not qualify for any LPR score include Victor Alvarez, Andy Ashby, Kevin Beirne, Bryan Corey, Omar Daal, Robert Ellis, Orel Hershiser, Kazuhisa Ishii, Onan Masaoka, Trever Miller, Guillermo Mota, Hideo Nomo, Gregg Olson, Carlos Perez, and Dennis Springer.

Los Angeles faces some intriguing questions as they enter Spring Training with a set rotation of Kevin Brown, Odalis Perez, Hideo Nomo, Andy Ashby, and Kaz Ishii, along with Gagne closing and Quantrill and Shuey in established setup roles. Darren Dreifort probably belongs in the bullpen, but his contract and the relative fragility of the Dodgers' starters necessitates that someone remains in a sixth starter's role. Until he proves his health, Gagne's emergence leaves Dreifort as no better than the fifth starter, though continuing injury problems for Brown or Ishii may keep him in the rotation.

Almost everyone in this bullpen should be a good target as roster filler, and Shuey in particular rebounded nicely from his disastrous NL debut. Quantrill and Mota have demonstrated fairly solid skills over the past few years, so there is no reason not to look to them whenever you need roster filler as both are frequently available in many leagues.

San Diego Padres
2
abX - Brian Lawrence
Y - Jeremy Fikac

a
bX - Trevor Hoffman
x - Clay Condrey
Jonathan Johnson
Adam Eaton
Jake Peavy

b
x - Brandon Villafuerte
x - Kevin Walker
y - Tom Davey
y - David Lundquist
Mike Holtz
Jose Antonio Nunez

x
Matt DeWitt
Oliver Perez

Recent Padres who did not qualify for any LPR score include Jason Boyd, Mike Bynum, Buddy Carlyle, Eric Cyr, Domingo Guzman, Junior Herndon, Ben Howard, Kevin Jarvis, Brett Jodie, Bobby J. Jones, Bobby M. Jones, David Lee, Carlton Loewer, Chuck McElroy, Steve Montgomery, Juan Moreno, Rodney Myers, Doug Nickle, Vicente Palacios, Jason Pearson, Kevin Pickford, Carlos Reyes, Wascar Serrano, Jason Shiell, Heath Slocumb, Stan Spencer, Dennis Tankersley, Brian Tollberg, Brett Tomko, J.J. Trujillo, and Matt Whisenant.

San Diego's minor league prospect depth and willingness to look at nearly any decent AAAA player means the Padres cycle through a significant number of pitchers each season. Fortunately, we are starting to see a few gems emerge here to join Trevor Hoffman. Lawrence, Peavy, and Eaton give them three solid starters who merit attention in any league, although I expect much more immediate help from the former two, considering Eaton is still recovering from surgery. Oliver Perez also has a very high ceiling, however he poses a significant injury risk due to his youth.

I think giving Fikac to Oakland was a mistake, though happily a wealth of alternatives exists here. Condrey and Villafuerte look like solid setup guys, and Kevin Walker appears healthy and ready to emerge as quality roster filler. Hopefully San Diego will allow guys like Bynum and Tankersley to develop in the bullpen given their struggles this past season. Of course the Padres signed a half-dozen veterans like Jesse Orosco and Chuck Nagy to insure adequate depth, so we have no idea who will comprise the bottom end of the staff. San Diego remains a good place in general to find roster filler and injury replacements, but I am not sure if there is much upside to their relievers since Hoffman is obviously established and the return of Jay Witasick should make him the recipient of any extra save opportunities.

San Francisco Giants
123
abxY - Robb Nen

1
by - Jay Witasick

a
x - Tim Worrell
Jason Schmidt

b
y - Jason Christiansen
y - Felix Rodriguez
Scott Eyre
Aaron Fultz

x
Manny Aybar
Chad Zerbe

Recent Giants who did not qualify for any LPR score include Kurt Ainsworth, Troy Brohawn, Miguel del Toro, Mark Gardner, Livan Hernandez, Ryan Jensen, John Johnstone, Joe Nathan, Russ Ortiz, and Kirk Rueter.

Half of the 20 pitchers who appeared in the majors in the last three years and most recently pitched for San Francisco qualified for an LPR score, a rather impressive accomplishment unmatched by any other team in the league. Of course, practically no team possesses the combination of quality major league talent and limited roster turnover of the Giants. Three starters, Ortiz, Rueter, and Hernandez, started at least 30 games for San Francisco in each of the past three seasons, and three relievers, Robb Nen, Felix Rodriguez, and Aaron Fultz, made over 40 appearances during the same span. However, the departure of Dusty Baker, non-tendering of Fultz, and trade of Rueter obviously leave this pitching staff extremely unsettled. Both Hernandez and FRod look likely to leave within the next year for salary reasons, and while Jason Schmidt and Damian Moss should join Rueter in the rotation for a few seasons, the eventual destinations of top prospects Kurt Ainsworth, Jesse Foppert, and Jerome Williams remain uncertain. I am convinced only that Foppert will remain in the system. The other two could end up relieving or as bait for trade deadline help.

The star on this LPR list obviously is Nen, who with Randy, Pedro, and Rivera is one of the only pitchers to reach a 123abxy score. As we foresee no recurrence of his health problems in the near future, rank him highly on your closer lists. Both Witasick and Worrell possess closer-caliber skills and look like solid endgame picks. I also suspect Felix Rodriguez will see significant save ops for some team within the next two years. Since Rueter remains a poor gamble due to his weak dominance, Schmidt surprisingly is the only solid bet among San Francisco starters, considering the riskiness of counting upon WHIP-killers Hernandez and Ortiz. I would rather own any of the rookie-eligible starters here than invest in Hernandez or Rueter, however PacBell gives nearly every Giant pitcher a little value. They may possess the best pitchers' park in baseball, so taking a chance on any San Francisco hurler is probably a safer bet than rostering a similar pitcher on any other team.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams playing in Dodger Stadium and PacBell scored less runs than those in any other parks in the majors. Qualcomm also finished in the lower half of the National League in runs scored. As long as you avoid acquiring pitchers immediately prior to road trips through Colorado and Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego are perhaps the best three teams for pitching roster filler. Specifically target Dodgers and Giants earning at least an LPR score of xy or x when you only need an injury replacement for a couple weeks.